[stansd]

Josh,

Don’t take that 40% as an absolute indicator, only a relative one. There is double counting in the way the # of short sales are being captured (frankly, there is some potential for this to even overstate even the relative changes).

I won’t bore you with the details (I think it’s earlier in the thread somewhere), but my take thus far is that it’s not truly 40% that are short, but that the % short is increasing.

Stan

[stansd]

Josh,

Don’t take that 40% as an absolute indicator, only a relative one. There is double counting in the way the # of short sales are being captured (frankly, there is some potential for this to even overstate even the relative changes).

I won’t bore you with the details (I think it’s earlier in the thread somewhere), but my take thus far is that it’s not truly 40% that are short, but that the % short is increasing.

Stan

[stansd]

Josh,

Don’t take that 40% as an absolute indicator, only a relative one. There is double counting in the way the # of short sales are being captured (frankly, there is some potential for this to even overstate even the relative changes).

I won’t bore you with the details (I think it’s earlier in the thread somewhere), but my take thus far is that it’s not truly 40% that are short, but that the % short is increasing.

Stan

[stansd]

Josh,

Don’t take that 40% as an absolute indicator, only a relative one. There is double counting in the way the # of short sales are being captured (frankly, there is some potential for this to even overstate even the relative changes).

I won’t bore you with the details (I think it’s earlier in the thread somewhere), but my take thus far is that it’s not truly 40% that are short, but that the % short is increasing.

Stan

[stansd]

Josh,

Don’t take that 40% as an absolute indicator, only a relative one. There is double counting in the way the # of short sales are being captured (frankly, there is some potential for this to even overstate even the relative changes).

I won’t bore you with the details (I think it’s earlier in the thread somewhere), but my take thus far is that it’s not truly 40% that are short, but that the % short is increasing.

Stan

[stansd]

Great post, SDR…very insightful-I wouldn’t have guessed there would be those kinds of downs floating around PQ. That said, I believe much of these downs are still being funded from bubble money-sell high, buy high. Lop another 10% off the SD market, and a number of those downs evaporate and a number more shrink sizably.

I think much of what moves the market still comes down to the entry level home buyer who supports the rest of the pyramid. I have a lot of friends in that demographic-the DINK’s who are both engineers have no problem coming up with the down. There are a good number of these around. There are also a lot of more average folks making 70K-90K/HH, and none of these can fund it. That’s the demographic that’s got to be able to buy in before we hit an equilibrium…currently, many of these are leaving the state, and many others are quietly suffering and will leave in the future.

Stan

Stan

[stansd]

Great post, SDR…very insightful-I wouldn’t have guessed there would be those kinds of downs floating around PQ. That said, I believe much of these downs are still being funded from bubble money-sell high, buy high. Lop another 10% off the SD market, and a number of those downs evaporate and a number more shrink sizably.

I think much of what moves the market still comes down to the entry level home buyer who supports the rest of the pyramid. I have a lot of friends in that demographic-the DINK’s who are both engineers have no problem coming up with the down. There are a good number of these around. There are also a lot of more average folks making 70K-90K/HH, and none of these can fund it. That’s the demographic that’s got to be able to buy in before we hit an equilibrium…currently, many of these are leaving the state, and many others are quietly suffering and will leave in the future.

Stan

Stan

[stansd]

Great post, SDR…very insightful-I wouldn’t have guessed there would be those kinds of downs floating around PQ. That said, I believe much of these downs are still being funded from bubble money-sell high, buy high. Lop another 10% off the SD market, and a number of those downs evaporate and a number more shrink sizably.

I think much of what moves the market still comes down to the entry level home buyer who supports the rest of the pyramid. I have a lot of friends in that demographic-the DINK’s who are both engineers have no problem coming up with the down. There are a good number of these around. There are also a lot of more average folks making 70K-90K/HH, and none of these can fund it. That’s the demographic that’s got to be able to buy in before we hit an equilibrium…currently, many of these are leaving the state, and many others are quietly suffering and will leave in the future.

Stan

Stan

[stansd]

Great post, SDR…very insightful-I wouldn’t have guessed there would be those kinds of downs floating around PQ. That said, I believe much of these downs are still being funded from bubble money-sell high, buy high. Lop another 10% off the SD market, and a number of those downs evaporate and a number more shrink sizably.

I think much of what moves the market still comes down to the entry level home buyer who supports the rest of the pyramid. I have a lot of friends in that demographic-the DINK’s who are both engineers have no problem coming up with the down. There are a good number of these around. There are also a lot of more average folks making 70K-90K/HH, and none of these can fund it. That’s the demographic that’s got to be able to buy in before we hit an equilibrium…currently, many of these are leaving the state, and many others are quietly suffering and will leave in the future.

Stan

Stan

[stansd]

Great post, SDR…very insightful-I wouldn’t have guessed there would be those kinds of downs floating around PQ. That said, I believe much of these downs are still being funded from bubble money-sell high, buy high. Lop another 10% off the SD market, and a number of those downs evaporate and a number more shrink sizably.

I think much of what moves the market still comes down to the entry level home buyer who supports the rest of the pyramid. I have a lot of friends in that demographic-the DINK’s who are both engineers have no problem coming up with the down. There are a good number of these around. There are also a lot of more average folks making 70K-90K/HH, and none of these can fund it. That’s the demographic that’s got to be able to buy in before we hit an equilibrium…currently, many of these are leaving the state, and many others are quietly suffering and will leave in the future.

Stan

Stan

[stansd]

Even NPR was quoting NAR spin this morning…How serious journalists continue to quote their nonsense is beyond me. It’s lasy reporting at best.

Stan

[stansd]

Even NPR was quoting NAR spin this morning…How serious journalists continue to quote their nonsense is beyond me. It’s lasy reporting at best.

Stan

[stansd]

Even NPR was quoting NAR spin this morning…How serious journalists continue to quote their nonsense is beyond me. It’s lasy reporting at best.

Stan

[stansd]

Even NPR was quoting NAR spin this morning…How serious journalists continue to quote their nonsense is beyond me. It’s lasy reporting at best.

Stan

[stansd]

Even NPR was quoting NAR spin this morning…How serious journalists continue to quote their nonsense is beyond me. It’s lasy reporting at best.

Stan

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