[ucodegen]

[quote=zk][quote=ucodegen]
313,000 tests completed, more than 41,000 tests positive.
That means current infection rate within population is about 13%. [/quote]

That would only be a reasonable conclusion if those tests were all given to random people. I didn’t see anything in the article to indicate that that was the case. (Correct me if I missed it.)
[/quote]
Correct, you didn’t miss it.. and that is also why I was saying that this may be an upper limit. It doesn’t handle the asymptomatic.

[quote=zk]
If tests were given to at least some of those people because those people had symptoms, then the 13% number would be high.

That said, if it’s not 13% now, it sounds to me like it could be before too long.[/quote]
I have a feeling that some are because the person actually had the flu(H1N1) fairly bad and wanted to check if it was actually COVID-19. I figure there are things that could make the number larger (new infections) and smaller (extrapolation of existing death rates ignoring the asymptomatic and mild cases that get better). I figure it is an ‘ok’ shot in the dark, certainly better than some of the panic mongering I have been seeing.

I looked at another piece of data (not completely) buried on the CDC site.. It is under the “COVID-19 cases by date of illness onset”. I think this is not ‘presumptive’ data – but proved? I extracted the table and did the sum – it definitely differs from other data values (I don’t like discrepancies)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
Note that the section “COVID-19: US at a Glance” – includes confirmed AND presumptive positive cases. I am uncomfortable with the term ‘presumptive’ when it comes to data.

[ucodegen]

Finally got some more useful info than what has been posted on various news sites. The important info is %tests shows infection and % infections resulting in death.. instead of highlighting deaths only.

From CNN – https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-23-20-intl-hnk/index.html
313,000 tests completed, more than 41,000 tests positive.
That means current infection rate within population is about 13%. Estimate using S. Koreas numbers on death rates (so far theirs is the best survey – large sample) 0.8% death rate on positive tests.

313,000 / 41,000 * (0.8 / 100) * 300Mil = 314,376 deaths.

For reference, this years flu(H1N1) caused about 19,000 deaths and the previous flu(H3N1) season caused around 80,000 deaths.

NOTE: The 314,376 number is probably an upper bound. Most tests were performed on people who felt ill (the US has been even more selective with their samples – often only the very ill)

I tend to agree with the current California Governor Gavin Newsom that the tests should be less targeted to just the very ill and should be more general to get a handle on the number of people ill out of the population as well as percentage that are largely asymptomatic vs more severe or critical.

[ucodegen]

[quote=outtamojo]Tucker Carlson of all people was actually fair and balanced about this but of the 5 senators who sold stock my always trumper coworker could only name Feinstein![/quote]
I came up with more;

[ucodegen]

[quote=FlyerInHi]So the South Koreans are able to widely test their population. But we couldn’t use their technology. We had to wait weeks to develop our own, very late in the game, even as we had all the information we needed.[/quote]

Not quite accurate, try;
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-went-wrong-with-coronavirus-testing-in-the-us

The quirk of US law is that you don’t need special clearance to produce a test on a virus until its declared a public-health emergency… then ‘new regulations take effect’… ie; politics gets in the way. The US test was available mid January because of the work the Chinese Doctor did in ‘illegally'(according to CCP’s point of view) publishing the genomic sequencing of the virus.

After the ‘new regulations took effect’;

February 4th, a new regulatory regime took effect. From that point on, any lab that wanted to conduct its own tests for the new coronavirus would first need to secure something called an Emergency Use Authorization from the F.D.A.

Another portion of article;

Jerome said that Greninger had to call and e-mail the F.D.A. multiple times to figure out what they needed to secure an E.U.A. “At one point, he was very frustrated because he’d e-mailed them what we were doing so they could review it,” Jerome said. “But legally you also had to mail a physical copy. Here we are in this SARS-CoV-2 crisis, and you have to send them something through the United States Postal Service. It’s just shocking.” (The F.D.A. has since dropped the requirement to send a CD-ROM or USB drive with a copy of the application.)

That said, there was likely too much of a NIH(Not Invented Here) with regard to using South Korean tests – though it really looks like the FDA and CDC were stumbling over stupid regulations.

another item in the article:

The F.D.A.’s exclusive authorization to the C.D.C. to conduct COVID-19 tests ended up creating “what you’d think of as an agriculture monoculture. If something went wrong, it was going to shut everything down, and that’s what happened.”

