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gzz
ParticipantI don’t think early elementary school it makes any difference to be in a rich versus upper middle class district. They’ll be finger-painting and ABCing the same either way. Maybe by high school the difference in AP classes and peer influence will make that difference important.
And socially, do you want to be the poorest kid in CV or have a background similar to peers? Parents of small tots tend to socialize with their playmates.
ParticipantTin, those large complexes are overpriced in my opinion. They focus on a younger market, people with bad credit, and people who can’t pay the large security deposit small landlords tend to require.
Here’s a renovated 3/2 house with yard in north clairemont for under 3k.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4631-Conrad-Ave-San-Diego-CA-92117/2082981508_zpid/
Might not be that one, but if you can pay 3k and are willing to put some effort into it, you can get a detached house reasonably close to La Jolla.
UC is even closer to La Jolla and sometimes included as part of it. While the prices are high, the lots are usually big and houses big and updated. $3600 4-bed:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4750-Pauling-Ave-San-Diego-CA-92122/16843887_zpid/
ParticipantAirBNB still seems bad for a multi month rental. You have to find a place that takes bookings 9 months in advance but doesn’t have a single booking in your slot. And possibly prepay the whole time.
ParticipantTesla just cut prices a whole bunch in China to get sales that are still below covid. 11k a month are 132k a year. The VW Lavida, by itself, sold more than 500k units in 2019 in China.
Tesla sales tend to spike when a model hits the market for the first time due to pre-sale reservations, and then stay up another few months as people who are interested but don’t want to reserve buy. Then they fall hard.
Seems like we’re at the Full Retard stage of the rally now. Multiple bankrupt companies saw their stock more than double today, such as Hertz, JC Penney and Chesapeake. Nikola, which is a pretend electric car company that IPO’d via a reverse merger and has never sold a single vehicle, now has a market capitalization higher than Tata, Renault, Nissan, and Subaru.
ParticipantAirBNB adds its own charge plus a hotel tax. I don’t think it is a good option beyond 2 months or so. You could stay a few days and if you like it arrange a regular lease, but zillow and craigslist are where I’d start.
ParticipantSan Diego has a big market of school year or “9-month” rentals. The lease goes from Sept to May, and after that you vacate so the owner can do a weekly vacation rental.
So if those are the 9 months you want, you can get a pretty good deal. You can also get part of the summer at the higher weekly rate.
Otherwise, I suggest you just look into people with long term rentals and explain you may need to leave in 9 rather than 12 months and can pay a little extra for this flexibility.
Reasonable price detached house in a good district and near La Jolla? University City or North Clairemont would be my choice.
Depending on where you are coming from, they may seem expensive or cheap, but overall San Diego is more expensive than Delaware. If being very close to La Jolla isn’t needed, all areas along the entire 52 are nice and the highway ends in La Jolla so it remains easy to get to. Prices don’t really go down as you head east, but the houses are larger and newer.
When you budget, keep in mind your heating and AC costs in San Diego will be very low compared to the NE, and are especially low near the coast when winter lows are rarely below 50 and summer highs rarely above 80.
I think San Diego is one of the best places in the world to work from home, and the number of mid-career professionals and small company owners who do this is huge. I think north county probably has more than the city itself and the inner suburbs.
Final point about La Jolla and schools: the local schools there have declining enrollment due to population aging, so it is easy to get your kid into LJ elementary schools if you’re willing to do the drive. The kids will be very welcome because the schools risk closure if student population falls too much, which is what happened in Mission Beach.
Participant“ I’m sorry. Hopefully, you consider some protective call options. Sometimes you win sometimes you lose.”
My total shorts amount to about 4% of my “long” position in real estate and are about equal to my long position in stocks.
So hedging a hedge isn’t needed. I’ll do great overall if the irrational tech bubble continues.
Tesla’s market share of the EV market in Norway, Spain and Holland is not even in the top 5 anymore when it used to be consistently 1 or 2.
It has never made any money, solar roof was a dud with years of declining sales, and in the most competitive markets for EVs it is losing. The Mustang Mach-E to me at least looks cooler than the model Y, has similar specs and price, but comes with the 7500 tax credit that Tesla doesn’t qualify for anymore.
https://www.ford.com/suvs/mach-e/2021/
What’s killing Tesla in Europe is the Audi etron on the high end and Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro and VW eGolf on the low end.
