[jpinpb]

HLS – I have to agree that affordability is a factor. But that is also why none of this makes sense to me. The median priced home in San Diego, they say now, is $440k. I think it may be off. Whatever. The median income is something like $50k. To be fair, we’ll say the average household is a couple, so that bumps it up, one earning more, so we should say about $85k? But if we say it’s a married couple, chances are they have a kid – maybe two – added expense.

Is the median income net or gross?

Most people don’t have 5% to slap down on a house, plus the 6% realtor commission, plus closing costs, if any. We’re looking at $22k + 26 = $48k+.
Almost 50k needed to get a place.

If a house is $440k and say they were lucky to get a loan today w/zero down @ 5.5%, the payment is 2,498, adding to that prop. tax of 366, plus insurance, I’m not sure, $100 – hoping there is no HOA, we’re at $2,964. Let’s say 3k easy math.

When we add to that utilities (gas, electric, phone – cable if they’re splurging) then add food and clothing, gasoline. Shall we add car payments. Very few people know or want to drive a car into the ground. I’ve done this in my life many times, but most people don’t. Most people want a new car. The lowest car payment I’ve seen for a new car is about $150 a month. Shall we times 2 for the couple.
We’ve got to be at around $2,500 by now, thereabouts, being very conservative.

What if they have a student loan or credit card payments?

This leaves very little room at the end of the month for much else.

So how the hell are these people doing it?

Consumer spending amounts to 2/3 of our economy.

How or what incentive is there to save when interest rate keeps going down.

This whole economy is not making sense. If you do the right thing, and save and don’t go in over your head, you’re screwed and never get ahead. Catch-22.

So frustrated. Thanks for your wise words.

[jpinpb]

HLS – I have to agree that affordability is a factor. But that is also why none of this makes sense to me. The median priced home in San Diego, they say now, is $440k. I think it may be off. Whatever. The median income is something like $50k. To be fair, we’ll say the average household is a couple, so that bumps it up, one earning more, so we should say about $85k? But if we say it’s a married couple, chances are they have a kid – maybe two – added expense.

Is the median income net or gross?

Most people don’t have 5% to slap down on a house, plus the 6% realtor commission, plus closing costs, if any. We’re looking at $22k + 26 = $48k+.
Almost 50k needed to get a place.

If a house is $440k and say they were lucky to get a loan today w/zero down @ 5.5%, the payment is 2,498, adding to that prop. tax of 366, plus insurance, I’m not sure, $100 – hoping there is no HOA, we’re at $2,964. Let’s say 3k easy math.

When we add to that utilities (gas, electric, phone – cable if they’re splurging) then add food and clothing, gasoline. Shall we add car payments. Very few people know or want to drive a car into the ground. I’ve done this in my life many times, but most people don’t. Most people want a new car. The lowest car payment I’ve seen for a new car is about $150 a month. Shall we times 2 for the couple.
We’ve got to be at around $2,500 by now, thereabouts, being very conservative.

What if they have a student loan or credit card payments?

This leaves very little room at the end of the month for much else.

So how the hell are these people doing it?

Consumer spending amounts to 2/3 of our economy.

How or what incentive is there to save when interest rate keeps going down.

This whole economy is not making sense. If you do the right thing, and save and don’t go in over your head, you’re screwed and never get ahead. Catch-22.

So frustrated. Thanks for your wise words.

[jpinpb]

HLS – I have to agree that affordability is a factor. But that is also why none of this makes sense to me. The median priced home in San Diego, they say now, is $440k. I think it may be off. Whatever. The median income is something like $50k. To be fair, we’ll say the average household is a couple, so that bumps it up, one earning more, so we should say about $85k? But if we say it’s a married couple, chances are they have a kid – maybe two – added expense.

Is the median income net or gross?

Most people don’t have 5% to slap down on a house, plus the 6% realtor commission, plus closing costs, if any. We’re looking at $22k + 26 = $48k+.
Almost 50k needed to get a place.

