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heavyd
ParticipantI don’t think you’re going to find any incentives on the new LS460 for at least a year. It’s a new, highly desirable model, and volumes tend to be limited at launch, so it’s a sellers’ market at least until they ramp up production. I would be surprised, however, if you could not get discounts on the 7-series as this has been around for several years and is due to be replaced fairly soon.
November 2, 2006 at 11:19 AM in reply to: Reductions in price per square feet in Carmel Valley #39042ParticipantI agree, this type of “pressured” sale will become more typical and thus have a significant impact on overall pricing over the next several months.
I did not have the exact address but drove by White Emerald this AM on my way to work — there are only about a dozen houses on the street.
Yes, the homes on White Emerald are situated across from a busy street (though there is a high wall to reduce noise), and yes, the homes are quite homogeneous (late ’90s SoCal McMansion — certainly not to my taste).
But these homes are BIG and I believe every single one of them overlooks a nice canyon. Furthermore, it’s walking distance to the high school and on a cul-de-sac to boot.
In other words, from the outside at least, these are rather attractive Carmel Valley homes…and the bar has been lowered to about $250 per square foot going forward.
That is rough…
November 1, 2006 at 3:00 PM in reply to: Reductions in price per square feet in Carmel Valley #38946ParticipantWow, ZK, do you have a link to the listing of that place on White Emerald Drive? Clearly the initial asking price was pure fantasy, but if deal was done at $1.05m then we’re talking close to $250 per square foot. Ouch!
KingKong, fully agree Verona is still priced ‘wrong’. It just shouldn’t take this much time / effort to sell these places…HD
ParticipantRe-read my first post, I quoted you saying 60% usually beat and 20% meet — that’s 80% beating or meeting, right?
ParticipantTo answer my own question, here’s how stocks can consistently “surprise on the upside”:
Proctor & Gamble, PS US, is a Dow Industrials component.
According to I/B/E/S, there are 17 analysts on Wall Street who actively cover the name.
For the September 2006 quarter (to be reported next week, on 10/31), the range of estimates is 76 to 79 cents per share, with consensus at 77.9 cents.
Even for a consumer products company, that’s a pretty narrow range, don’t you think?
And management’s own guidance? Between 76 and 78 cents — so The Street is expecting a result above the mid-point of management’s guidance. Pretty aggressive!
PG will do about $18bn in revenue in Q3, and maybe $2.8bn in net profit. Between the top line and the bottom line PG management has about seven jillion ways to manipulate reported earnings.
So…I am betting that PG, like a lot of listed companies, will beat earnings next week.
Buy some PG!!
ParticipantDid anyone else do a double-take when they read in qcomer’s post that 80% of reporting companies “usually” beat or at least meet expectations?
I’m not saying it’s wrong, and I’m not saying that many US companies have been reporting decent numbers the past 2-3 weeks…
But think about it…how is it that corporates keep “surprising on the upside” much more than half of the time?
Worth thinking about…
ParticipantSanta Luz is the community that you see to either side of Camino del Sur as you head north of Hwy 56. Technically, I guess it begins as you pass Carmel Mountain Road heading North, and it ends when Camino del Sur ends a couple miles beyond that intersection. Keep heading North and you’ll get to the new community of Del Sur.
The part that is East of Camino del Sur is generally low density (near the golf course), while the part West of Camino del Sur features homes in the 3000-4000 sq ft range on fairly small lots, similar to Carmel Valley.
Lastly, you CAN get to Escondido / Poway from RSF if you just take county road S-7 (?) that heads due east from the village of RSF. It’s mainly a 2-lane road that goes past the new Crosby / Links / El Cielo subdivisions and then along the Western part of Lake Hodges. It’s hardly an interstate, but probably a bit quicker than heading down to 56 and then over to I-15.
ParticipantI always drive around Santa Luz at night to put my daughter to sleep in the car. I agree some of the homes are quite nice, but I also agree it’s WAY out there — lots of driving involved just to do your basic shopping, and only a handful of mediocre restaurants at that small shopping center near Hwy 56. Seriously, you’d have to drive 20 minutes to buy a beer at a bar!
Apart from its isolated location, the other reasons we never seriously considered moving there are traffic and, of course, the cost of ownership. I just don’t think Camino del Sur is going to be able to handle all the commuter traffic once Santa Luz and Del Sur are fully sold and occupied. And as someone else pointed out, between HOA and Mello-Roos, you’re at least $1000 out of pocket each month before you even start to pay your mortgage. Add to that the inflated prices, and total cost of ownership would be well above virtually all of Carmel Valley and probably very similar to the nicer parts of Encinitas or Solana Beach.
Anyway, since I drive my daughter around there regularly, I have noticed a significant increase in the number of ‘for sale’ signs posted at / near one of the main Santa Luz entrances. As I recall, the HOA had strict rules about how you can market your home (no garish signs, etc). Now, it’s a free for all — lots of big signs near all the entrances!