Tesla’s market cap is $164B. Kia and Hyundai combined are under 30B. But they both are beating Tesla at its own game.
Participant“Please don’t get a crazy idea to short Tesla”
Too late for me 🙁
I think it will be a very profitable short in the end and I am very liquid and patient. But so far… 🙁
ParticipantWow 2.5%? Last I looked the average rate was 3.3 so I figured the lower balance/good credit/online lender rates would be around 3.
Question: anyone ever do a “bulk refi” where they refi their primary and their rentals all at the same time? I don’t mean one big loan, just not have to do all the rifi paperwork confirming income and assets and income tax returns all at once. One lender replaces 3 old loans with three new loans, no cash out. And also limiting hard inquiries to 1.
ParticipantI.m not saying there’s an equivalence between student loans and police killings
Free college increases inequality. We all think about the poor kid who uses college to reach the middle class who would benefit from free college.
The reality is such situation is rare, and people from truly poor and working class families who are college material have a lot of cheap college options already between the GI Bill, private scholarships, Pell Grants, community college + scholarship to cheap state school. But they mostly don’t go to college at all because their friends and family didn’t, and they do not enjoy school enough to want to continue it further.
The main impact of free college would be upper middle class people who graduate with 50-100k in debt and then earn top 10 or 20% incomes would be 50-100k richer when they graduate (or their parents would have another 50-100k).
ParticipantI am somewhat familiar with the various student loan forgiveness programs, I don’t think any of them apply to private loans taken by parents.
6% loan by student that might be forgiven seems better than 1.5% by parent that can’t.
I used the direct loan/stafford program, entirely my loans not parents. They were 2 to 4% when taken out, and the “subsidized” ones just meant no interest while I was in school. When I graduated, I consolidated them into a direct loan at 2.8% 30 year direct loan. (One year I got a 5k 5% loan direct from my university which I paid off immediately upon working because of the high rate).
My entire debt of about 100k at graduation could have been forgiven by working for either the government at any level, OR a non-profit, OR simply by being poor. None of those ultimately applied, but the chance of one of them applying to your child is decent, not to mention additional programs.
During the start-up phase of my business, I deferred and capitalized all my payments for about 2.5 years. It took about 3 minutes to make the request online, and it amounted to about a 10k startup loan at 2.8%.
ParticipantThe used sporting good store model I can’t understand. The one in PB is in a large prime spot and gets a lot of browsers but not a ton of people at the cash register. The one in OB I’ve been to a few times and usually I am the only customer inside.
I’m not complaining, I’ve accumulated a large set of nice dumbbells from the PB location, their prices are 30% less than new, and it isn’t like a metal dumbbell gets a lot of wear and tear.
ParticipantExpanding on Rich’s point about long-term value, if we use a 3% nominal discount rate, earnings going to zero in 2020 then recovering fully mean only a 3% decline in a stock’s NPV. Less than 3% if we assume there’s a long term upward trend in earnings, which is reasonable.
While this exercise I think is useful, the market is now heavily fueled by a tech bubble that is more extreme than 1999-2000. And there’s not much sign of it crashing, since there isn’t much leverage involved in terms of debt financing, and the large owners of these stocks are true believers and also have no need to ever sell. To the extent they need cash, they can get margin loans, but they need little cash compared to their holdings.
ParticipantAN, spot on. I don’t personally think we will have substantial inflation. The fed print, while large, is not large enough to make up for the decline in income and demand.
However, my confidence in saying there won’t be high inflation is weak. We’ve simply never had a peacetime deficit anywhere close to this large. And there isn’t much sign of it letting up: Dems want to spend, and Trump and the Senate GOP don’t want a depression as they run for reelection.
Keeping your assets as money could mean both a 5% a year loss because of inflation AND missing out in an inflation-fueled asset bubble. All the while making 1% interest and being taxed on the 1% as ordinary income!
Where to hide out? Real estate! It will benefit from both asset inflation, fed-fueled low rates, and rent inflation. Also, defensive stocks like utilities. My 2nd largest recent buy has been Hanes, HBI. Good economy or bad, people will continue to buy socks, underwear, t-shirts, and athletic wear. I did a deep dive into their financials, and they are pretty strong, and they are not exposed to China as they manufacture mostly in S and SE Asia and Latin America.
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