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HLS
ParticipantWhat NOBODY talks about is who/what is at risk, as far as average Joe & Jane investor.
There are multi millions of people “investing” in the stock market via 401K, IRA’s etc for their retirement, without having a CLUE what they are doing, just blindly buying stocks via mutual funds or whatever. It’s what they are told to do, so they have money taken out of every single paycheck.
It’s akin to people who bought homes at inflated prices, without having a clue what they were doing. The end result (again) is that some people will get lucky, others will get burned badly.
It isn’t a myth that only a small % of mutual funds beat the indexes, yet fund mangers collect mgmt fees based on the amounts of the funds.
The pitch of the investment industry is that over time, the market returns 11% on average. Please try explaining that simple sentence to someone who had a million dollar portfolio in tech stocks prior to the dot.com bust. I know of accounts that went from $1 mil to $50k pretty fast.
They had been investing for years, hoping to retire around 2002. Plans change.
The innocence of so many people that have a fair amount of money in stocks for retirement is staggering. No idea of p/e, p/s, market cap, enterprise value, growth stocks, value stocks, etc. just assuming that it will grow to an expected amount due to compounding growth (Because we all know that it’s TIME in the market, not timing)
Hopefully for all, people will not want to cash out en masse, but what some people don’t realize is it also isn’t possible. There won’t be enough buyers. (Sounds like homes today) When/if sentiment changes, there goes the market.
Most will ask the same questions as they do about houses, “how come I can’t sell”Although the major housing losses will be regional, a real downturn in stocks will be national, affecting every single square inch of the country.
Some of the hedge fund money and similar risky investments came from pension funds and average investors Joe & Jane without them even knowing. The total leveraged losses will be covered up by shenanigan accounting for as long as possible.
I read a about a recent pension fund that EXPECTS 8% return year over year. To me it says we NEED 8% or we’re in trouble.
Some of the perps will hope to die before the coverups come to light.
I hope it doesn’t happen. It’s gonna make people wish that it was only as bad as Enron or Worldcom.
ParticipantWhat NOBODY talks about is who/what is at risk, as far as average Joe & Jane investor.
There are multi millions of people “investing” in the stock market via 401K, IRA’s etc for their retirement, without having a CLUE what they are doing, just blindly buying stocks via mutual funds or whatever. It’s what they are told to do, so they have money taken out of every single paycheck.
It’s akin to people who bought homes at inflated prices, without having a clue what they were doing. The end result (again) is that some people will get lucky, others will get burned badly.
It isn’t a myth that only a small % of mutual funds beat the indexes, yet fund mangers collect mgmt fees based on the amounts of the funds.
The pitch of the investment industry is that over time, the market returns 11% on average. Please try explaining that simple sentence to someone who had a million dollar portfolio in tech stocks prior to the dot.com bust. I know of accounts that went from $1 mil to $50k pretty fast.
They had been investing for years, hoping to retire around 2002. Plans change.
The innocence of so many people that have a fair amount of money in stocks for retirement is staggering. No idea of p/e, p/s, market cap, enterprise value, growth stocks, value stocks, etc. just assuming that it will grow to an expected amount due to compounding growth (Because we all know that it’s TIME in the market, not timing)
Hopefully for all, people will not want to cash out en masse, but what some people don’t realize is it also isn’t possible. There won’t be enough buyers. (Sounds like homes today) When/if sentiment changes, there goes the market.
Most will ask the same questions as they do about houses, “how come I can’t sell”Although the major housing losses will be regional, a real downturn in stocks will be national, affecting every single square inch of the country.
Some of the hedge fund money and similar risky investments came from pension funds and average investors Joe & Jane without them even knowing. The total leveraged losses will be covered up by shenanigan accounting for as long as possible.
I read a about a recent pension fund that EXPECTS 8% return year over year. To me it says we NEED 8% or we’re in trouble.
Some of the perps will hope to die before the coverups come to light.
I hope it doesn’t happen. It’s gonna make people wish that it was only as bad as Enron or Worldcom.
ParticipantWhat NOBODY talks about is who/what is at risk, as far as average Joe & Jane investor.
There are multi millions of people “investing” in the stock market via 401K, IRA’s etc for their retirement, without having a CLUE what they are doing, just blindly buying stocks via mutual funds or whatever. It’s what they are told to do, so they have money taken out of every single paycheck.
It’s akin to people who bought homes at inflated prices, without having a clue what they were doing. The end result (again) is that some people will get lucky, others will get burned badly.
It isn’t a myth that only a small % of mutual funds beat the indexes, yet fund mangers collect mgmt fees based on the amounts of the funds.