[ucodegen]

[quote=FlyerInHi]The call is from:
‭+1 (858) 795-9050‬

I believe that public Health is a county responsibility at the local level.[/quote]
Thats what ‘they’ may be claiming, however it flags as a scam number with complaints to the FTC. The data goes back more than 1 year. One of the people contacted actually got someone and they asked for a lot of personal info – enough for ID theft.

https://www.callercenter.com/858-795-9050.html#complaints
https://findwhocallsyou.com/8587959050?CallerInfo

What is weird, whitepages.com says it belongs to a person in Poway… the address looks like a business address.
https://www.whitepages.com/phone/1-858-795-9050

Another system (beenverified.com) is giving me yet another id for that number. I tend to trust callercenter.com more because it has complaints showing similar behavior to what you are noticing. beenverified does not show that info.

Last possibility would be a spoofed number – which could explain the inconsistent lookups of the holder for that number.

[ucodegen]

[quote=FlyerInHi]I keep getting phone calls from a San Diego County number. But then hangup. Looks like the county is calling citizens, but the system is not working properly.[/quote]
Is it always from the same number? Sometimes robo-callers test dial numbers to see if someone is on the other side. I always let mine ‘go to cover’ if the number is not one I recognize. I have different rings for specific people in my contacts and then a general ring for other numbers in my contacts list. A final ring-type is used for numbers that are not in my contacts list (I usually just silence the ringing in that case).

Another possibility is that they want you to call back, putting the cost of the call on you – not them. (which is also a trick that telemarketers use) An old one was to have the number you call back go to a high fee telephone line and bill the crap out of you for the call back.

I am tempted to add the multi-tone signal that represents a disconnected number to the very start of my message on the answering system to catch these test dials. I would immediately follow it with my real message also explaining that the tones are to weed out robo-callers and please leave a message. Robo-callers also use a ‘pre-dialer’ that then switches the line on pickup to one of the people in the ‘pit’ or ‘boiler room’. If the ‘pre-dialer’ gets the tones, it hangs up and removes the number(at least temporarily) from their list so that they are not wasting time on non-existent numbers.

[ucodegen]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Ucodegen, with you it seems like China can never do good. It will fail because it’s a dystopian surveillance state. When it succeeds it’s because it’s a dictatorship.[/quote]
Never said any such thing. Never said it will fail. The outcome is still unknown. I have always said there are pluses and minuses to any system.

Just keep flailing and failing away…

I have always said that appointing people who only study Poli-Sci is stupid. I also feel that people that are elected should have done substantial work outside of the political system before being elected. Instead, what I am seeing is the emergence of a ‘Political’ or ruling class in this nation when you look at the backgrounds and associations of those who are sponsored by a political party for an election.

Having a ‘Political’ class was never the intention of the founders of this nation. It was actually the exact opposite.

[ucodegen]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Interesting article on how China beat back the virus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/locked-down-in-beijing-i-watched-china-beat-back-the-coronavirus/2020/03/16/f839d686-6727-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html%5B/quote%5D
You just proved my contention that China was more of a “dystopian surveillance state”. China uses the cell phone as a spying tool. It reports your current position continually – much more effective tracking tool than anything else possible… and the people.. just.. can’t… put… the… thing… down!! or… leave… it… behind!!

Note: everything is tied to cell number in China — see quote from your own reference:

To help the nationwide social-mapping effort — and, I suspect, feed the government’s ever-growing appetite for personal data — I begrudgingly gave my mobile number to government workers at every train station, checked in via smartphone app to enter office buildings and recited my passport number just to eat at a rare restaurant that remained open.

and

As restrictions on mobility tightened last month, the lowest unit of the Chinese government that I never paid attention to — the neighborhood committees — suddenly loomed large in my life. The first day of my quarantine, workers brought me inside a district office swarming with 20- and 30-something volunteers to collect information about my identity, my travel history, my workplace.

