[santeeman]

This guy is saying he predicted a while ago houses would dive and this is his next prediction….
“What my point? That the next thing that starts to happen is rents rise, and when they do, more buyers move into the purchase market. We've already seen some of this. Also, some sellers have moved out of the market. A few weeks ago, I was seeing active listings total about 23,800 locally, and they're down to 22,500 now. Furthermore, the number of buyers has risen by about ten percent or so in the last couple weeks. Net result: We were at 38 or 40 sellers per buyer most of the summer. Last week it dropped to 34, and this week it's at 33. This is starting to look like it might be a trend, and when the ratio of sellers to buyers drops enough, prices are going to stabilize, the period of best deals will be over, and people are going to rush back into the market. It's got a long way to go, but where I have predicting Spring 2008 as the most likely market recovery point locally, I'm thinking now that it will more likely be some time next year, most likely early summer based upon current trendlines.”

[santeeman]

CA brown bear

Just outta curiosity,where abouts is this home located?Don’t get me wrong, I am not out to argue this point, just curious. It might be the reason they are empty is that they are in a less desirable area, haven’t seen any myself. The areas I frequent are the more desirable parts of town.

[santeeman]

Dang, didn’t know that, thought it was the 65k someone referenced. According to the “Sperlings Best Places to live”, Santee, has absolutely NO houses vacant, yet houses here are cheaper than other areas,I thought that was interesting. I am sure someone will tell me why that list is not accurate though.

FSD

I am not an expert, by any means, but I was thinking the same thing,younger/less money= condo.

[santeeman]

I alone make over that. I don’t know but, I have a feeling that most folks who buy or have bought a home are a two income family. Everyone I know in Santee, a blue collar, middle class area, makes more than that/are a 2 income family. That’s seem’s real unrealistic to me. Folks don’t seem to worried about losing their homes. Factor in that rents in my area alone for a sfh are mostly 1800 plus, at least(Santee is a pretty cheap area) and you have a good profit, for renting out the house you bought for 250k. Doesn’t seem too likely to me. I do feel personally, they’re coming close to that though. More like 300kish, or more.

[santeeman]

I agree too, realestate is tumbling. I don’t even know if ’07 or ’08 would be the time I would invest if I were going too. Maybe 2010, but just as 4k is ridiculous for a sfr mortgage payment so is the 3k it’s gonna cost to rent it, in the next couple of years. If my bets are right.

It’s like gas going to 4 bucks a gallon. It may be down for now but, 4 bucks plus is down the pike. Folks can’t afford that either, it goes up anyway. Oil companies don’t care whether you can or not. There aren’t alternative fuels available quickly, or cheaply enough, etc……..It’s just the way it is.

[santeeman]

I must be missing something here. Are you saying that
if the median price for a home in San Diego is $499,000,and the decline seen is 50%, or down to 250k, folks with a median income of approximately 65k cannot afford to own their home?

[santeeman]

In San Jose they rose 10% last quarter, Orange County was 6.1%. I bet San Diego is next. If the median price for a rental is 2,000, which I believe it is, that could mean a 200 dollar increase for some folks. That has gotta hurt. This guy is gonna move and chances are if he pays less, he’ll get less. The landlord is just gonna rent his place to someone who will pay,occupancy is up . They can and they will. The other landlord’s who can afford to rent their property cheaper are gonna see the higher prices and price their’s up too. Next year, next quarter-I don’t know when but I am betting we’ll see it. It’s happening already, but as ARM’s reset and people either get foreclosed on and join the rental market, or put their house up for rent at astronomical prices, it’s gonna be higher.

[santeeman]

THIS WAS ON THIS WEB SITE A FEW MONTHS AGO< It's huge if you wanna read it all.....but here's one section from "powayseller" Rents are up. User Forum Topic Submitted by lindismith on July 11, 2006 - 10:12am. The rents are up in SD - I know because I've been looking for a new place to live, and they've been rising steadily. Can anyone tell me how this is happening when the population is decreasing? Are owners being forced to raise rents because of higher mortgages? Is the Internet allowing owners to more quickly get a snapshot of higher possible rents, so are they just increasing them? Is it just seasonal? ‹ Builders margin? Free Inflection Point Forecasting Model › add new comment | email this forum | printer friendly version | subscribe post Prices go up when demand Submitted by powayseller on July 11, 2006 - 10:33am. Prices go up when demand exceeds supply. The people leaving are homeowners who are selling. We have 30% vacancy in homes for sale, but what is the vacancy rate in rentals? More and more people want to rent, pushing up the price. The rental stock is shrinking, as apartment conversions were made into condos, and rental stock has not been replenished for a long long time. The CPI which is 40% rents, is going up because rents are rising. As housing becomes unaffordable from rising interest rates, people choose renting over buying. This will exacerbate when lending standards tighten next year. A few months ago, I was tossing around the idea of locking in a 2 year lease, and I couldn't figure out whether rents would go up or down. I had a list of arguments on both sides. I ended up signing the 2 year lease. Sounds like it was a lucky decision. I am wondering if you can quantify your search. How much is the increase? Apartments or houses? reply | email this comment You can ignore or decide to think it is unreal, but the position is there.....

[santeeman]

hm

[santeeman]

Pure evil……

[santeeman]

I contend that you actually did not understand the statistics in the article. However,it doesn’t matter, only time will tell for sure. Markets all across the country are making the same statements. I don’t care, I don’t rent, and ignorance is bliss.

[santeeman]

Houses are comming down. That doesn’t change the fact that folks aren’t going to be able to afford their rents if they escalate in an attempt to get their landlord’s mortgage paid. You don’t think, just as folks see higher prices for home sales, folks renting houses won’t see the higher asking prices for rent and think their house is worth that too. Anyway, why do I bother, people hate the devils advocate. Just stating a different point of view. Don’t be so sure, but then again ignorance is bliss.

[santeeman]

Did you see the latest on msn, they are predicting an 8% drop for 2007. I don’t like predictions because someone always turns out to be a liar,(the ones I listen to unfortunately)but there is no denying sales yoy are down.

[santeeman]

I have got some land for sale, coastal property, Arizona…..one of my many predictions….lol

[santeeman]

Lighten up…..

[Author]

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