The pitch of the investment industry is that over time, the market returns 11% on average. Please try explaining that simple sentence to someone who had a million dollar portfolio in tech stocks prior to the dot.com bust. I know of accounts that went from $1 mil to $50k pretty fast.
They had been investing for years, hoping to retire around 2002. Plans change.
The innocence of so many people that have a fair amount of money in stocks for retirement is staggering. No idea of p/e, p/s, market cap, enterprise value, growth stocks, value stocks, etc. just assuming that it will grow to an expected amount due to compounding growth (Because we all know that it’s TIME in the market, not timing)
Hopefully for all, people will not want to cash out en masse, but what some people don’t realize is it also isn’t possible. There won’t be enough buyers. (Sounds like homes today) When/if sentiment changes, there goes the market.
Most will ask the same questions as they do about houses, “how come I can’t sell”Although the major housing losses will be regional, a real downturn in stocks will be national, affecting every single square inch of the country.
Some of the hedge fund money and similar risky investments came from pension funds and average investors Joe & Jane without them even knowing. The total leveraged losses will be covered up by shenanigan accounting for as long as possible.
I read a about a recent pension fund that EXPECTS 8% return year over year. To me it says we NEED 8% or we’re in trouble.
Some of the perps will hope to die before the coverups come to light.
I hope it doesn’t happen. It’s gonna make people wish that it was only as bad as Enron or Worldcom.
ParticipantHi David,,
A simple answer: Money doesn’t disappear, perceived value disappears…A stock cannot be sold without somebody wanting to buy it. You cannot sell a share into thin air or into “the system”
Based on supply and demand there are always shares changing hands, so someone must buy for someone else to sell. The seller gets MONEY. The buyer gets shares of stock. So far you theory is sorta right.Imagine that there are 1 million shares outstanding that people paid various prices for. If the stock is $20 a share on Monday, it’s $20 million in “market cap” for that company, (regardless of what people paid per share).
On Friday, if ths stock drops to $5 a share, the market cap drops to $5 million…. $15 million just disappeared from perceived value.
Often times it is in the hundreds of millions or even billions that disappears. It was only worth that on paper.
Everybody couldn’t cash out at the same time, because you wouldn’t find the buyers. You couldn’t sell 10% of homes for what people think they are worth either.Home equity and stocks are paper “value” until actually sold. If your house was worth $500K 2 years ago and $400K today, did $100K of money disappear ? NO, but $100K of VALUE did. It STILL isn’t money until you sell it (AND get paid) Selling something on credit isn’t money either.
Real money is CASH, and that’s why cash is king.
Make sense ?ParticipantHi David,,
A simple answer: Money doesn’t disappear, perceived value disappears…A stock cannot be sold without somebody wanting to buy it. You cannot sell a share into thin air or into “the system”
Based on supply and demand there are always shares changing hands, so someone must buy for someone else to sell. The seller gets MONEY. The buyer gets shares of stock. So far you theory is sorta right.Imagine that there are 1 million shares outstanding that people paid various prices for. If the stock is $20 a share on Monday, it’s $20 million in “market cap” for that company, (regardless of what people paid per share).
On Friday, if ths stock drops to $5 a share, the market cap drops to $5 million…. $15 million just disappeared from perceived value.
Often times it is in the hundreds of millions or even billions that disappears. It was only worth that on paper.
Everybody couldn’t cash out at the same time, because you wouldn’t find the buyers. You couldn’t sell 10% of homes for what people think they are worth either.Home equity and stocks are paper “value” until actually sold. If your house was worth $500K 2 years ago and $400K today, did $100K of money disappear ? NO, but $100K of VALUE did. It STILL isn’t money until you sell it (AND get paid) Selling something on credit isn’t money either.
Real money is CASH, and that’s why cash is king.
Make sense ?ParticipantHi David,,
A simple answer: Money doesn’t disappear, perceived value disappears…A stock cannot be sold without somebody wanting to buy it. You cannot sell a share into thin air or into “the system”
Based on supply and demand there are always shares changing hands, so someone must buy for someone else to sell. The seller gets MONEY. The buyer gets shares of stock. So far you theory is sorta right.Imagine that there are 1 million shares outstanding that people paid various prices for. If the stock is $20 a share on Monday, it’s $20 million in “market cap” for that company, (regardless of what people paid per share).
On Friday, if ths stock drops to $5 a share, the market cap drops to $5 million…. $15 million just disappeared from perceived value.
Often times it is in the hundreds of millions or even billions that disappears. It was only worth that on paper.