If a house is $440k and say they were lucky to get a loan today w/zero down @ 5.5%, the payment is 2,498, adding to that prop. tax of 366, plus insurance, I’m not sure, $100 – hoping there is no HOA, we’re at $2,964. Let’s say 3k easy math.

When we add to that utilities (gas, electric, phone – cable if they’re splurging) then add food and clothing, gasoline. Shall we add car payments. Very few people know or want to drive a car into the ground. I’ve done this in my life many times, but most people don’t. Most people want a new car. The lowest car payment I’ve seen for a new car is about $150 a month. Shall we times 2 for the couple.
We’ve got to be at around $2,500 by now, thereabouts, being very conservative.

What if they have a student loan or credit card payments?

This leaves very little room at the end of the month for much else.

So how the hell are these people doing it?

Consumer spending amounts to 2/3 of our economy.

How or what incentive is there to save when interest rate keeps going down.

This whole economy is not making sense. If you do the right thing, and save and don’t go in over your head, you’re screwed and never get ahead. Catch-22.

So frustrated. Thanks for your wise words.

[jpinpb]

I’ve actually seen some places go back on the market w/a price increase. This is incomprehensible to me. It’s defying all logic. I’m so confused.

[jpinpb]

I’ve actually seen some places go back on the market w/a price increase. This is incomprehensible to me. It’s defying all logic. I’m so confused.

[jpinpb]

I’ve actually seen some places go back on the market w/a price increase. This is incomprehensible to me. It’s defying all logic. I’m so confused.

[jpinpb]

I’ve actually seen some places go back on the market w/a price increase. This is incomprehensible to me. It’s defying all logic. I’m so confused.

[jpinpb]

I’ve actually seen some places go back on the market w/a price increase. This is incomprehensible to me. It’s defying all logic. I’m so confused.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the biggest impact on this real estate cycle is employment, at least in So. Cal.

We had Bill Clinton pass the no capital gains tax on $250k for individuals and $500k for couples and rates were decreased. That was the shot in the arm.

Then we had the tech boom and dotcom jobs. When that bubble burst, we had job losses. Manufacturing, outsourcing, tech, telephone sales, etc. etc. We already compete w/those who will work for less from neighboring countries.

Then what really pushed the real estate boom was the free money, I agree. It was the domino effect from that b/c it created jobs overnight: realtors, brokers, loan officers, appraisers and the endless list of construction jobs. All these jobs paid pretty well and that trinkled back into the economy in the retail sector, Home Depot, Lowes, into restaurants. People homes went up in value. The increase was equivalent and correlated to how low the interest rate was, the teaser rate, to be exact.

This false equity was taken out by people and cars were purchased and credit cards were paid off (and run back up again) and trips were taken and trillions were pumped back into the economy.

I understand all this. With the slowing of real estate, the factor that will really hurt the most is the job losses. Service and tourism related jobs don’t pay that well. Good paying jobs require retraining/schooling – time.

The stock market bubble burst quickly. You can sell stocks immediately. Even though some were reluctant and held on until the company went under. Real estate takes time to sell, dragging this out further.

Yet economists are predicting by the end of 2008 the market will stablize. I don’t know what to think anymore or who to believe. My head is spinning.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the biggest impact on this real estate cycle is employment, at least in So. Cal.

We had Bill Clinton pass the no capital gains tax on $250k for individuals and $500k for couples and rates were decreased. That was the shot in the arm.

Then we had the tech boom and dotcom jobs. When that bubble burst, we had job losses. Manufacturing, outsourcing, tech, telephone sales, etc. etc. We already compete w/those who will work for less from neighboring countries.

Then what really pushed the real estate boom was the free money, I agree. It was the domino effect from that b/c it created jobs overnight: realtors, brokers, loan officers, appraisers and the endless list of construction jobs. All these jobs paid pretty well and that trinkled back into the economy in the retail sector, Home Depot, Lowes, into restaurants. People homes went up in value. The increase was equivalent and correlated to how low the interest rate was, the teaser rate, to be exact.

