[permabear]

[quote=Bubblesitter]Deadlocked, partisan congress will not tackle any near term or long term structural reform.

I’m trying to provide some protection of my hard earned assets in event of this increasingly likely “black swan” event.[/quote]

Are you still in cash and gold? I think that’s about as good as you can get. I think bonds will continue to get killed, especially with the missing Build America Bonds in the current tax “compromise”. I could also see stocks continuing to advance another 10%, but that entails risk.

Gridlock doesn’t concern me, despite the media. The previous housing credits, for example, were passed near unanimously. Just ask, “will this help banks” and if the answer is “yes”, then it will pass.

I too think there’s about a 10% chance of a debt crisis and spike in interest rates. But I think it would be temporary.

[permabear]

[quote=Bubblesitter]Deadlocked, partisan congress will not tackle any near term or long term structural reform.

I’m trying to provide some protection of my hard earned assets in event of this increasingly likely “black swan” event.[/quote]

Are you still in cash and gold? I think that’s about as good as you can get. I think bonds will continue to get killed, especially with the missing Build America Bonds in the current tax “compromise”. I could also see stocks continuing to advance another 10%, but that entails risk.

Gridlock doesn’t concern me, despite the media. The previous housing credits, for example, were passed near unanimously. Just ask, “will this help banks” and if the answer is “yes”, then it will pass.

I too think there’s about a 10% chance of a debt crisis and spike in interest rates. But I think it would be temporary.

[permabear]

[quote=Bubblesitter]Deadlocked, partisan congress will not tackle any near term or long term structural reform.

I’m trying to provide some protection of my hard earned assets in event of this increasingly likely “black swan” event.[/quote]

Are you still in cash and gold? I think that’s about as good as you can get. I think bonds will continue to get killed, especially with the missing Build America Bonds in the current tax “compromise”. I could also see stocks continuing to advance another 10%, but that entails risk.

Gridlock doesn’t concern me, despite the media. The previous housing credits, for example, were passed near unanimously. Just ask, “will this help banks” and if the answer is “yes”, then it will pass.

I too think there’s about a 10% chance of a debt crisis and spike in interest rates. But I think it would be temporary.

[permabear]

Scarlett,

I don’t think UC is worth the premium attached to it. UC’s API scores are the same or lower than the other areas you mentioned. Plus, IMO, it doesn’t have the same “neighborhood” feel the other areas do. It feels in-between areas.

I know several on this board love the UC area, but if you’re looking for bang-for-buck, I think you are right in veering towards PQ, SR, CMR, and west MM. I have coworkers in each of those areas and all are very happy.

[permabear]

Scarlett,

I don’t think UC is worth the premium attached to it. UC’s API scores are the same or lower than the other areas you mentioned. Plus, IMO, it doesn’t have the same “neighborhood” feel the other areas do. It feels in-between areas.

I know several on this board love the UC area, but if you’re looking for bang-for-buck, I think you are right in veering towards PQ, SR, CMR, and west MM. I have coworkers in each of those areas and all are very happy.

[permabear]

Scarlett,

I don’t think UC is worth the premium attached to it. UC’s API scores are the same or lower than the other areas you mentioned. Plus, IMO, it doesn’t have the same “neighborhood” feel the other areas do. It feels in-between areas.

I know several on this board love the UC area, but if you’re looking for bang-for-buck, I think you are right in veering towards PQ, SR, CMR, and west MM. I have coworkers in each of those areas and all are very happy.

[permabear]

Scarlett,

I don’t think UC is worth the premium attached to it. UC’s API scores are the same or lower than the other areas you mentioned. Plus, IMO, it doesn’t have the same “neighborhood” feel the other areas do. It feels in-between areas.

I know several on this board love the UC area, but if you’re looking for bang-for-buck, I think you are right in veering towards PQ, SR, CMR, and west MM. I have coworkers in each of those areas and all are very happy.

[permabear]

Scarlett,

I don’t think UC is worth the premium attached to it. UC’s API scores are the same or lower than the other areas you mentioned. Plus, IMO, it doesn’t have the same “neighborhood” feel the other areas do. It feels in-between areas.

I know several on this board love the UC area, but if you’re looking for bang-for-buck, I think you are right in veering towards PQ, SR, CMR, and west MM. I have coworkers in each of those areas and all are very happy.

[permabear]

Agree with brian. The degree and quickness of change matters as well.

Say you’re considering a mortgage balance of 700k. 1% increase is $583/month. Not chump change, but if it happens slowly over 1-2 years, raises and inflation will offset much of it.