Everybody couldn’t cash out at the same time, because you wouldn’t find the buyers. You couldn’t sell 10% of homes for what people think they are worth either.Home equity and stocks are paper “value” until actually sold. If your house was worth $500K 2 years ago and $400K today, did $100K of money disappear ? NO, but $100K of VALUE did. It STILL isn’t money until you sell it (AND get paid) Selling something on credit isn’t money either.
Real money is CASH, and that’s why cash is king.
Make sense ?ParticipantI tell people that nobody cares what you paid except YOU (Houses, stocks etc.) and if you cannot take it back and get a refund, you shouldn’t care either.
It’s worth what it’s worth, just try and find a buyer.
ParticipantI tell people that nobody cares what you paid except YOU (Houses, stocks etc.) and if you cannot take it back and get a refund, you shouldn’t care either.
It’s worth what it’s worth, just try and find a buyer.
ParticipantI tell people that nobody cares what you paid except YOU (Houses, stocks etc.) and if you cannot take it back and get a refund, you shouldn’t care either.
It’s worth what it’s worth, just try and find a buyer.
ParticipantThere’s another thing that I want to know.. Does the TV show pay these people ? (On a show like WIFE SWAP each family gets $50K) Is it just ego to say that my flip was on TV ? Why else let them intrude on your life ?
Do most/all flips they show get completed ?
Ya gotta know that a certain % of people that they start filming have to be complete wackos, way out of their league and get totally overwhelmed instantly or somwhere along the line realize that they are in way over their head for whatever reason.They never show those people, do they? I really don’t watch it often, but know it is a popular show. I wonder what % of “flips” they film actually make it to be shown.
I’m sure there have been fights and divorces over this stuff, and someone who appears totally screwed, like $80K over budget, maxed out on credit cards, near broke and stressed out doesn’t make for good TV from their perspective. I’d actually like to see the truth!
I suggest a show co-hosted by Jerry Springer AND Dr. Phil and call it “COULDN’T Flip this House” It would be my favorite show, my TIVO is ready. Guests could be the people whose homes are shown on MTV CRIBS, with their opinions.
(Several other morbid curiousities of mine are where are the stock day traders that went from miilions to minimum wage job AND what exactly happens to a passenger that misses a cruise ship in port with no passport or toothbrush on them. What does it cost them to catch up with their ship ??)
ParticipantThere’s another thing that I want to know.. Does the TV show pay these people ? (On a show like WIFE SWAP each family gets $50K) Is it just ego to say that my flip was on TV ? Why else let them intrude on your life ?
Do most/all flips they show get completed ?
Ya gotta know that a certain % of people that they start filming have to be complete wackos, way out of their league and get totally overwhelmed instantly or somwhere along the line realize that they are in way over their head for whatever reason.They never show those people, do they? I really don’t watch it often, but know it is a popular show. I wonder what % of “flips” they film actually make it to be shown.
I’m sure there have been fights and divorces over this stuff, and someone who appears totally screwed, like $80K over budget, maxed out on credit cards, near broke and stressed out doesn’t make for good TV from their perspective. I’d actually like to see the truth!
I suggest a show co-hosted by Jerry Springer AND Dr. Phil and call it “COULDN’T Flip this House” It would be my favorite show, my TIVO is ready. Guests could be the people whose homes are shown on MTV CRIBS, with their opinions.
(Several other morbid curiousities of mine are where are the stock day traders that went from miilions to minimum wage job AND what exactly happens to a passenger that misses a cruise ship in port with no passport or toothbrush on them. What does it cost them to catch up with their ship ??)
ParticipantThere’s another thing that I want to know.. Does the TV show pay these people ? (On a show like WIFE SWAP each family gets $50K) Is it just ego to say that my flip was on TV ? Why else let them intrude on your life ?
Do most/all flips they show get completed ?
Ya gotta know that a certain % of people that they start filming have to be complete wackos, way out of their league and get totally overwhelmed instantly or somwhere along the line realize that they are in way over their head for whatever reason.They never show those people, do they? I really don’t watch it often, but know it is a popular show. I wonder what % of “flips” they film actually make it to be shown.
I’m sure there have been fights and divorces over this stuff, and someone who appears totally screwed, like $80K over budget, maxed out on credit cards, near broke and stressed out doesn’t make for good TV from their perspective. I’d actually like to see the truth!
I suggest a show co-hosted by Jerry Springer AND Dr. Phil and call it “COULDN’T Flip this House” It would be my favorite show, my TIVO is ready. Guests could be the people whose homes are shown on MTV CRIBS, with their opinions.
