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kewp
ParticipantNot everyone is underwater. Consider what I call the ‘lottery winners’, people that have just received a large inheritance, vested a bunch of options, or even indeed, won the lottery. How is buying an overpriced home any different than buying any other overpriced asset in these cases? Sure, its a lousy investment, but maybe they are buying it just to live in!
There will always be enough folks out there, even if credit dries up entirely, to buy homes. *Thats* the fundamental that will drive the deflation of the housing bubble and return the market to equilibrium.
Once all the desperate/forced sellers realize they will have to drop their prices, in some cases drastically, in order to attract what few buyers there are out there, will prices come down.
March 28, 2007 at 3:39 PM in reply to: millionaires moving in keeping prices flat in high-end markets? #48643ParticipantI’m with Cow_Tipping… I suspect folks with more than a million in cash are few and far between.
Maybe ‘millionaires’ means a million+ in debt?
ParticipantThey will have my sympathy when I get my ‘kewp has to live in a sh!tty apartment because of all the idiot FB’s’ article.
ParticipantThe ‘tipping point’ is when the sheeple realize everything we’ve known for years; that real estate is over-valued, its due for a ‘major’ correction and it has a long way to drop before it hits bottom.
Mass public-perception is everything and this ball is just starting to roll. It was only a week or so ago that the housing collapse was front-page news on CNN. It’s all downhill from here.
To Mark S.,
I’m not sure what your point is? That a few million people that have been living beyond their means, probably for at least the last decade, are going to have to pay the piper?
What about the rest of us, the responsible fold, that *already* lead meager lives, because we are fiscally responsible? No fancy house, new car or HDTV for kewp!
Where is my pity party?
March 28, 2007 at 8:34 AM in reply to: millionaires moving in keeping prices flat in high-end markets? #48613Participant“Everyone has the same viewpoint and there is no exchange of ideas.”
I’ll prove you wrong by disagreeing with that! 😉
In my opinion, the fundamental difference between bulls and bears is that bulls are focused on making money, while bears are more interested in not losing it.
Ergo, bears perpetually harp about fundamentals, whilst bulls see nothing but sunshine and rainbows.
Yes, this is bear board. Yes, the real world is a bull market except when we are in a recession. This is not news to anyone.
And comparing us to FauxNews is insulting.
ParticipantIf you are new to the area, you really should rent something close to where you work and make it a point to check out other areas of the county.
Take your time and figure out exactly where and what you want; I think by the end of 2007 you will be glad you did.
ParticipantI agree that there simply isn’t enough money to bail out California at this point.
The *best* thing that can happen is a quick, fast crash that gets prices somewhere near reasonable in SoCal and folks start buying and moving in. This will take the edge of any major local recession.
Unfortunately, I have feeling we are going to see stagnation and slow deflation over at least the next five to ten years, which is going to hang heavy on the San Diego economy.
Participant“The galling thing about this is that there are a lot of policy makers who should have known how big a risk they were taking by reducing the interest rates so much and injecting so much liquidity into the market (M3).”
I hear that.
While there is *much* blame to go around, I generally feel the focus should be directed upwards. Its guys like Greenspan that really should (need actually) to know better. Heck, its was his friggen job to know better!
Whats sad is every single FB is gonna get smacked much harder in the end than Greenspan, whom is really has not much to lose from the mess he made. Unless he has a bunch of investment properties bought with ARM’s!
ParticipantYes, indeed, thank you Rick. I have you to thank for providing the data and analysis to make me feel better about renting.
ParticipantWell, the Fed is an institution, it is neither competent or incompetent. Whoever is in charge of it, on the other hand…
I sometimes wonder if Greenspan is actually an AlQueda agent, the credit-bomb he built is going to make 9/11 look like small potatoes when it goes off.
ParticipantHey, I’m completely opposed to illegal immigration. It’s like line-cutting to me, a f*ck you to all the good folk waiting their turn and doing it through proper channels. I’m all for denying illegals basic services and sending them back from whence they came.
That said, the reason there is such an influx of illegals here is that there are lots of Americans willing to give them them money to do stuff. Every flipper I’ve ever known would remodel their houses with day workers they picked up from in front of Frazee paints. Same thing with construction managers and contractors.
If you want to make a dent in illegal immigration, you need to punish the rich white folk that are profiting off of them. Otherwise they will just keep on coming.
Participant“We have a massive influx of poor, uneducated immigrants combined with huge demographic changes the likes of which this city and country haven’t seen in generations.”
Our country was built by poor, uneducated immigrants. European at the time, probably some in your family tree. I know they are in mine!
In SoCal, they fill a valuable role by taking the jobs all the over-educated white folk won’t do. Unless you really, really want to pick strawberries I can’t see what complaint you have with them.
Regardless, enjoy your new life wherever you decide to settle. I’ll suggest New Hampshire, you will be pretty safe from the Mexican Invasion there for at least a few decades!
ParticipantI have to admit there is a somewhat racist tone to this thead that I find disturbing.
I hope everyone realizes that while RE may be through the roof here in SD (and that will soon change I’m sure), other stuff is really pretty cheap. We can thank immigrant labor for that.
That said, sorry to see you go and I’m glad you are doing what you want. I myself went through a similar phase, but decided to live the life I want to in SD, with no apologies and as a happy renter.
I have a great career, walk to work, set my own hours, make enough to pay my bills and have some fun on the weekends, great friends and generally can do as I please.
Just a vote of confidence for those that are choosing to stay!
ParticipantGood example why it doesn’t pay to make these sorts of prognostications.
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