October 20, 2006 at 11:11 AM in reply to: Reductions in price per square feet in Carmel Valley #38081ParticipantThis Verona mini-development (8-10 homes?) has been marketed fairly aggressively since early this year and recently they cut asking prices by $40-50K to a bit below $1m. As KingKong pointed out, they are on tiny lots, and to make matters worse, all the lots I have seen have steep grades and low retaining walls, so effectively you end up with a narrow strip appropriate only for a small patio and a few chairs, not a real yard.
Having said that, it’s a good location — walking distance to 2-3 parks and good elementary and middle schools, even the Vons shopping center is just a 5 minute walk away. And no Mello-Roos since it’s part of an older neighborhood.
But this makes it all the more surprising that they haven’t been able to move a measly 8-10 homes over the past 6-9 months, despite the aggro marketing (5% price cuts, sign twirlers, etc) and despite it’s location in a prime ‘hot’ neighborhood.
ParticipantI’m not quite as fat as the real Heavy D, but it seems I am getting there…
ParticipantBostonandOC is right, housing prices are set primarily by supply of new homes and demand from wage earners (how ‘nice’ a place is has very little to do with it). In the case of supply, SFO (the city proper) is almost 100% built out — the only way to add supply is to build upwards, which is tough to do given their building codes. And there is very strong demand in SFO from people making good money in high tech, finance (now dozens of successful hedge funds up there), and media. SD has far fewer high paying jobs than SFO or NYC or London, and a quick drive along highway 56 or through the eastern part of Carlsbad or around the ballpark will show you we have LOTS of new supply coming online…so prices fall. Sure, we have nice weather and good beaches, but that’s always been the case. If good weather and nice beaches were the primary determinants of housing prices, Cabo San Lucas would be more expensive than SD…
ParticipantHammer, when I moved back to SD 18 months ago, my wife and 2 young kids temporarily stayed back in NYC while I moved in with an old high school buddy in South Park / Golden Hill (his craftsman is on Grape near Granada). I was there for about 3 months in Spring, and I really liked it, although I’m not sure it’s a great family neighborhood…yet.
Pros: Proximity to Balboa Park, Downtown, and Freeways; lots of laid back bars and a growing number of decent restaurants nearby; beautiful mix of well cared for Craftsman and Mission style bungalows, all of which have sidewalks out in front. And my buddy’s place gets the best breezes through his house…all year long!
Cons: Ex-cons…seriously, the south end of South Park, near Hwy 94, is home to several halfway houses — you will be shocked if you do an online search for registered sex offenders in the area. A bit of airport noise, especially closer to 94. And I think the local elementary school (Brooklyn?) is still in transition — getting better, but not so good at this point. But SD Unified School District has some magnet and other programs that may be attractive.
If I were single, or if it were just my wife and me, I would love to live in South Park (or Mission Hills, Kensington, Pt Loma). As someone with 2 young kids, it would not be my first choice, however.
ParticipantHedge funds on average are up just 6-7% YTD, with a lot of dispersion (ie, I know guys down 10% and up 30%). I am sure the latest rally helped a bit, but not much. There will probably be some more fund implosions over the next few months as managers take on risk to try to finish the year in double digits.
I don’t know anyone in the investment community who thinks the worst is over in housing / credit — things will get ugly, but I think that’s fully priced in at this point.
All I’m saying is, let’s not take the admitedly INSANE views of some of the people we meet in the S.D. real estate market as consensus views. I am an S.D. native who grew up here but worked elsewhere until early 2005; one day shortly after moving back here, I remember silently rolling my eyes as I overheard a 20-something woman at a bagel shop in Carmel Valley say, “Yeah, maybe housing prices will level off, but people NEVER sell for less than what they paid!”
Participant“Second, there is one single piece of information that this board believes in and that is different from the mainstream perception. This one piece is housing and credit.”
RSeiser, as a buy-side analyst I have literally seen dozens of presentations over the last 2 years about what a housing slump means to the US and global banking systems. If you can believe it, Wall Street is even more obsessed with this issue than readers of this site!
My point is that investors have long anticipated a housing slowdown and have quantified the impacts that it will have on the economy and the banking / credit system here in the US and around the world. And yes, a lot of investors anticipate a real crash in housing prices, much worse than what we’re seeing in S.D. to date.
In other words, the generally pessimistic views on housing expressed by most visitors to this site are the CONSENSUS views of investors around the country and indeed around the globe.
Clearly, these views are not shared by a lot of real estate market participants here in S.D. (realtors, developers, people who bought at just about any point in the last 24 months…), who will have their asses handed to them as prices roll over.
But seriously, what would you expect them to say?
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