(Several other morbid curiousities of mine are where are the stock day traders that went from miilions to minimum wage job AND what exactly happens to a passenger that misses a cruise ship in port with no passport or toothbrush on them. What does it cost them to catch up with their ship ??)
ParticipantOf course you “speaketh the truth”
Fraud is possible, even in a full doc loan.
The lenders know this.
If you were told that you had a million dollars to loan out,and your income depended on loaning it out, would you only loan to perfect borrowers a penny at a time ?
(And by the way, when the first million is gone, we will give you more) Didn’t think so.YES, the crazy financing fueled the speculation. It was a mania. I KNEW the housing market would crash, I just didn’t know when. It wasn’t a difficult decision for me to sell all my rentals. I’m no genius.
What we all have to realize is that the govt (in theory) has the best and brightest working for and advising them, ala Greenspan, et al. If you and I knew the housing would collapse, don’t you think they did too ?
Regardless of the “official” statements, they KNEW there was a problem, but ignored it.In ECON 101 you learn that extending credit is a risk. extending 100% financing is suicide, unless you compensate for that risk. Easy margin financing also contributed to 1929 stock margin crash. (Like 5% or 10% down) History PROVES that it’s only a matter of WHEN the collapse happens, not IF it will happen.
When you buy something using a credit card, you are financing 100%. When you pay in full, you don’t owe a penny in interest, very convenient. However, the compenstaing factor for the risk is charging 15%-30% interest instead of 8% on a home. You have nothing invested except your credit score on either.
With a mortgage, charging 8% instead of 6% was never worth the risk, but because of mania & marketing average people got swept up, and bid the price of the underlying product up.
In economic theory, loaning 100% today is no more risky than it was 5 years ago, except that consumer sentiment has changed and prices are dropping, not rising.There are 5 fingers to point blame with. Govt, Wall Street, Lender, Broker, and Consumer. Whose fault is it really ?
I never bought a home 100%, that option didn’t exist. I did get some easy no qualifying assumables, and owner carrybacks though. I survived the 90’s and had my wide eyes open a few years ago, shaking my head all the way up and now nodding my head on the way down.
In my younger days, I could have been easily tempted by 100% financing. I understand the lure.Robert Allen had a famous book, Nothing Down For the 90’s. I never made any offers like that, but I knew what they were. Never went to his seminars either, I think that he still is doing them, pumping people up and collecting fees.
What are Carlton Sheets and John Beck doing these days ?
Wade Cook went BK.ParticipantOf course you “speaketh the truth”
Fraud is possible, even in a full doc loan.
The lenders know this.
If you were told that you had a million dollars to loan out,and your income depended on loaning it out, would you only loan to perfect borrowers a penny at a time ?
(And by the way, when the first million is gone, we will give you more) Didn’t think so.YES, the crazy financing fueled the speculation. It was a mania. I KNEW the housing market would crash, I just didn’t know when. It wasn’t a difficult decision for me to sell all my rentals. I’m no genius.
What we all have to realize is that the govt (in theory) has the best and brightest working for and advising them, ala Greenspan, et al. If you and I knew the housing would collapse, don’t you think they did too ?
Regardless of the “official” statements, they KNEW there was a problem, but ignored it.In ECON 101 you learn that extending credit is a risk. extending 100% financing is suicide, unless you compensate for that risk. Easy margin financing also contributed to 1929 stock margin crash. (Like 5% or 10% down) History PROVES that it’s only a matter of WHEN the collapse happens, not IF it will happen.
When you buy something using a credit card, you are financing 100%. When you pay in full, you don’t owe a penny in interest, very convenient. However, the compenstaing factor for the risk is charging 15%-30% interest instead of 8% on a home. You have nothing invested except your credit score on either.
With a mortgage, charging 8% instead of 6% was never worth the risk, but because of mania & marketing average people got swept up, and bid the price of the underlying product up.
In economic theory, loaning 100% today is no more risky than it was 5 years ago, except that consumer sentiment has changed and prices are dropping, not rising.There are 5 fingers to point blame with. Govt, Wall Street, Lender, Broker, and Consumer. Whose fault is it really ?
I never bought a home 100%, that option didn’t exist. I did get some easy no qualifying assumables, and owner carrybacks though. I survived the 90’s and had my wide eyes open a few years ago, shaking my head all the way up and now nodding my head on the way down.
In my younger days, I could have been easily tempted by 100% financing. I understand the lure.Robert Allen had a famous book, Nothing Down For the 90’s. I never made any offers like that, but I knew what they were. Never went to his seminars either, I think that he still is doing them, pumping people up and collecting fees.
What are Carlton Sheets and John Beck doing these days ?
Wade Cook went BK. -
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