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Murray-

Feel free to go with “history on” your “side”. It won’t change the fact that we are headed back to pre-2001 prices all across this great land.

45 year interest rate lows, combined with pent-up demand from the underclass to “own” their own apartments (I mean condos, I guess) led to the greatest Ponzi scheme of all-time here in the U.S. Without the “apartment renter” class moving up and providing vast sums to the lucky few, there never would have been this ridiculous bubble.

Some people here in SD are like me…renting nice homes, making good money, sending their kids to good public schools, and watching incredulously as people commit financial suicide time and again buying more than they can afford. (Probably buying more than they AND five families’ income combined can afford)

History is my guide as well….Irving Fisher, esteemed Yale economist of the late “twenties” noted that stocks looked to him to have achieved a “permanently high plateau” right before the greatest stock market wipeout in history and the Great Depression began. Too many real estate experts are calling for a soft landing and high plateau scenario for this to turn out any different.

San Diego is nice and always has been…do your self and family a favor and don’t be caught dead buying anything there though until we hit pre-2001 prices.

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Here’s one from a neighborhood I’ve been watching for a little over a year now in Rancho Bernardo (SD County)…MLS#066034540.

Per Zip:
Price Reductions:
5/22/06 $760,000 to $724,900
6/20/06 $724,900 to $699,000
7/10/06 $699,000 to $684,000

From ZipRealty:
“Description:
Check out this price! Huge reductions! Motivated seller! Two homes just like this sold for $775,000 and $800,000 earlier this year! Pride of… more”

This is a pretty nice house, too. Listings in the entire meighborhood appear to be chasing the market down, too, with price reductions. More coming on the market soon, too. Sooooo glad I didn’t buy in here last year. What would make a prospective buyer pull the trigger NOW, when all he sees around him is prices being reduced every couple of weeks/months?

Patience, grasshoppa.

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I hope you are prepared to “wait it out” for a very long time. We have just witnessed a “generational” peak in real estate prices here in Southern California, one which won’t be surpassed for ten years at least, if not twenty years.

That’s a long time to wait for another bedroom 😉

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Thanks for the insight. Why are they looking now when they know that time is on their side? It seems anyone “willing” to buy after such a dramatic run-up as we have seen over the past several years, should not really care about getting a “fair” price. Just buy it, man, and keep the party going on forever, right?

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I like hrdlndg…

got to be kinda subtle…don’t want to have the car being keyed every couple of weeks (days, hours?)

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From Merriam Webster’s dictionary, the first listed definition of “dream” is:

” a series of thoughts, images, or emotions occurring during sleep ”

NOW I understand…. the entire f’ing population is ASLEEP.

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From Spinal Tap…

“Two words, actually….SHIT sandwich”

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Let’s keep this one going….before I go out to see any house, I want to know how far (if at all) the owner is on taxes.

Look up your street name…I found some very interesting stuff out with this site.

Thanks PS.

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Looks like the new Del Sur development (in Carmel Valley) is having a big grand opening splash next weekend. If anyone goes to check it out, I would really appreciate hearing feedback about the attendance, the buzz (or lack thereof), and any other general thoughts or comments about things.

I am hopefully optimistic that the development will fall flat on it’s face due to poor timing of the launch and the rising interest rate environment and changing homebuyer sentiment.

“Death to the zero lot”

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deadzone,

I agree with everything you said. I also think, however, that we are likely to continue to see repeated financial bubbles of this magnitude every few years from now on. After all, wasn’t it just five years ago that NASDAQ peaked and then burst?! Here we are five years later and FL, MA, and AZ housing markets are certain to burst! SD, SF, OC, Excremento, LA are soon to follow…

I have faith in the INABILITY of the masses to AVOID getting sucked up in the backwash of bubbles, getting pitched, then thrown “over the falls” headfirst into the sand EVERY few years. Many break their “neck” yet continue to paddle back out into the shorebreak “tsunami” time and again.

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Let’s say one sold their house (cost basis 150K) for 500K and pocketed 300K but then later “had” to buy that same house back for a MILLION dollars. The taxes question seems pretty insignificant when you consider that 300K would cover the roughly $8500 a year differential in taxes for a VERY long time (35 years or so, not including growth on that money).

I’d be interested in learning of an asset bubble in the U.S. that corrected without nominal prices dropping. Perhaps there have been many? I don’t know. Can anyone enlighten us?

Finally, Powayseller…kudos to you. I sold my second house in 2003 (early, some would say, but due to a job change and move, it was the only real option) and the 1800% return I experienced on my down payment (in just 2 years)proved very helpful in getting me to where I am today. Good things can and do come from ignoring the MSM and those with a vested interest in seeing you make financial mistakes, er buying your “starter home” for 800K.

Powayseller simply has the anti-cry of the real estate machine’s “buy now or be priced out forever” hoax. I would hope that those questioning powayseller’s motives would look equally hard at the real estate brokers and loan officers who made the opposite plea.

P.S. If by “forever” the real estate machine meant “until 2007” please accept my apologies. I completely mis-understood what you were trying to say 😉

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No. Sorry.

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Wow! I am shocked by your story. While I have no answers for you, please know that I hope everything works out fine for you. Was the property management company really that inept? Are they based out of Mira Mesa by chance?

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Replying to North County Jim-

No, Jim. I am not a writer. I am sure I have heard others use a similar caution, and simply throw it out there in the sincerest manner for peoples’ protection.

What is “RM” by the way?

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I have said some stupid things myself in forums, probably due to my own frustrations with the confusion of having both smart and dumb money in the market.

Last thing I need is an enemy, so please accept my sincerest apologies if I have ever offended anyone.

I do believe that I shall have no more need to post in these forums for quite a long time.

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