This false equity was taken out by people and cars were purchased and credit cards were paid off (and run back up again) and trips were taken and trillions were pumped back into the economy.

I understand all this. With the slowing of real estate, the factor that will really hurt the most is the job losses. Service and tourism related jobs don’t pay that well. Good paying jobs require retraining/schooling – time.

The stock market bubble burst quickly. You can sell stocks immediately. Even though some were reluctant and held on until the company went under. Real estate takes time to sell, dragging this out further.

Yet economists are predicting by the end of 2008 the market will stablize. I don’t know what to think anymore or who to believe. My head is spinning.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the biggest impact on this real estate cycle is employment, at least in So. Cal.

We had Bill Clinton pass the no capital gains tax on $250k for individuals and $500k for couples and rates were decreased. That was the shot in the arm.

Then we had the tech boom and dotcom jobs. When that bubble burst, we had job losses. Manufacturing, outsourcing, tech, telephone sales, etc. etc. We already compete w/those who will work for less from neighboring countries.

Then what really pushed the real estate boom was the free money, I agree. It was the domino effect from that b/c it created jobs overnight: realtors, brokers, loan officers, appraisers and the endless list of construction jobs. All these jobs paid pretty well and that trinkled back into the economy in the retail sector, Home Depot, Lowes, into restaurants. People homes went up in value. The increase was equivalent and correlated to how low the interest rate was, the teaser rate, to be exact.

This false equity was taken out by people and cars were purchased and credit cards were paid off (and run back up again) and trips were taken and trillions were pumped back into the economy.

I understand all this. With the slowing of real estate, the factor that will really hurt the most is the job losses. Service and tourism related jobs don’t pay that well. Good paying jobs require retraining/schooling – time.

The stock market bubble burst quickly. You can sell stocks immediately. Even though some were reluctant and held on until the company went under. Real estate takes time to sell, dragging this out further.

Yet economists are predicting by the end of 2008 the market will stablize. I don’t know what to think anymore or who to believe. My head is spinning.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the biggest impact on this real estate cycle is employment, at least in So. Cal.

We had Bill Clinton pass the no capital gains tax on $250k for individuals and $500k for couples and rates were decreased. That was the shot in the arm.

Then we had the tech boom and dotcom jobs. When that bubble burst, we had job losses. Manufacturing, outsourcing, tech, telephone sales, etc. etc. We already compete w/those who will work for less from neighboring countries.

Then what really pushed the real estate boom was the free money, I agree. It was the domino effect from that b/c it created jobs overnight: realtors, brokers, loan officers, appraisers and the endless list of construction jobs. All these jobs paid pretty well and that trinkled back into the economy in the retail sector, Home Depot, Lowes, into restaurants. People homes went up in value. The increase was equivalent and correlated to how low the interest rate was, the teaser rate, to be exact.

This false equity was taken out by people and cars were purchased and credit cards were paid off (and run back up again) and trips were taken and trillions were pumped back into the economy.

I understand all this. With the slowing of real estate, the factor that will really hurt the most is the job losses. Service and tourism related jobs don’t pay that well. Good paying jobs require retraining/schooling – time.

The stock market bubble burst quickly. You can sell stocks immediately. Even though some were reluctant and held on until the company went under. Real estate takes time to sell, dragging this out further.

Yet economists are predicting by the end of 2008 the market will stablize. I don’t know what to think anymore or who to believe. My head is spinning.

[jpinpb]

I would think that the biggest impact on this real estate cycle is employment, at least in So. Cal.

We had Bill Clinton pass the no capital gains tax on $250k for individuals and $500k for couples and rates were decreased. That was the shot in the arm.

Then we had the tech boom and dotcom jobs. When that bubble burst, we had job losses. Manufacturing, outsourcing, tech, telephone sales, etc. etc. We already compete w/those who will work for less from neighboring countries.

Then what really pushed the real estate boom was the free money, I agree. It was the domino effect from that b/c it created jobs overnight: realtors, brokers, loan officers, appraisers and the endless list of construction jobs. All these jobs paid pretty well and that trinkled back into the economy in the retail sector, Home Depot, Lowes, into restaurants. People homes went up in value. The increase was equivalent and correlated to how low the interest rate was, the teaser rate, to be exact.

