[gzz]

The 2019 numbers in your chart need minus signs for Germany France Holland and UK.

Rates can only get so far below 0, you’d think, so the money flows will eventually have to go to our bond market with its juicy returns of more than 1%.

You see a little of that in the chart, the biggest rate declines are the ones that started above 2.4%.

The lowest rate in the world is on Swiss bonds maturing in 9 years at -1.17%.

I read a couple days ago that $17 trillion of world gov debt now has negative yields. Corporate bonds in Europe often have negative rates too.

[gzz]

Flyer, the cheap off brand companies in the US are mostly just fronts for the big 4.

ATT is one of the few US stocks I am long. Their market could certainly decline slowly due to discounting. And I hope they don’t borrow a ton of money for a 5G network buildout that people don’t actually care enough about to pay an extra $5 a month.

Even if they do soon enter a slow decline, their shares are cheap with very solid and consistent profits.

[gzz]

“Lower rates don’t mean households go out and borrow immediately especially during periods of economic anxiety.”

Haha you don’t know your people very well. Americans just can’t help themselves, we are optimistic, not anxious.

“Some real estate deals are cash only. Like condos in communities witth low owner occupancy.”

The alternative investment of bonds keeps getting worse and worse. I think stocks are roughly at fair value and would guess returns over the next 5 years of about 2% appreciation and 3% dividend. Not bad, not great, and plenty of volatility.

For bonds, do you really want to lock in a 1.97% return for 30 years, and have to pay income tax on the full 1.97% every year? Not me!

The problem with the fed rate increases the past few years is banks suddenly are paying 1.5-2% on savings accounts, though you have to move the money around every year to get the promo rates. Let’s knock that down to 0 again.

[gzz]

More record low rates in overnight Asian trading:

30 year US under 2% first time ever

Australia 10 year below 0.9%

JP Morgan says the US ten year bonds could hit 0% in 2021, meaning 1.6% 30 year mortgages.

Oil slips below $55, driving down inflation and defanging the few Fed hawks who don’t want a big rate cut.

German 10-year hits record low of -.65%. Swiss ten year falls below -1%, and the negative Swiss rates extend all the way to the Swiss 50-year bonds, which are at -0.4%.

At this point, if you want the Swiss gov to give you 100 francs in 2069, you have to pay it 122 now. I should start a giant bank vault company and charge only 0.25% a year!

[gzz]

Until 2 months ago i was the last idiot in the USA paying $65 a month for limited data.

I plan to switch to whoever has the best promo when iphone 11 is released.

For some of them, they will give $300 for a trade in, and the trade in can be a $40 phone you get on ebay.

I almost switched to the XR. They have some poor and too girly color choices. Yellow and pale blue, but no dark blue or green? Rather than a unisex orange, it is “coral” with a slight pink tint. Not pink enough for a girl who likes pink, too pink for a man.

[gzz]

Flyer you are usually more solid on politics than to conspiracy theorize.

[gzz]

More all time record low rates broke today in the USA and the rest of the world.

Check out the second graph here:

Wall Street Journal Sounds Fake Alarm Over Mortgage Debt

We are paying less and less to service mortgage debt. A return to the levels of 15 years ago would mean trillions of dollars flooding into our tight RE markets.

[gzz]

Hobie, My plum tree went nuts this year for the first time.

Had about 60 fruit last year, 500+ this year.

That explains the beetles, which seem pretty harmless.

My main animal enemy are gophers. I expanded my grassy lawn 6 months ago. They completely destroyed it. About 15% of it is left. Bermuda grass seems to be partly a deterrent, but it takes forever to establish compared to other types.

I put in a new peach tree in my back yard this year.

One day every single one of the 10 immature peaches it came with disappeared. I blame crows.

[gzz]

Blue Vault seems legit.

Curious about what they pay compared to spot.

Something to remember is physical transactions in gold are pretty much always about 1 or 1.5% below spot, and in silver are 5% over for 1oz coins/rounds and 2-3% over for larger bars. Other PMs have even higher premiums to spot, rarely will physical platinum sell without a 3-5% premium unless it is a huge transaction.

Another thing is California has sales tax on precious metal transactions of $1500 or less. Above that, no sales tax.

[gzz]

How about for our referral list, palm tree trimmers who do small jobs.

I have 4 Mexican Fans that need a trim. I called emailed and texted multiple guys on yelp. Some never replied at all, others asked for a photo but never followed up after I sent one.

They don’t absolutely need a trim and the dried tops provide a bit of shade in the summer. But it also is a home for noisy crows, and my prior trim was because wood wasps were nesting in them. These are harmless, I’d attack their nest from a spray can and they never attacked. But they freak guests out since they are karge and there are a lot of them. For whatever reason they haven’t come back the past two years. Instead this year I have a lot of shiny green beetles.

[gzz]

I’ve done so by mail on the reddit PM sale group. Avoids middlemen, and price is generally spot minus 1%. ebay you can get about the same and ebay waives seller fees all the time.

What type of gold are you selling? The easiest to sell privately is probably small US and French coins.

There are Chinese fakes of those 1oz private mint bars like Pamp.

$1500 is also a lot to deal with at once for most people so I avoid the 1oz coins.

In my view the best are US $5 and $10 gold coins which are basically a quarter and half ounce and the 20 franc French coins that are .1867oz.

There is also a coin store on Garnet in PB. They seem nice. Just call and see what they will pay.

[gzz]

I like all 6 or so of Blondie’s big hits, mostly from before I was born.

If 1980 Blondie time-warped, I’d go see them.

Their music videos are good too and all on youtube.

[gzz]

US 10 year bond rates just hit a 33-month low! This is the rate that ties closest to mortgage rates.

Swiss 10 year rates have hit an all time world record low of -.77. Boggles the mind, give the government 1000 francs, and after ten years it will return 920 of them.

Even if San Diego real estate only yields 4% long term (I think it is well higher), that is more than double what you get investing in bonds, and the real estate is taxed at a lower rate the entire way.

There’s no guarantee we’ll ever get another real estate bubble, but the amount of money on the sidelines making 1.8%, 1%, 0%, -0.5% is gigantic.

We’ve got nearly all the ingredients: tight inventory, low mortgage rates, booming economy, growing population. Memories of losing money 2007-2010 are getting hazy… or non existent for the post 1995 birth cohort.

[gzz]

No, I don’t. I also don’t think it is worth $15 or $1.50 a year.

Major banks and credit cards provide credit report updates for free that would show any of this.

[gzz]

“A 1960s house would be an awesome remodel opportunity.”

Grama’s house in a time warp. Everything well maintained until it breaks, and origional if it didn’t.

The wood paneling in the living room is still there. I don’t think the interior has ever been repainted.

[Author]

Posts