Your original comment:
[quote=FlyerInHi]ucodegen, you’re giving China too much credit for running a dystopian surveillance state. It’s actually very easy to travel in and out of China. They just don’t tolerate critics or political dissidents. Freedom of movement is just like here in USA. The only difference is that residents cannot get social services but at their bonafide hometowns. it’s difficult to change hometown registration.[/quote]

Also look up China’s “Social Credit”. Say something that the establishment does not like, and your access to loans and jobs disappears. Imagine the US.. say something that Trump does not like and your access to loans and jobs disappears…

When I made the original comment about their surveillance state – I also was aligning it to the possibility that it was core to their faster recovery from COVID-19 and that implementing something similar would be problematic in the US and other democracies.

[ucodegen]

[quote=Coronita][quote=svelte][quote=Coronita][quote=svelte]…[/quote]

Basically, the websites are keeping a cookie in your browser. That’s why you use to be able to open a private browser and it would work because private browsers don’t keep cookies once you close them. But a lot of websites got smart and won’t let you view in a private browser now. What you can do is create a new profile in chrome that you don’t care about, and simply clear your browser history and reopen your browser.[/quote]
Or configure your browser to delete all cookies when closing/exiting the browser completely. Side effect will be the ‘keep me logged in’ on web sites will no longer work. Considering that cookie values can be snaffled up by hackers, it is not a good way to maintain a web page connection though.

[ucodegen]

[quote=spdrun]Are there limits on liquids at land points of entry to China? i.e. by train, bus, or car?[/quote]
Yes – on type, but I can’t yet confirm on volume. The ref I placed was kind of ‘generic’ but it did apply to all points of entry. I also gave a ref showing ports of entry including land and air. I didn’t check the shortest distance/time to epicenter though. You could try illicit entry, but China is a ‘check-your-papers’ at checkpoints type of country, making illicit harder.

You had jokingly mentioned North Korea as introducing the virus. I found it would easier because there is a partial trust between China and North Korea.

[ucodegen]

[quote=spdrun]ucodegen — it would have been shockingly easy for (intelligence agency of choice) to transport a virus like COVID-19 undetected, even into somewhere like China.[/quote]
You are forgetting that China is a surveillance state, with multiple inspection points (checkpoints along the roads) and use of face recognition for tracking people. China also has no equivalent of the US’s 4th Amendment. Your cell phones are even inspected for content and sometimes tracking and spyware end up being installed.[quote=spdrun]
The low lethality would be a feature, not a bug, assuming the goal was to shut down economies, not to cause a massive amount of deaths.[/quote]
It might, however low lethality would make it more of a terror weapon than tactical or strategic. The US has enough experience with working on creating bioweapons that it avoids those that are highly communicable. Highly communicable diseases can not be controlled. They end up killing both sides.
[quote=spdrun]
It’s also apparently stable in feces, urine, and liquid culture medium for 24 hours at room temperature. Sounds like it could have been brought to China in a Snapple or Gatorade bottle…

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/survival_2003_05_04/en/
[/quote]
Your reference is for SARS, not COVID-19. A quote on your SARS example.

This would indicate that the virus is more stable than the known human coronaviruses under these conditions.

Which would indicate that most coronaviruses are not as stable as SARS.

China also inspects for ‘Unsanitary Foodstuffs’ on entry, which is banned ref. I would say that faeces and urine would be considered unsanitary foodstuffs. BTW, a liquid container exceeding 2oz is not even allowed on aircraft these days, not even in the US. Even 2 oz containers going onto an aircraft are subject to sample testing. The containers you mentioned are the same size needed to make a reasonably sized bomb containing a compound called HMTD or TATP. These two compounds are part of the reason why there is a 2 oz limit on liquids on an aircraft. ‘Anonymous’ containers are watched these days. Unlike the US, if the Chinese find you transporting such a compound – the result is a bit more fatal to the one transporting than it would be in other countries. They are also more likely to find it ‘in-country’ than the US.
[quote=spdrun]Note that I’m NOT saying that COVID-19 is a bioweapon, just that smuggling a low-lethality weaponized virus into China would have been less difficult than you make it seem.[/quote]
I did not state that it was not impossible to deliver such a weapon, however not as easy as many people think – nor as easy as it would be in the US. Nothing is impossible to the truly dedicated though.

[ucodegen]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=flu]..or maybe it wasn’t from a wild animal after all….maybe it was from a lab….

