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Hey, I have a great idea!

I’m a high-tech worker in SD with an *awesome* resume. And I mean *awesome*, 10+ years experience, worked at Bell Labs, AT&T Research and Scripps Oceanography. Top of my game.

I love telecommuting too, I get to do it one day a week at my current gig.

Assuming one of the perma-bulls can get me a 200K+ year job (what I figure I would need to buy a starter home in SD county) telecommuting, I’ll sign a contract to buy property here within the next 12 months. Heck, I’ll even pay ya 1% of my take-home pay on top of that.

Any takers?

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There should be a word for this, something like “Rumsfelding”.

“This” being trying to polish the turd of ones legacy of disastrous decisions, after one is no longer in the position to do anything about them.

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“If a climate scientist follows scientific protocol, calls out the assumptions in their predictive models (better yet, call out the possibility that their models may not correspond with real behavior), and do proper peer reviews including people who aren’t excluded based on their AGW views, then I will consider the work to be unbiased.”

Ok, let me get this correct.

You are an admitted climate science amateur, to the point that you are not capable of discerning the difference between pseudoscientific astrology/numerology and real science.

Yet, you are somehow also able to accurately judge current climate models, the peer review process and bias of the primary investigators?

Have you considered the possibility, at all, that perhaps you are mistaken?

Assuming you are, will you now expect Exxon/Mobil to cover the trillions of dollars of damage caused by fossil-fuel induced climate change?

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I think #5 should read “foreclosure”

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How about this…

“The Piggington Effect”

A stable population of informed, non-REI-related renters with good credit, jobs and money in the bank.

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I’m no psychologist, but I think this phenomenon is called the ‘death rattle’.

Is that even psychology?

I see the same thing on some of the science-related boards (and here!) from the climate-change deniers. The more the evidence is piled on, the more desperate the denial becomes. The bleating can be almost be deafening at times!

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If you don’t care that there is a high risk the property isn’t going to appreciate for some time and its affordable for you, why not.

There are plenty of reasons to own a house besides as an investment.

However, given that every indicator is that we’ve just passed the peak of a very large housing bubble, I really think the best advice is to sit tight for a year and see what happens.

Consider this, take the money you save from renting and a down payment and stick it in a savings account. A year from now you will be able to buy better property for less money, plus you’ll have the interest accrued in the interim.

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Hey, I’m one of those highly-paid tech workers! Except I’m not highly-paid enough to afford a home in SD. Most other highly-paid folks (above the median) can’t afford one either.

Everyone should be thankful for us though, as we are gonna be the ones that eventually stop the housing crash.

Assuming there are enough of us left around, that is.

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If you consider climate science produced by climate scientists, following scientific protocols, as hopelessly biased, then your state of confusion is going to be forever permanent on this topic.

Looking to petroleum industry insiders and astrologers for the answer is only going to make it worse, btw.

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Yes, we are definitely in uncharted waters. Who knows what the future will hold.

My only ‘prediction’ that I’m reasonably comfortable with is that 2007 will be the year the bubble ‘pops’ and public perceptions shifts. How many years it takes for all this to unwind is anybodies guess.

If history is any gauge, then there will likely be big losses in a short time frame (typical crash), followed by a slowing downward trend as the more rational folks return to the market. There are alot of renters on the sidelines with money in the bank, remember!

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A few notes:

Take a walk downtown sometime after dark and look at all the dark condo towers. I doubt those all belong to wealthy out-of-state vacationers.

Yeah, “Its condos!” and “Its downtown!”, but they will pull the market down regardless.

Regarding your tele-commuting high tech worker, those gigs go to folks in India, not San Diego. Cost of living is a wee bit cheaper over there.

I’ll concur that anyone thats over-extended themselves to get into a primary residence should be considered a speculator.

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“How about we stick with are current system. If you can’t make your payments you default. If the bank made injudicious loans that fail, they take losses.”

Hey, I have no problem with that. The bubble-blowers on both sides need to get severely dinged, in my opinion.

I’m just suggesting that the lending industry might find some creative ways to keep folks from defaulting. I would assume some payment is better than none!

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I would *love* to buy gold, but unfortunately I’m tied up in a debt consolidation for at least the next two years. After that its going right into investments. I assume its still considered best practices to be debt-free before investing?

I’m not too upset about this as I feel the next year or so is going to be fairly volatile in the markets and I would rather get in at the bottom, rather than during a period of high churn.

Looking forward, wouldn’t a general precious-metals index fund be something to consider? Is there even such a thing?

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Here’s something that worries me.

Would it be possible that to avert mass-foreclosures, the banks implement some sort of ‘reverse re-fi’ in order to keep folks in their homes (and make them debt slaves?)

For example, say Joe FB ARM resets and he just can’t make the payments (for whatever reason). So instead of foreclosing, the bank basically short-sells the property to him with a different loan product that he can afford, say an interest-only one.

Joe FB ends up basically renting from the bank (and can’t sell) for the forseeable future.

I can see something like this mitigating a full-on crash and potentially creating a soft-landing type scenario.

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“I’m done discussing this topic. Thanks especially to ucodegen and DrChaos for a great discussion!”

Thank you for your contributions! Good to know the denialist position is as intellectually-bankrupt as its always been.

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