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I’m in the slow steady camp barring an economic jolt to the area. The prices are just too sticky on the way down for a quick reduction price. However, since there is not much evidence that prices will appreciate over the next 2-4 years, the window of opportunity for some other economic shock to slam housing prices is going to be open for some time. Given all the troubling factors out there, I think the chances are greater than 50-50 that we hit a trouble patch in the economy and the effect is amplified more than need be because people are so over extended. I hope this does not happen, but I think it is a real possibility. Until then we will see slow depreciation. In the meantime, it is summer and the south swells are starting to roll in, so all is good regardless of what this crazy market does.

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I’m in the slow steady camp barring an economic jolt to the area. The prices are just too sticky on the way down for a quick reduction price. However, since there is not much evidence that prices will appreciate over the next 2-4 years, the window of opportunity for some other economic shock to slam housing prices is going to be open for some time. Given all the troubling factors out there, I think the chances are greater than 50-50 that we hit a trouble patch in the economy and the effect is amplified more than need be because people are so over extended. I hope this does not happen, but I think it is a real possibility. Until then we will see slow depreciation. In the meantime, it is summer and the south swells are starting to roll in, so all is good regardless of what this crazy market does.

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Based on my research I have concluded that home prices are dropping. I have also concluded they will continue to drop. This will last for some time until eventually supply and demand are in line at which point they will stabilize. This will either be a slow drop in real price or a quick drop in nominal price. It may also be a combination of the two. Further research shows that interest rates will play a huge role in this price drop. My analysis shows that there is an inverse relationship between interest rate and prices. Other factors such as location and condition of the property also have some bearing on the price level of the home. As the price cycle on real estate tends to have a period around a decade, I will update these observations daily to make sure we can track the direction of prices, rate of decline/incline and correctly identify the peaks and troughs. To learn more about my acute observations and the data that drives them, please sign up for premium content when you visit my new website-deadhorsebeating.com

[JJsqueeze]

Based on my research I have concluded that home prices are dropping. I have also concluded they will continue to drop. This will last for some time until eventually supply and demand are in line at which point they will stabilize. This will either be a slow drop in real price or a quick drop in nominal price. It may also be a combination of the two. Further research shows that interest rates will play a huge role in this price drop. My analysis shows that there is an inverse relationship between interest rate and prices. Other factors such as location and condition of the property also have some bearing on the price level of the home. As the price cycle on real estate tends to have a period around a decade, I will update these observations daily to make sure we can track the direction of prices, rate of decline/incline and correctly identify the peaks and troughs. To learn more about my acute observations and the data that drives them, please sign up for premium content when you visit my new website-deadhorsebeating.com

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I ended up pulling out today. In the end my gut just won out. Yeah we can afford it, yeah I WANT it, but deep down I know that a year from now I would be kicking myself for deviating from a plan I’ve had for 4 years. All along I’ve thought this would be a double dip fall and my plan was to get in midway to bottom of the second dip. Right now I think we are just starting the second dip so I need to stick to my guns. Thanks for the various feedback.

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I ended up pulling out today. In the end my gut just won out. Yeah we can afford it, yeah I WANT it, but deep down I know that a year from now I would be kicking myself for deviating from a plan I’ve had for 4 years. All along I’ve thought this would be a double dip fall and my plan was to get in midway to bottom of the second dip. Right now I think we are just starting the second dip so I need to stick to my guns. Thanks for the various feedback.

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The elementary is Monte Vista, the middle school is Rancho Minerva (used to be Lincoln). You nailed your assessment of the middle schools. When the time comes Rancho Minerva will either have changed significantly or I will using finding another option. You have the area right also, all customs, large lots, can have a horse or a couple of llamas, multiple wives…etc.

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The elementary is Monte Vista, the middle school is Rancho Minerva (used to be Lincoln). You nailed your assessment of the middle schools. When the time comes Rancho Minerva will either have changed significantly or I will using finding another option. You have the area right also, all customs, large lots, can have a horse or a couple of llamas, multiple wives…etc.

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LOL…yeah..it needs new skins and appliances. That kitchen get’s demo’d day one.

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LOL…yeah..it needs new skins and appliances. That kitchen get’s demo’d day one.

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It is heart wrenching to see that a Med. Tech and Nurse cannot afford to buy 8 houses and float a $40K/mo. mortgage. What has America come to?

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It is heart wrenching to see that a Med. Tech and Nurse cannot afford to buy 8 houses and float a $40K/mo. mortgage. What has America come to?

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Add me as a last minute addition. It will be a welcome change from staring blank faced and biting my tongue as I endured encounters with various real estate geniuses at social gatherings the last few years.

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I am a real estate novice, but i am pretty sure this would be considered some sort of loan fraud. I am equally sure that it is a ‘soft’ version that has been part of real estate business practices for the last few years. That said, I think that your lender is unscrupulous and you can now safely tread very carefully because he is clearly comfortable operating in murky moral water, what murky decisions is he making that are putting you at risk?. Will you get into trouble? Not likely. Is it symptomatic of a larger issue that in a falling market you are scrambling to get a 100% loan by cutting corners that make you at least a little uncomfortable? Yes. Add to this the risk of the owner changing his mind and holding on to the note and it just feels like bad business. I am by nature very fiscally conservative, so I probably represent the cautious end of the spectrum , I am curious to see what the other responses are.

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The area I am referring to is east of Altamira and Cantara, across the 78. It is on the egde of where Vista gets rural to the northeast. I thought it was called Alta Vista, but I could be wrong, I know that there is a street called Alta Vista that runs through the area. I am not looking right now, but it looks like prices have fallen a good bit there (I agree this area will get thwacked). My interest is, in all honesty, as a shorter term alternative to waiting for Carlsbad to drop out of the stratosphere and let me in.

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