Now say there’s a panic in the dollar due to sovereign debt concerns, and like Greece/Ireland, interest rates shoot up to 12% overnight. Then you’re probably f’ed if you’re trying to buy/sell at that specific moment. But if that happened, I would suggest sellers would delist, not wanting to take a sudden 200k hit.

I personally think a panic in the dollar is possible but still low likelihood (less than 10%). It would destabilize most of the world, and everyone knows it. If it does happen, the US will certainly ramp up the presses overnight and print to high heaven to offset it, which would decrease the impact of debt balances.

I think it is more likely that we will increase our pandering to/protection of foreign governments in the near term, in exchange for implicitly buying faith in the USD.

[permabear]

Agree with brian. The degree and quickness of change matters as well.

Say you’re considering a mortgage balance of 700k. 1% increase is $583/month. Not chump change, but if it happens slowly over 1-2 years, raises and inflation will offset much of it.

Now say there’s a panic in the dollar due to sovereign debt concerns, and like Greece/Ireland, interest rates shoot up to 12% overnight. Then you’re probably f’ed if you’re trying to buy/sell at that specific moment. But if that happened, I would suggest sellers would delist, not wanting to take a sudden 200k hit.

I personally think a panic in the dollar is possible but still low likelihood (less than 10%). It would destabilize most of the world, and everyone knows it. If it does happen, the US will certainly ramp up the presses overnight and print to high heaven to offset it, which would decrease the impact of debt balances.

I think it is more likely that we will increase our pandering to/protection of foreign governments in the near term, in exchange for implicitly buying faith in the USD.

[permabear]

Agree with brian. The degree and quickness of change matters as well.

Say you’re considering a mortgage balance of 700k. 1% increase is $583/month. Not chump change, but if it happens slowly over 1-2 years, raises and inflation will offset much of it.

Now say there’s a panic in the dollar due to sovereign debt concerns, and like Greece/Ireland, interest rates shoot up to 12% overnight. Then you’re probably f’ed if you’re trying to buy/sell at that specific moment. But if that happened, I would suggest sellers would delist, not wanting to take a sudden 200k hit.

I personally think a panic in the dollar is possible but still low likelihood (less than 10%). It would destabilize most of the world, and everyone knows it. If it does happen, the US will certainly ramp up the presses overnight and print to high heaven to offset it, which would decrease the impact of debt balances.

I think it is more likely that we will increase our pandering to/protection of foreign governments in the near term, in exchange for implicitly buying faith in the USD.

[permabear]

Agree with brian. The degree and quickness of change matters as well.

Say you’re considering a mortgage balance of 700k. 1% increase is $583/month. Not chump change, but if it happens slowly over 1-2 years, raises and inflation will offset much of it.

Now say there’s a panic in the dollar due to sovereign debt concerns, and like Greece/Ireland, interest rates shoot up to 12% overnight. Then you’re probably f’ed if you’re trying to buy/sell at that specific moment. But if that happened, I would suggest sellers would delist, not wanting to take a sudden 200k hit.

I personally think a panic in the dollar is possible but still low likelihood (less than 10%). It would destabilize most of the world, and everyone knows it. If it does happen, the US will certainly ramp up the presses overnight and print to high heaven to offset it, which would decrease the impact of debt balances.

I think it is more likely that we will increase our pandering to/protection of foreign governments in the near term, in exchange for implicitly buying faith in the USD.

[permabear]

Agree with brian. The degree and quickness of change matters as well.

Say you’re considering a mortgage balance of 700k. 1% increase is $583/month. Not chump change, but if it happens slowly over 1-2 years, raises and inflation will offset much of it.

Now say there’s a panic in the dollar due to sovereign debt concerns, and like Greece/Ireland, interest rates shoot up to 12% overnight. Then you’re probably f’ed if you’re trying to buy/sell at that specific moment. But if that happened, I would suggest sellers would delist, not wanting to take a sudden 200k hit.

I personally think a panic in the dollar is possible but still low likelihood (less than 10%). It would destabilize most of the world, and everyone knows it. If it does happen, the US will certainly ramp up the presses overnight and print to high heaven to offset it, which would decrease the impact of debt balances.

I think it is more likely that we will increase our pandering to/protection of foreign governments in the near term, in exchange for implicitly buying faith in the USD.

[permabear]

Sweet!

“San Diego numbers are just too pretty” – do you mean we’re faring better than most?

[permabear]

Sweet!

“San Diego numbers are just too pretty” – do you mean we’re faring better than most?

[Author]

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