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just came into a large chunk of cash and would like to get it working for me, not just sitting on the sidelines. Should I buy a couple of spec houses in Carmel Valley?

Have you read “Crash Proof” by Peter Schiff yet? I just finished it and he paints a pretty compelling case for a severe collapse of the dollar.

You might want to check it and his brokerage, “Euro Pacific Capital” out. Specifically the Merck Fund, http://www.europac.net/investment_merk_hard_currency.asp and the Rodgers Fund http://www.europac.net/investment_rogers.asp

If I had some cash sitting around I would definitely park a good chunk of it in the above two funds as a hedge against inflation. A nice perk of the Rodgers fund, whenever you see rising prices at the pump, you know that is money in the bank for you!

A word of warning, I did pick up a pretty anti-goverment tone from the book and Mr. Schiff’s father is currently in jail as a tax protester, so there is some bias there that colors his analysis.

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You know, I wonder why the hell the media keeps interviewing people that are essentially paid cheerleaders for the REI machine and portraying them as analysts.

I mean, they have disclaimers when they are doing a story that involves their parent company. Why not do the same for the RE shills?

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You know, I wonder why the hell the media keeps interviewing people that are essentially paid cheerleaders for the REI machine and portraying them as analysts.

I mean, they have disclaimers when they are doing a story that involves their parent company. Why not do the same for the RE shills?

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Given that foreclosures are skyrocketing and ARMs will be resetting well into 2009, I doubt we are poised for a recovery anytime soon. Not to mention the rampant overbuilding and mortgage fraud in outlying areas (like Temecula).

Combine that with a local economy that is over-dependent on RE and its associated industries. I simply don’t see where the huge influx of buyers are going to come from, especially given the tightening lending standards. Even for the few high-paying jobs that are here, most folks are not going to be willing to relocate due to the high cost of living.

There are two things that I think may create an early bottom.

1. Cash-rich renters that sold during the peak and are waiting to buy back in. I call this the “Piggington Effect”. They are flush with equity and can afford to buy an overpriced asset if it means getting into the kind of house they want.

2. Wealthy people in other states that dig SD and want to buy a vacation home here. They will have no shortage of condos at bargain prices over the next year, for example. As you can see from Rich’s employment charts, leisure is big business in this city.

Beyond that, its gonna be a slow decline until the regular folks with stable income and good credit (like me) can even afford a starter home and start buying.

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Given that foreclosures are skyrocketing and ARMs will be resetting well into 2009, I doubt we are poised for a recovery anytime soon. Not to mention the rampant overbuilding and mortgage fraud in outlying areas (like Temecula).

Combine that with a local economy that is over-dependent on RE and its associated industries. I simply don’t see where the huge influx of buyers are going to come from, especially given the tightening lending standards. Even for the few high-paying jobs that are here, most folks are not going to be willing to relocate due to the high cost of living.

There are two things that I think may create an early bottom.

1. Cash-rich renters that sold during the peak and are waiting to buy back in. I call this the “Piggington Effect”. They are flush with equity and can afford to buy an overpriced asset if it means getting into the kind of house they want.

2. Wealthy people in other states that dig SD and want to buy a vacation home here. They will have no shortage of condos at bargain prices over the next year, for example. As you can see from Rich’s employment charts, leisure is big business in this city.

Beyond that, its gonna be a slow decline until the regular folks with stable income and good credit (like me) can even afford a starter home and start buying.

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“I wonder when the foreigners will stop financing our debt?”

It’s happening right now!

http://www.europac.net/externalframeset.asp?from=home&id=8888

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“I wonder when the foreigners will stop financing our debt?”

It’s happening right now!

http://www.europac.net/externalframeset.asp?from=home&id=8888

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Well, hopefully the *lenders*, being the supposed professionals, will learn and remember their lessons and not lend people with no jobs $500k in order to by overpriced, bubbly assets.

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Well, hopefully the *lenders*, being the supposed professionals, will learn and remember their lessons and not lend people with no jobs $500k in order to by overpriced, bubbly assets.

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Hehe, I’m laughing myself about the hedgies whining.

At this point, screm’ em all. Rich and poor. I’ve been sitting on the sidelines for three years; I think I’m gonna enjoy eating roast pig soon.

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Hehe, I’m laughing myself about the hedgies whining.

At this point, screm’ em all. Rich and poor. I’ve been sitting on the sidelines for three years; I think I’m gonna enjoy eating roast pig soon.

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Uh, what about the tidal wave of ARM resets over the next two years?

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Uh, what about the tidal wave of ARM resets over the next two years?

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I would really, really like to see some aerial photos of Temecula over the past (and into the next) year. Would be neat to make an animation of it.

Would look like a brown alien was eating SoCal!

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I would really, really like to see some aerial photos of Temecula over the past (and into the next) year. Would be neat to make an animation of it.

Would look like a brown alien was eating SoCal!

[Author]

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