[stansd]

I’m not yet convinced that investors will swallow this pill…if I’m an owner of one of the securitized pools, I’m doing the math of how much more interest I get from keeping people in their homes who would have otherwise defaulted versus how much I lose by giving breaks to people who might have made it anyway…there’s no effective way to segment with such big incentives for the borrowers to game the system.

I can see the people in the riskiest tranches being a little more eager to go along because they are first on the hook for losses, but people further up the credit quality spectrum are going to have big problems…that means the benefits will be reaped by a narrow few, while the losses are likely to be borne by the many.

This aside, though, I don’t think it will make a lot of difference. Subprime foreclosures are a driver, but not the main one-you still have issues in prime, job losses from impending recession, and big affordability issues…this is a political stunt-it may have some positive impact on a small segment of borrowers, but it won’t slow the depreciation appreciably:)

Stan

[stansd]

I’m not yet convinced that investors will swallow this pill…if I’m an owner of one of the securitized pools, I’m doing the math of how much more interest I get from keeping people in their homes who would have otherwise defaulted versus how much I lose by giving breaks to people who might have made it anyway…there’s no effective way to segment with such big incentives for the borrowers to game the system.

I can see the people in the riskiest tranches being a little more eager to go along because they are first on the hook for losses, but people further up the credit quality spectrum are going to have big problems…that means the benefits will be reaped by a narrow few, while the losses are likely to be borne by the many.

This aside, though, I don’t think it will make a lot of difference. Subprime foreclosures are a driver, but not the main one-you still have issues in prime, job losses from impending recession, and big affordability issues…this is a political stunt-it may have some positive impact on a small segment of borrowers, but it won’t slow the depreciation appreciably:)

Stan

[stansd]

I’m not yet convinced that investors will swallow this pill…if I’m an owner of one of the securitized pools, I’m doing the math of how much more interest I get from keeping people in their homes who would have otherwise defaulted versus how much I lose by giving breaks to people who might have made it anyway…there’s no effective way to segment with such big incentives for the borrowers to game the system.

I can see the people in the riskiest tranches being a little more eager to go along because they are first on the hook for losses, but people further up the credit quality spectrum are going to have big problems…that means the benefits will be reaped by a narrow few, while the losses are likely to be borne by the many.

This aside, though, I don’t think it will make a lot of difference. Subprime foreclosures are a driver, but not the main one-you still have issues in prime, job losses from impending recession, and big affordability issues…this is a political stunt-it may have some positive impact on a small segment of borrowers, but it won’t slow the depreciation appreciably:)

Stan

[stansd]

I’m not yet convinced that investors will swallow this pill…if I’m an owner of one of the securitized pools, I’m doing the math of how much more interest I get from keeping people in their homes who would have otherwise defaulted versus how much I lose by giving breaks to people who might have made it anyway…there’s no effective way to segment with such big incentives for the borrowers to game the system.

I can see the people in the riskiest tranches being a little more eager to go along because they are first on the hook for losses, but people further up the credit quality spectrum are going to have big problems…that means the benefits will be reaped by a narrow few, while the losses are likely to be borne by the many.

This aside, though, I don’t think it will make a lot of difference. Subprime foreclosures are a driver, but not the main one-you still have issues in prime, job losses from impending recession, and big affordability issues…this is a political stunt-it may have some positive impact on a small segment of borrowers, but it won’t slow the depreciation appreciably:)

Stan

[stansd]

I’m not yet convinced that investors will swallow this pill…if I’m an owner of one of the securitized pools, I’m doing the math of how much more interest I get from keeping people in their homes who would have otherwise defaulted versus how much I lose by giving breaks to people who might have made it anyway…there’s no effective way to segment with such big incentives for the borrowers to game the system.

I can see the people in the riskiest tranches being a little more eager to go along because they are first on the hook for losses, but people further up the credit quality spectrum are going to have big problems…that means the benefits will be reaped by a narrow few, while the losses are likely to be borne by the many.

This aside, though, I don’t think it will make a lot of difference. Subprime foreclosures are a driver, but not the main one-you still have issues in prime, job losses from impending recession, and big affordability issues…this is a political stunt-it may have some positive impact on a small segment of borrowers, but it won’t slow the depreciation appreciably:)

Stan

[stansd]

I part company with Schiff on the value of the dollar. I’m a believer in PPP over the long term. The dollar certainly could continue to slide against the Euro short term, but long term it’s reasonably valued even now. We may have further to go versus the yen, the yuan and other currencies fighting the losing battle of a peg.

So, I think WW wages will equilibrate through american stagnation and through a rising tide throughout the developing world.

Stan

[stansd]

I part company with Schiff on the value of the dollar. I’m a believer in PPP over the long term. The dollar certainly could continue to slide against the Euro short term, but long term it’s reasonably valued even now. We may have further to go versus the yen, the yuan and other currencies fighting the losing battle of a peg.

So, I think WW wages will equilibrate through american stagnation and through a rising tide throughout the developing world.