This false equity was taken out by people and cars were purchased and credit cards were paid off (and run back up again) and trips were taken and trillions were pumped back into the economy.

I understand all this. With the slowing of real estate, the factor that will really hurt the most is the job losses. Service and tourism related jobs don’t pay that well. Good paying jobs require retraining/schooling – time.

The stock market bubble burst quickly. You can sell stocks immediately. Even though some were reluctant and held on until the company went under. Real estate takes time to sell, dragging this out further.

Yet economists are predicting by the end of 2008 the market will stablize. I don’t know what to think anymore or who to believe. My head is spinning.

[jpinpb]

The real estate cycle is difficult for me to understand. HLS says the psychology of people has a hand in this. If that’s the case, then the lowering of interest rates and raising of jumbo loans and tax rebates should instill confidence in buyers and w/in the next few months, people may go shopping again, would stand to reason.

HLS says, “Anybody who buys a house today is helping to clean up that mess and saving somebody else the trouble.”

Then what’s to stop that from continuing? The next group saves people and on and on.

I’m ok w/prices coming down b/c I would like to buy a house again. I didn’t want to do it w/trick loans, although now I’m kicking myself for not gambling, since it was free money and the gov. is willing to intervene to save people and banks.

It’s frustrating. I’m trying to do the right thing and not go in over my head and think of the future and the rules are being changed and no one is really playing fair.

Why wouldn’t we have another cycle? What are the reasons that wouldn’t happen. I don’t think we are entitled. I work hard to achieve goals.

Why is it ridiculous to think rich businessmen or foreigners are buying places in San Diego? Irvine company has done that w/apartments and our dollar is so weak compared to the Euro, foreigners can very easily buy places here.

Just scared b/c I don’t want a McMansion. I just want a little place I can call my own and it seems to be so out of reach no matter our hard I try.

If the interest rate is lowered and jumbo loan limit increased and government backing Fannie and Freddie Mac, then why say loose lending is no more. Sounds incredible that they would be so foolish to give money away again, but it almost seems like that’s where they’re heading.

I understand cost of living is going up. I already thought that would impact the economy when in the last several years the price per barrel of oil shot from 50 to $100. And yet, the price of homes continued to rise.

[jpinpb]

The real estate cycle is difficult for me to understand. HLS says the psychology of people has a hand in this. If that’s the case, then the lowering of interest rates and raising of jumbo loans and tax rebates should instill confidence in buyers and w/in the next few months, people may go shopping again, would stand to reason.

HLS says, “Anybody who buys a house today is helping to clean up that mess and saving somebody else the trouble.”

Then what’s to stop that from continuing? The next group saves people and on and on.

I’m ok w/prices coming down b/c I would like to buy a house again. I didn’t want to do it w/trick loans, although now I’m kicking myself for not gambling, since it was free money and the gov. is willing to intervene to save people and banks.

It’s frustrating. I’m trying to do the right thing and not go in over my head and think of the future and the rules are being changed and no one is really playing fair.

Why wouldn’t we have another cycle? What are the reasons that wouldn’t happen. I don’t think we are entitled. I work hard to achieve goals.

Why is it ridiculous to think rich businessmen or foreigners are buying places in San Diego? Irvine company has done that w/apartments and our dollar is so weak compared to the Euro, foreigners can very easily buy places here.

Just scared b/c I don’t want a McMansion. I just want a little place I can call my own and it seems to be so out of reach no matter our hard I try.

If the interest rate is lowered and jumbo loan limit increased and government backing Fannie and Freddie Mac, then why say loose lending is no more. Sounds incredible that they would be so foolish to give money away again, but it almost seems like that’s where they’re heading.

I understand cost of living is going up. I already thought that would impact the economy when in the last several years the price per barrel of oil shot from 50 to $100. And yet, the price of homes continued to rise.

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