[sdworker]

I actually looked at this property this week as a rental. The listing agent showed it to me and they purchased a larger home in Carmel Valley somewhere. So they went to the “hang on and rent” option. It was in very nice condition, was upgraded to some degree and had a very decent sized back yard for the size of the home.

[sdworker]

I actually looked at this property this week as a rental. The listing agent showed it to me and they purchased a larger home in Carmel Valley somewhere. So they went to the “hang on and rent” option. It was in very nice condition, was upgraded to some degree and had a very decent sized back yard for the size of the home.

[sdworker]

I actually looked at this property this week as a rental. The listing agent showed it to me and they purchased a larger home in Carmel Valley somewhere. So they went to the “hang on and rent” option. It was in very nice condition, was upgraded to some degree and had a very decent sized back yard for the size of the home.

[sdworker]

I actually looked at this property this week as a rental. The listing agent showed it to me and they purchased a larger home in Carmel Valley somewhere. So they went to the “hang on and rent” option. It was in very nice condition, was upgraded to some degree and had a very decent sized back yard for the size of the home.

[sdworker]

I actually looked at this property this week as a rental. The listing agent showed it to me and they purchased a larger home in Carmel Valley somewhere. So they went to the “hang on and rent” option. It was in very nice condition, was upgraded to some degree and had a very decent sized back yard for the size of the home.

[sdworker]

I hear you. It took me a long time to do it and I finally pulled the trigger last month. I moved almost 100% of my 401(k) into a money market option in August. I am close to finalizing what I will do with it. I am lucky in that I have an option to go into a self-directed brokerage account within my 401(k). This means I get to pick almost any mutual fund available in the US. I have found some foreign mutual fund options that have limited exposure the the US Dollar and have moved some into them. Then gold for sure. Energy too. Believe me the fear factor was huge having built it up so much over the last 10 years, but I found myself giddy once I did it. You will feel relief – I promise you. I did. I can even stand seeing things go really well in the stock market for the rest of the year. I just don’t feel very positive for the next couple years at all.

[sdworker]

I agree with the post about the 10 year Treasury yield. Being a sideline watcher of the market where I live (Torrey Highlands area of Rancho Penasquitos) I saw a decline in the value of my property of over $100K in a fairly short period. I would say over a 6 to a 12 month period. That represented almost a 15% drop from peak pricing. My very non-expert/scientific opinion was that three things turned the values down the biggest being 1)the yield on the 10-yr T-Note started going up (and therefore mortgages rates started going up), followed by 2) gas prices increased alot 3) there was a general perception that the market had turned. Those three things combined to drop prices over $100K in a short period of time. Funnily enough in the last couple months what have we been seeing? 1) Yields on the 10-yr T-Note going up alot and ave. mortgage rates going up as a result 2) Gas prices going up. So it will be interesting to see what happens to sales prices that come up in a month or so when we see escrows closing from current sales right now. Just can’t get a pulse on 3) – that is the buyers perceptions at this moment….a few recent sales have been both way lower and then one way higher than previous comps. Very confusing.

Anyway, I do watch the 10-year yield on the T-Note religiously every day and honestly have been getting a sick feeling in my stomach every day lately as I see it tick up and tick up and tick up……

I have quoted this guy before (Chief Investment OFficer for Wells Capital Mgmt). I heard him say once in regards to the American consumer that his feeling was their mentality could be stereotyped as something like “you can mess with gas prices, you can mess with taxes, you can mess with anything (his list went on and on)…but don’t mess with my mortgage payment”. So I believe that once you see the 10-year Treasury note yield going up much more…the tipping point will be hit and the next $100K plus drop will be less than 6 months to fruition. This is just specific to San Diego area of course.

[sdworker]

I agree with the post about the 10 year Treasury yield. Being a sideline watcher of the market where I live (Torrey Highlands area of Rancho Penasquitos) I saw a decline in the value of my property of over $100K in a fairly short period. I would say over a 6 to a 12 month period. That represented almost a 15% drop from peak pricing. My very non-expert/scientific opinion was that three things turned the values down the biggest being 1)the yield on the 10-yr T-Note started going up (and therefore mortgages rates started going up), followed by 2) gas prices increased alot 3) there was a general perception that the market had turned. Those three things combined to drop prices over $100K in a short period of time. Funnily enough in the last couple months what have we been seeing? 1) Yields on the 10-yr T-Note going up alot and ave. mortgage rates going up as a result 2) Gas prices going up. So it will be interesting to see what happens to sales prices that come up in a month or so when we see escrows closing from current sales right now. Just can’t get a pulse on 3) – that is the buyers perceptions at this moment….a few recent sales have been both way lower and then one way higher than previous comps. Very confusing.

