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lindismith
ParticipantChina wants to do buiness with us, not hurt us. Where do people get these crazy ideas????
ParticipantCan you elaborate on the amount of increase in your inputs, and how much of that you can pass along to your customers? Are your competitors passing along these costs?
I’ll give you a small example to illustrate: one of the items we produce are shower curtains. Our grommet supplier on the E. coast had cost increases in freight and brass. Grommets went from 3.5c each to 5c each (so almost double). We order these by the hundred thousand. This was a massive increase for us to absorb. My buyers (I supply huge janitorial companies who then sell these items to gyms, universities, prisons etc.) would balk at another $1.00 on their product costs, so instead of re-ordering from my regular supplier I sourced them offshore, and paid $2.5c for them. This is business, no?
I don’t see how my competitors wouldn’t be passing these costs along. If they are not, then they won’t stay in business long. I expect a few of them to go out of business in the next year to 18 months, because in general manufacturers are slow to adapt, and they don’t use technology to help their businesses. Their demise usually increases my sales as their buyers are forced to find another supplier (probably me), but often they just end up going directly to China if they can, as that helps their margins by cutting out someone like me.
As for freight, I routinely get 30% surcharges from UPS or my big carriers. About 18 months ago, we made a costing decision to just work off 40-60% margins instead of 30-50 because we had to account for freight increases. It was killing us.
I have to say, my business has not suffered yet. People are still buying, and when they object to prices, I can reasonable tell them about oil costs affecting everything, and of course they know what they’re paying at the pump, so they get it, but my phones are not ringing like they were, and I’m still trying to figure out if it’s because people are on summer vacation, or there is a general slowdown happening. My web hits are the same as they were which leads me to believe it’s the summer doldrums, but I’m not certain. Manufacturing, like construction, generally feels it first.
I’m not so sure if China is a victim here as well. Yes, i’m not sure either, but I do know my costs of products I produce in China have been affected. (Victim is not really the right word in my opinion. Every market is affected by oil costs, except maybe oil-producing countries, but even they have to buy finished goods, and the costs of those are UP.)
ParticipantHigh-priced oil has been affecting my business for the last 2 years! I’m in manufacturing, and the cost of bringing in goods has gotten very expensive. In some cases, the frieght and the value of the raw materials are equal costs.
Of course, when we produce the finished goods, the freight is often as high or higher than the goods, so all my customers are paying more too.As for the raw goods, they are costing more also because those vendors have been affected.
All the way up the line, we are all affected by it.
I’m not necessarily sure higher oil costs are a bad thing because it means we are paying more realistic prices and it certainly makes us conserve more. (Both in business, and as consumers.) Plus, if I’m paying more, so are my Chinese producers/competitors, so both of raising our prices is ok, as long as we’re both raising them.
Ultimately, consumers will be paying more for their goods (if they aren’t already.)
As for the other effects of the conflict, I think it creates a huge amount of fear in our culture, and in general a buying environment turns into a stalled environment. Everyone goes into “let’s wait and see what happens” mode.
ParticipantI hope they don’t develop Ramona. What’s nice is the hiking out that way – how you can see for miles and miles and it’s all open.
People in LA live in Riverside and commute 2 hours each way. When land is scarce, they will just build further out.
A 2-hour drive is really not sustainable for any human being. It causes undue stress and hardship on families, never mind the pollution and congestion. We really need a strategic plan for development that includes luring businesses to developing areas.ParticipantCarlsbadliving,
Thanks for those answers.Another question: can you tell me why we only build on the top of canyon areas now? We always seem to just bulldoze the top, and then squeeze in as many units as possible on the flattened area, instead of building up and down the sides of canyons? Is this to save money on putting in more roads? Or, what? Do you know what I’m talking about?
ParticipantAgreed.
It’s not only where will they live, but to address the initial question: where will they work???
How they will get to work, is hopefully via a comprehensive, environmentally-friendly mass transit system. I’d love to see a streamlined bullet train running down the center of I-5! There has been some talk of that, but don’t know what the latest is. Most likely it is just wider lanes on existing freeways though….
I tried to research the quantity of tech firms in SD last night, but could find no succinct data last night. I sent some emails out to friends, but so far no one has responded.
ParticipantWhat I mean is that if you can only build x number of housing units due to space limitations, then business will only locate y number of businesses in that region.
Great questions!
I’d like to know if this is actually a true statement? I’m interested to know how a city or county decides to add businesses areas? Do we have any Urban Planners on here?
