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December 1, 2016 at 10:49 AM in reply to: Rented my new condo without listing or showing shortly after closing #804183gzzParticipant
Poorgradstudent, I moved to SD during the big bubble and waited for it to pop before buying in 2011, even though I moved here to take a 6-figure job and could have purchased immediately. It was a 6 year wait for me.
I think you will have a much longer wait than me. Incomes are higher, rates are lower, population is higher, net worth is higher, Asian interest is higher, and we have none of the NINA 0% down insanity of 2003-07.
If you want to settle down in SD or anywhere nice on the West Coast I suggest you not wait.
November 29, 2016 at 12:44 AM in reply to: Rented my new condo without listing or showing shortly after closing #804137gzzParticipantSPD: about 7%.
November 29, 2016 at 12:42 AM in reply to: Rented my new condo without listing or showing shortly after closing #804136gzzParticipantI ended up going with a laminate on sale at HD for 49c. The hardwoods that I actually liked, generally the bumpy ones with natural texture you can dig a fingernail into, were in the $4-5 range, but in real life you really do not often caress the floor in a way you can tell the difference. I will be using carpet I got from Lowe’s 2 years ago marked down 90% for the bedrooms. The flooring manager saw me looking at the clearance products and made me a good deal if I got them all.
My only splurge so far has been a pretty $140 ceiling fan that has a higher clearance due to a thin LED light. I may also get expensive curtains to best frame and show off the ocean view windows, the old ones were yellow with tobacco stains. I noticed after removing them the windows looked a little smaller with the empty blank space around them.
I can’t rent it short term like you do, there is a HOA minimum 1 month but fees for each tenant move in run about $200. So weekly is not allowed and even one month is impractical.
I also briefly tried VRBO for my rental house and it was too distracting from my day job.
I am also not so sure the OB market can support a super high end renovation as a rental, 2200 is already the high side for a 2/2 condo, go up to $2400 and you are competing with smaller SFH rentals.
November 27, 2016 at 3:40 PM in reply to: Rented my new condo without listing or showing shortly after closing #804123gzzParticipantIt is a 2/2. The first year “cash on cash” return is about 3.5%, including principal reduction it is about 8%.
I estimate conservatively rent will rise 15% in 5 years and HOA tax and insurance will rise 10% which will produce a year-5 cash return of 5.4% and total return of 11.8%.
That then has to be adjusted up to account for the fact depreciation allows the rental profit taxes be deferred, or not paid at all if I die owning it and the basis readjusts.
Ultimately I think I may not hold it that long as I think we will have another bubble and I will sell it then.
gzzParticipantThere are plenty of 15 year Treasuries: 30 year Treasuries with 15 years left on them.
You can also find what rates are for for them by checking the yield curve.
So the answer to your question is that Treasuries maturing in Feb 2031 yield 2.495%.
In practice you can repay your mortgage if rates fall, but the feds cannot. This option value requires you to pay a higher rate, so the numbers are not comparable. Prepayments also mean mortgage rates are more closely correlated to shorter term Treasuries.
gzzParticipantDylan is 180 units and on the site of Barnard Elementary school. Predictably San Diego sold the land at a crazy low price:
http://www.sandiegoreader.com/news/2014/nov/07/stringers-barnard-demolished-new-apartments/#
The former Cabrillo hospital on Wing St has been empty for many years. There is a 5-story building next door that is half empty that used to be doctor offices. I went on a tour 5 years ago when I was looking for office space. The hospital next door looked depressing.
Language education is a great source of clean jobs. I studied abroad at a language school when I was 17 and 18 and it was a wonderful experience, I am glad foreign students will be coming to San Diego to do the same.
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/sd-me-hospital-school-20160922-story.html
–there was talk of the hospital potentially serving as a large homeless shelter or as temporary housing for refugees.–
That would not have been good for Peninsula property values! Now we just need to move SAN up to Miramar.
gzzParticipantRates are up from this summer when they were at/near 5-year lows, but are slightly below rates 12 months ago and well below what they were during the huge 2013-2014 bull run (not to mention well below the rates during the big bubble).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NUh
I’ll be worried if they go above the 4.3-4.5% range of July 2013 to May 2014. Not too worried though, I am locked in for 30 years with payments well below rents.
gzzParticipantThe Census link is very bullish. 0.9% growth in SD County and 1.5% growth in SD City in just one year.
Desired household growth is probably even faster due to population aging.
Meanwhile what is the growth rate of SD City housing stock? I’d guess in OB proper something like 0.1% a year due to infill and tear downs. But normal rental supply is falling due to AirBNB, including the house I rented on a normal lease when I moved here a long time ago, and switched to AirBNB 2 years ago. The number of properties with room for and zoned for a back unit is dwindling each year too.
The Dylan apartment complex did add a lot of supply in Loma Portal as it replaced a former school site and is pretty big. All of it consists of smaller and high priced units however. Midway and Loma Portal seem to have a few more underdeveloped lots that could be turned into apartment complexes. The old hospital on Wing St is being turned into a language school for visiting students.
gzzParticipantIn Point Loma and Ocean Beach zip codes there is a combined one listing for a SFH under $700,000 and a combined four listings between 700 and 800.
The pace of Chinese buying will only grow as about half of the entire worlds economic growth is in China.
gzzParticipantWhy on earth would Trump let rates rise? Just put in soft money people at the fed, help manufacturing, have the fed buy all the paper Fannie and Freddie put out if the Europeans with their negative interest rates don’t want it.
This could lead to inflation and a weak dollar maybe, but that just cuts the real value of Trump Org’s big pile of fixed rate debt.
Here the personal and political interest of Trump and soft money Democrats plus industrial unions all align.
gzzParticipantYou will find a lender but the rate will be so high it kills the deal. Just put down 25%.
gzzParticipantA related issue is that I am averse to anything fake. Now laminate is basically sawdust and glue with a veneer, but is still pretty close to the real thing.
I wish HD carried some that did not try to look like wood, but were just a single color. I may try other stores, which could have cheaper prices too.
gzzParticipantI think hotels get around this by having two shower heads.
gzzParticipantResponding to HLS,
Racial discrimination in housing cases are few and far between, and rarely involve smaller landlords. Much more common are disability suits against landlords.
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