Anyway, I do watch the 10-year yield on the T-Note religiously every day and honestly have been getting a sick feeling in my stomach every day lately as I see it tick up and tick up and tick up……

I have quoted this guy before (Chief Investment OFficer for Wells Capital Mgmt). I heard him say once in regards to the American consumer that his feeling was their mentality could be stereotyped as something like “you can mess with gas prices, you can mess with taxes, you can mess with anything (his list went on and on)…but don’t mess with my mortgage payment”. So I believe that once you see the 10-year Treasury note yield going up much more…the tipping point will be hit and the next $100K plus drop will be less than 6 months to fruition. This is just specific to San Diego area of course.

[sdworker]

If you want to talk large scale demographic or other changes that will affect real estate here’s something else to think about. After just watching tonight “The End of Suburbia – Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream” I would say a more potent issue to consider would be rapid decline in cheaply produced global oil production. Assuming half of what all the people in that movie said in 5 – 10 years that will hit the price of alot of real estate… more than something like the Baby Boomers.

Just on another note relative to what you wrote, as my father told me recently when discussing the issue water and more specifically the future lack of access to it..”No human civilization has ever survived long term living in the desert”. So you may want to suggest to your in-laws that moving to the desert might not be a truly peaceful and dream like way to end their final years here.

Sorry. Just a bit depressed after wathcing the DVD about the reality that most of us (including me) really don’t want to face about about our future based on a cheap petroleum lifestyle. For real estate predictors it is a good watch as there are some very interesting prognostications (?sp) about how Americans will live their lives in as soon as 7-10 years (major downsizing of EVERYTHING, reversal of globalization, small communities that have to come together to grow their own food and generate their own energy) and what effect this will all have on real estate.

What a way to spend my Sat nite )-: One thing that did make me smile was the quote “It will be the end of the 3,000 mile Ceaser Salad”…

Sorry. Next post will be more uplifting I hope….

[sdworker]

I got a marketing postcard in the mail this week that highlighted the sale of a Carmel Valley home as follows: “Torrey Del Mar Sale! Sold for $840,000 in 18 days, at $25,000 more than the last sale”. First time I had seen something talking about prices going up in a long, long time. But there is it….one more data point. Perhaps it speaks to a post I think I read from SDRealtor about market conditions being very particular to the individual neighbourhood. I read the Carmel Valley News and there are many, many pages of ags from agents with multiple photos of houses with “In Escrow Jan 15, 2007”, “Sold 2/12/2007” notated on them etc. If the ads in that newspaper were all you based your evulation of the market on you might thing homes are selling like hotcakes. Again, it might be that Carmel Valley can hold its own…to some degree. And don’t get me wrong. I am a major housing bear.

[sdworker]

Thanks for the clarification juice. I get very dazed and confused sometimes. I read both alot of bear and bull analysis and they both seem plausible and the data seems to support many shades of gray…

[sdworker]

I know of two people that bought in a very high end development in Del Sur recently. I know for sure in one case and am pretty sure in the other case that it was inherited/family/insurance money (parent died). Another family I know was looking in that same development and they also have family money / trust fund sources (although they decided not to buy there after all). Other that that I have NO clue how people do it. I ceratinly could not afford to buy my house house right now.

[sdworker]

I have looked at the models at Carriage Run and, personally, I think they have atrocious floor plans. OK, that is a bit harsh. I did not find any of the Carriage Run models that appealing. Don’t know if I represent an average Joe on this sort of thing and whether my opinion of those homes may be why they are not selling. Just one data point.

[sdworker]

I am confused. I just went to a presentation given by the Chief Investment Officer of Wells Capital Management (the asset mgmt division of Wells Fargo Bank). He showed charts and discussed that housing and autos only represent 9% of the total US GDP. And while that 9% of the economy has been in serious decline, the remaining 81% of the economy is going gangbusters! See these charts and his comentary (James Paulsen) in his Nov 2006 newsletter at

https://www.wellscap.com/docs/ecomonic_and_market_perspective/EMP%201106_RFS.pdf

He said the press keeps talking about all the risks to the economy and how there is a sentiment out there of a “wall of worry”, but in the mean time the stock market has been doing well, the economy is doing well, profits continue to do well, incomes continue to do well etc etc.

The other interesting thing he said is that there are about 20 ways to calculate the savings rate of Americans and the one that gets bandied about in the press is, in his opinion, just about the worst way to calculate it…and if you look at other calculations that Americans are not in negative savings territory at all. Anyway that is a sidetrack to the point about the general economy and how much the housing market represents….but as said already…time will tell…

[Author]

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