Stan

[stansd]

I part company with Schiff on the value of the dollar. I’m a believer in PPP over the long term. The dollar certainly could continue to slide against the Euro short term, but long term it’s reasonably valued even now. We may have further to go versus the yen, the yuan and other currencies fighting the losing battle of a peg.

So, I think WW wages will equilibrate through american stagnation and through a rising tide throughout the developing world.

Stan

[stansd]

I part company with Schiff on the value of the dollar. I’m a believer in PPP over the long term. The dollar certainly could continue to slide against the Euro short term, but long term it’s reasonably valued even now. We may have further to go versus the yen, the yuan and other currencies fighting the losing battle of a peg.

So, I think WW wages will equilibrate through american stagnation and through a rising tide throughout the developing world.

Stan

[stansd]

I part company with Schiff on the value of the dollar. I’m a believer in PPP over the long term. The dollar certainly could continue to slide against the Euro short term, but long term it’s reasonably valued even now. We may have further to go versus the yen, the yuan and other currencies fighting the losing battle of a peg.

So, I think WW wages will equilibrate through american stagnation and through a rising tide throughout the developing world.

Stan

[stansd]

I think he’s right on. He’s not bemoaning consumption, but consumption beyond your productivity (which will ultimately drive your salary) and the fundamental value of your assets.

I won’t paint the full story here, but I work at a Fortune 500 Tech Company in finance. I’m seeing a huge mind shift toward outsourcing, even for finance jobs that require a significant amount of judgment and expertise. They can hire in Mexico or India for half the salary and 3/4 the productivity.

This has been going on in IT for some time, but it is rapidly working it’s way up the food chain. I’m 31, and I expect my inflation adjusted income to roughly tread water over the next 10 years while I get promoted and take on additional responsibilities that would have doubled my inflation adjusted income if I’d started 20 years ago.

I’m better positioned than most, but the average American has absolutely no concept of how their lifestyle is going to change.

Stan

[stansd]

I think he’s right on. He’s not bemoaning consumption, but consumption beyond your productivity (which will ultimately drive your salary) and the fundamental value of your assets.

I won’t paint the full story here, but I work at a Fortune 500 Tech Company in finance. I’m seeing a huge mind shift toward outsourcing, even for finance jobs that require a significant amount of judgment and expertise. They can hire in Mexico or India for half the salary and 3/4 the productivity.

This has been going on in IT for some time, but it is rapidly working it’s way up the food chain. I’m 31, and I expect my inflation adjusted income to roughly tread water over the next 10 years while I get promoted and take on additional responsibilities that would have doubled my inflation adjusted income if I’d started 20 years ago.

I’m better positioned than most, but the average American has absolutely no concept of how their lifestyle is going to change.

Stan

[stansd]

I think he’s right on. He’s not bemoaning consumption, but consumption beyond your productivity (which will ultimately drive your salary) and the fundamental value of your assets.

I won’t paint the full story here, but I work at a Fortune 500 Tech Company in finance. I’m seeing a huge mind shift toward outsourcing, even for finance jobs that require a significant amount of judgment and expertise. They can hire in Mexico or India for half the salary and 3/4 the productivity.

This has been going on in IT for some time, but it is rapidly working it’s way up the food chain. I’m 31, and I expect my inflation adjusted income to roughly tread water over the next 10 years while I get promoted and take on additional responsibilities that would have doubled my inflation adjusted income if I’d started 20 years ago.

I’m better positioned than most, but the average American has absolutely no concept of how their lifestyle is going to change.

Stan

[stansd]

I think he’s right on. He’s not bemoaning consumption, but consumption beyond your productivity (which will ultimately drive your salary) and the fundamental value of your assets.

I won’t paint the full story here, but I work at a Fortune 500 Tech Company in finance. I’m seeing a huge mind shift toward outsourcing, even for finance jobs that require a significant amount of judgment and expertise. They can hire in Mexico or India for half the salary and 3/4 the productivity.

This has been going on in IT for some time, but it is rapidly working it’s way up the food chain. I’m 31, and I expect my inflation adjusted income to roughly tread water over the next 10 years while I get promoted and take on additional responsibilities that would have doubled my inflation adjusted income if I’d started 20 years ago.

I’m better positioned than most, but the average American has absolutely no concept of how their lifestyle is going to change.

Stan

[stansd]

I think he’s right on. He’s not bemoaning consumption, but consumption beyond your productivity (which will ultimately drive your salary) and the fundamental value of your assets.

I won’t paint the full story here, but I work at a Fortune 500 Tech Company in finance. I’m seeing a huge mind shift toward outsourcing, even for finance jobs that require a significant amount of judgment and expertise. They can hire in Mexico or India for half the salary and 3/4 the productivity.

This has been going on in IT for some time, but it is rapidly working it’s way up the food chain. I’m 31, and I expect my inflation adjusted income to roughly tread water over the next 10 years while I get promoted and take on additional responsibilities that would have doubled my inflation adjusted income if I’d started 20 years ago.

I’m better positioned than most, but the average American has absolutely no concept of how their lifestyle is going to change.

Stan

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