My own thinking is that if the cities were actually properly planning around growth, they would have allocated more business areas in North County because of the impact on traffic congestion. But, that hasn’t been the case…. Can someone enlighten me?
ParticipantAll our Realtor members are most likely working today – maybe they will answer tonight?
The only thing I can think of is maybe you are inadvertantly adding something with the paste. Try typing the number in directly (not pasting) and see if that helps.
Welcome to the bubble forums! You are already more enlightened, I’m sure!
ParticipantWell, I have a great imagination, and this RE keeps me up at nights!
In late 80s and earyl 90s when I was working at Nordstrom, all these women were spending thousands of dollars with me every month. I knew their size, their taste etc. If an article of clothing arrived that I knew they’d like, I’d simply charge their card, and send it out to them!
Then, about a year before the first Gulf War, things really just came to a complete stop, and literally, we would not see a customer from 6pm to 9pm some nights! All of my customers stopped shopping the way they did, and were forced to cut back. One even broke down one day saying her husband was a contractor, and things were never going to be the same again. But then, the war started, and the economy got the little bit of jolt it needed, and life resumed albeit at a slower pace.
I think we’re in for some tough times ahead, but I go back and forth between thinking it’s going to get horrific vs. just plain bad.
After college I got into selling yellow page ad space, and saw daily how small and medium businesses were marketing themselves and surviving the downturn. The ones who pulled through were the ones who were able to adjust and find new ways to both make money and cut expenses.
Adjustment seems to be the key.
Even this morning I read in the NY Times that all the mortgage brokers are excited by the prospect of refinancing all these scary home loans and earning more money…
Participantyes, agreed.
Denial is very powerfull.
Plus, it’s not about to happen – it is happening; I’m convinced they have just been lucky up to this point. And it remains to be seen if they can actually earn the $70K.Please keep us updated. 🙂
ParticipantVery interesting indeed.
Just so I’m clear: in 6 months they made 30K?
Is that their only way they earn income?
And, now they think they can make another 20K?
And their mortgage is covered here…
I don’t know, but it doesn’t sound like it’s great money to me. Doesn’t seem like the cost of living would be significantly lower there. If that profit is above and beyond their regular works’ incomes, then it’s a nice investment windfall, but if that’s how they earn a living, it’s really not enough.
What am I missing?
ParticipantIt looks quite nice with those hardwood floors, but Park Blvd is noisy! Not as bad as Ambulance Artery on 4th and 5th, but still, lots of busses with brake systems that make that hissing sound when they stop. Hopefully this condo sits well past a bus stop!
I checked Zillow, and this is the sales history for the place:
08/16/2004: $416,000
12/30/2003: $319,000
01/20/1995: $103,500They are currently asking $425,000. It is a FSBO.
Ouch.
ParticipantPS – Just wondering whatever happened to this friend of yours?
I remember reading this last year, and at the time being too afraid to answer, “OMG, I think she’s totally $***ed!”
Funnily enough, no one else ever answered either….
I remember I was a little nervous to say that I thought she was making a huge mistake, and two, while I was convinced she was making a mistake, so many people were still so high on real estate as an investment that couldn’t lose, it seemed somehow sacrilegious to even say anything in opposition.
Of course now I am a converted Piggington, and I’ve read so much good analysis on this forum, that I can’t believe I ever questioned myself.
Anyway, do you have an update for us? It’s been 7 months now since this post.
ParticipantI asked this same question on another forum, and got this answer:
“If a listing on Zip Realty says “inactive”, the listing is either in escrow, sold, withdrawn, or cancelled. If the listing is either cancelled or withdrawn, it is often re-listed within a few days.”I have seen several houses listed multiple times, and each time I save them in My Zip folder, they duplicate. To me, it’s pretty clear the seller is trying to manipulate the Days On Market figures.
Zip appears to update daily in terms of MLS content. I’ve noticed most new listings appear in the MLS on Monday nights. Probably realtors are working hard on the weekends, and then the database updates within 24 hours or so. I can’t imagine it taking longer simply because in good times houses sell so fast that they’d want the database to update almost instantaneously.
Regarding the 40 inactives – that is a huge number. Maybe some of the realtors on this board can provide us more insight?
I have to give a huge shout-out to Zip – they’ve done a fantastic job with their website, which is tough because they have to please both buyers and sellers! Now if only my assigned agent would stop emailing me….
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