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gzz
ParticipantI am not surprised the vegas conplex pencils out just fine. Prices still have a ways up to go.
ParticipantI agree that childcare rent and medical are inflating. I am not a doctor or nanny and that won’t change. But I can buy rental real estate. People are shifting their money into rent medical and childcare and out of the deflating areas. Which is actually most of the stock market.
I bet most childcare workers are also spending their growing wages mostly on rising rents.
ParticipantHow about we skip the stupid soccer stadium idea and sell Amazon Qualcomm with no height and density restrictions? They’d need to build something for SDSU there, but they can share parking since Amazon will need less on football Saturdays.
ParticipantI think inflation even at 0% is overstated.
For middle class people, new cell phones, PCs, and car payments are major expenses.
Inflation figures have never tried to capture tech improvements.
But these days the biggest changes to cell phones, PCs, and cars is they last so much longer.
The average age of cars in the US fleet keeps going up, reflecting just how long cars last now.
Likewise, in 2013 it would be pretty bad to have a 2010 cell phone. The battery would be in bad shape and it would be badly out of date. But in 2017, I’d be just fine with a 2014 cell phone.
The useful life of a PC these days I now consider to average about six years, and I am a power user.
The thing that used to fail the most on PCs was the hard drive. But now I use SSDs, which last a very long time with no moving parts.
In 2007, I would consider a new $600 cell phone every 2 years and new $1500 PC every 3 years to be typical for power users who care about these things. So that is $800 a year on these things, ($960 in current dollars).
Now it is a new $800 phone every three years and a new $1300 PC every 6 years, so that is about $480 a year. Almost exactly half of my prior pattern, which I think reflected other techie power users too.
Cord-cutting and Netflix seems to be also cutting entertainment expenses. And wow, TVs just keep getting cheaper and cheaper. For the same specs, seems like 25% decline in price per year is typical.
ParticipantI purchased a condo in OB a bit less than a year ago.
My down payment + renovation expense (including carry costs when it was vacant) was about $100,000.
At this point, I think it is worth about $130,000 more than I paid for it. So my cash-on-cash return is more than 100% in one year.
Some of this large return is me getting lucky on a below-market condo in ugly but easy to fix condition. And I am not including the value of my labor. Still, I could have purchased just about any condo in San Diego last year and had a return of at least 50% and quite likely 100%.
I ended up renting it to someone I like about 5% below market (now about 10% below market), but even this low rent is about 3k more per year than mortgage/tax/HOA, so the free cash flow return is 3%.
But if you include the part of my monthly cost that goes to principal, then the return on rent without even factoring in appreciation is more like 8%.
In summary, San Diego real estate is an excellent investment, even if you assume 0% appreciation in prices. And of course we will go up more than 0% a year.
ParticipantThe best account opening bonuses have been Chase Ink 80,000 bonus. I transfer to SW and use them to save $1700 off flights.
If I ever use them, my BA miles bonus will be used for $2000 off a premium economy trip on the SAN-London nonstop. 11 hours each way. I already used a few to go to NYC for a low season $350 flight. So $2350 from a single credit card signup.
I prefer SW still since it is easy to book free flights with miles. With other airlines it is at least 1-2 hours of research. On SW it takes under 3 minutes.
ParticipantI am mostly an optimist but i think people underestimate the risk of these disasters.
To clarify I mean puts on SPY, which cost about $70-100 each for the ones I buy.
ParticipantNice. I am still paying off the 20k i borrowed for public university. But 30 years at 2.7% fixed. Those cushy federal loans are long gone for current students.
Backpacking in Europe and Asia after school was a great decision for me. It is so hard to take time off work now! But SC Jr has hot skills so can probably find more flexibile employment.
ParticipantIf you want the 500k cap gain exemption, don’t get divorced and don’t move before you sell. There is a time period between exempt sales, so if you claimed it on another property you might want to hold to wait it out.
I think holding for a year you will likely make another 6-12%.
If you are buying another place, getting it while you are still working will simplify the mortgage process.
I think FSBO is the way to go in a hot market.
ParticipantScaredy stop being a tease, what was the price per sq foot installed?
ParticipantI wonder what my old growth redwood possible teardown house is worth in scrap?
During renovation I saved every bit I removed. Termite and rot damage free unlike the wood used in later renovations. Lots of 4x4s that are actually 4″ not 3.5 like new ones. The roof has dozens of long 2x4s too.
ParticipantGood discussion of full v discount agents and FSBO this 11 years ago.
https://piggington.com/how_much_should_i_offer_as_a_cooperating_commission
ParticipantKids love loft beds. I climbed trees a lot more dangerous looking than that when I was 9. Not good for little kids of course.
I don’t think that roof deck is up to code either.
Overall though it looks like a great use of space.
ParticipantOB rcently got three prefab houses. I think the developers were only about 30 and it was their first project. The lot had been vacant for at least a decade. Now only two vacant lots remain in OB west of Ebers, one right next to it and one on Santa Monica.
It actually looks better in person, the pics make it look dated ultramodern.
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