“Virus-hit Wuhan has two laboratories linked to Chinese bio-warfare program”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/24/virus-hit-wuhan-has-two-laboratories-linked-chines

[/quote]

Rumors now are that the virus came from a US lab and secrets agents brought the virus to China as part of a cover operation to undermine China.
Are we capable of such things?[/quote]
Are you serious that you are approaching it that way? China is largely a closed nation. It is difficult to get anything illicit into there. It would be difficult to bring any weaponized virus into China and then all the way to Wuhan across land (NOTE: it would have to be stored in a temperature controlled manner, in a secured container). Wuhan is not a ‘port of entry’ (land, air or sea ref). On entry to China, your packages are inspected. They are also subject to potential inspection during traveling. Virus/bacteria that the US have worked on, have a death rate of 60% or higher – not the 2% to 3% we are seeing with this one. The US also long ago realized that any weaponized virus or bacteria should NOT be easily communicable – less it ends humanity and the US itself too. While China is rapidly advancing, they are still learning some of the aspects of responsibility when doing this type of research.

If anything along that line might have happened, it could have been loss of containment within one of the Chinese bio-weapon facilities. That would also explain the local Chinese governments behavior in trying to shut down the doctor who was warning people. This is even more significant when considering that after SARS, the response to potential outbreaks was supposed to be more rapid – and the local government was trying to silence a doctor trying to warn of a potential outbreak.

[ucodegen]

[quote=flu]What is interesting is the virus in Italy. That’s some explaining that needs to happen. The outbreak in Korea doesn’t surprise me because it’s primarily a religious group that had exposure in China. Japan cases are mainly from the cruise ship I think.

Still think US will be spared. I think we have a geographical advantage and less dense population.[/quote]
Virus in Italy could be from a tourist from China.. but Iran??

Maybe China’s under the table dealings with Iran to avoid the Embargo is now cursing Iran?

I think we will ‘largely’ be spared. I think the US has yet to play out. With the periodic asymptomatic behavior of this virus, it is hard to predict where problems would occur — they just ‘pop up’. I would be interested to know what causes some people to be asymptomatic. It is almost like they are immune.

[ucodegen]

[quote=flu]lol

https://www.instagram.com/p/B8ZgJPYCemU/?igshid=9faql3ctw31j%5B/quote%5D
The language they are speaking is Thai. That is a bit funny, though there is also a serious side..

I have been watching the Covid-19 outbreak and watching the ‘death rate’. In China the death rate is about 2345/76288 = 3.0% of known infections. Iran having real bad Covid-19 problem; their death rate is significantly higher than China at 12/61=19.67% (was 12/47=25.5%). Italy 6/229 = 2.62%, South Korea at 7/833 or 0.84%(must be the garlic). Total average is about 2622/79407 = 3.3%. NOTE: numbers are quickly changing.

Ref site: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/publications.html
Summary: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html

Age statistics on death rate:

80+ years = 14.8%

70-79 years = 8.0%

60-69 years = 3.6%

50-59 years = 1.3%

40-49 years = 0.4%

30-39 years = 0.2%

20-29 years = 0.2%

10-19 years = 0.2%

0-9 years = no fatalities
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

[quote=flu]Anyway, I’m adding more to my Gilead stock position today. I feel sort of bad doing so, but hey if people are going to run scared shitless about this, there’s room for speculation. [/quote]
A person after my own heart… though I have a feeling that this drop may have a bit more ‘legs’ on it. The media has been drumming repeated ‘fear-fear-fear'(drama-drama-drama) into people and speculators have been periodically trying to attack the stock prices (shown by rapid drops followed by price recoveries within a matter of two days)

[ucodegen]

[quote=Hobie]Dude, take photos and small claims for damages. Pretty simple. Send letter to owner and builder noting property line and trespass on your property. Include damage costs to this point.

If they don’t comply and pay, small claims.[/quote]
If any of the trucks have the contractor’s name/company on the trucks, track down and call the contracting company. The ‘foreman’ may not know that some of the subs are lazy, disrespectful of the neighborhood. If talking to them does not yield results, you can go for a complaint against the contractors license.

Video evidence would be very useful in this case.. photographic evidence would be second.

Vandalism of the trucks may make one feel better, however you may enter into a sh*t throwing contest with people who have better tools to do damage than you.

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