[Nonbeliever]

I loved the New Yorker link. That is pretty much my daily life as well! Hilarious.

[Nonbeliever]

KnowNothing-

I think this is what you are looking for.

http://www.patrick.net/housing/crash.html

[Nonbeliever]

It takes a long time for a tanker to turn, as will the real estate market. I too am encouraged by the haste we have seen in the downturn, but I think it is just the tip of the iceberg. As for the dow, let’s not forget that inflation adjusted, the dow is FAR from its all time high, and that the dow 30 stocks have been changed twice since 2000. Here is a good article by Eric Jansen from iTulip on the recent dow action.

Not a bubble, but not healthy growth either

[Nonbeliever]

That link didn’t work. I guess Rich doesn’t like Safari very much.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/22/real_estate/help_home_for_sale_young_ballanco/index.htm?postversion=2006092211

[Nonbeliever]

5.008 vs 5.009 is hardly going to “Break the Bank”, but if we see a more substantial curve inversion for a longer period of time it will put a lot of pressure on the lenders as they borrow short for a higher percentage than they lend long. The curve inverted earlier this year if I remember correctly, but it too was not very substantial. If bonds make a move from here it could be the harbinger since good old Ben seems to be ready to raise again.

[Nonbeliever]

Rich-
That last line of mine was a joke, just to clarify. There is nothing that I would expect you to do. Just accentuating the point that PS posts at least 4 out of 5 topics here. Keep up the good work.

[Nonbeliever]

Cough, spit, gasp. Poway, NOOOO. You have forced a long time reader into registering and posting how much I disapprove of your desire to abandon this forum. You have always posted some of the most insightful and accurate information. Don’t let one naysayer ruin anything for you. You should feel justified in taking the long time stance that you have. You ought to feel the due respect you deserve after what has transpired. What, is someone going to say, “What does the UCLA Anderson Forcast know about the real estate market?” Just because there are those that don’t want to believe the laws of inevitability does mean that you don’t have some staunch supporters out there. Don’t use this to give up. You are such a large part of this forum. Rich, do something about this.

[Author]

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