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gzz
ParticipantI was there once around 2011. A young employee of mine lived with his parents there and we picked him up there on the way to a trip north to LA. I was impressed at the sheer size of the place, like 5500sf on a nice big lot and still pretty cheap.
It was also pretty far. His father commuted to point loma by driving to the coaster and taking the train down to old town. Can’t remember how he did the last leg, but old town train station is very close to the edge of point loma.
July 20, 2021 at 12:31 PM in reply to: Reminder: People never shut up about crypto gains, never mention the losses #822569Participant“Nobody is investing in Coinbase based on its PE ratio.”
Yeah, it is a bubble levered to other bubbles, and a platform for trading worthless fake “coins” and “tokens” that are promoted with fraud and are illegal securities.
Maybe it will pop, maybe it won’t, but the puts are awfully cheap considering how often and hard crypto has crashed.
Ever after falling by about half since the IPO, COIN has a 50% higher market cap than the Nasdaq, the most successful stock exchange in the world.
I read COIN’s annual report and they have a line there about how they get paid by the scammers to give out free tokens as “rewards” for “achievements” that consist of watching promo videos for the scammers’ tokens. In other words, the same model of scammy timeshare operators, we pay you to watch our sales presentation.
July 20, 2021 at 12:23 PM in reply to: Reminder: People never shut up about crypto gains, never mention the losses #822568Participant“There are more than 8,000 monthly active developers working on various cryptocurrency projects”
Yep, and it’s now a 12 year old tech that has still not actually done anything useful for anyone who isn’t a criminal or speculator of some type.
Every “use case” from those 12 years has been heavily funded and showed to be pure hot air. The first one of being used like money is a failure. The second of being used for money transfers (as opposed to purchases) is only used by criminals because it is far slower and more expensive and less secure than other methods.
Meanwhile it has caused gigantic and permanent damage to the environment and facilitated criminal activity of all sorts. Theft, ransomware, international drug smuggling, tax evasion.
“but bubble is maybe what we need for every technology revolution”
Railroads and the Internet are useful to non criminals. I disagree there’s any revolution here. Just hype, senseless and knowing destruction of resources, fraud, and greed. Perhaps the best historical comparison is to private banknotes from the 1800s.
July 19, 2021 at 7:24 PM in reply to: Reminder: People never shut up about crypto gains, never mention the losses #822566ParticipantBitcoin down 52% since May, Dogecoin that Elon Musk was pumping on Twitter and SNL down 77%.
Not hearing so much about it anymore?
I like the chances of my COIN puts.
Company has a 30% margin now. If it loses half its revenue and margin goes down to 15% because of fixed costs, that’s a 75% decline in profit.
What’s a fair PE for a company with a 50% decline in revenue and 75% decline in profit that has rapidly growing competition and may get shut down at anytime and sued out of existence for selling unregistered securities? Well it will be 150 P/E in that case at its current price.
And a 50% decline in revenue is very possible. Trading volume is way down. And whenever I log into paypal I see a “buy crypto” link. Who needs a new account at Coinbase?
Here’s some additional detail:
Short Coinbase $COIN – Mini Thread
1/ Quick thesis/summary after convo with @LSValue and @Pigeonomics yesterday
I have no position and will have no position.
— Dr Buck 👹 (@eriz35) July 14, 2021
As far as an entry point, they are about to report a record quarter that includes the April/May frenzy. That could send them up, but they are supposedly under a legal obligation to note that the current quarter revenues are collapsing.
Balancing this, I say go in about half way now, wait a month or two for a better entry point.
BTW coinbase charges $3 + 0.5% of each trade. So for a $600 trade, you pay $6 or 1%. By contrast, stock brokers these day are almost all no commission. One of a million ways crypto is greatly inferior to all the things it supposedly is going to replace.
The bubble was pumped to new highs by people bragging about their gains. Now everyone is down 52-90% in just 10 weeks. The people who bought the dip got creamed.
Crypto produces absolutely nothing of real economic value, but has a gigantic ecosystem of pumpers, scammers, traders, programmers, miners, etc that need to eat. Roughly speaking, there needs to be at least $3 billion a month of cash inflows from new suckers to trend water. It was a lot more than this early in the year, now it is less.
ParticipantMexico has pretty cheap housing costs, even accounting for their lower income.
Even Mexico City isn’t too expensive, I’d guess the percentage of people living in 1000sf+ homes they or their family own is higher than metro NYC or Boston.
The construction quality is iffy and a lot of people will die in the next big earthquake. People might have a 4000sf lot they use as a family compound that has 2 small complete houses and a third under very slow unpermitted construction.
The weather is very mild year round like SD, so you have a lot of semi-outdoor setups, like a tiled second kitchen that has a roof over it but no walls on two sides.
ParticipantMy Van-Life Life-Partner is also vegetarian.
Between that and living close to People’s Coop and being into raw food, I am eating a fair amount of vegetarian meals.
I don’t eat processed or preserved meat, but when I do eat it, the serving size is fairly large. Like half a chicken or 3/4lb of beef sometimes.
Gazpacho is vegetarian normally, though I suppose you could add meat to it.
Just another reason you should try OB living a try. Just on Voltaire St there’s People’s coop vegetarian grocery, Plant Power veg fast food, Peace Pies raw vegan restaurant, and a vegan bakery whose name I cannot remember. Mr. Moto pizza now has like 6 types of vegetarian and 3 types of vegan pizza, and the ones I tried are great.
Very bike friendly too, especially bacon st. The best way to dip your toe in is doing a 1 or 2 month vacation rental.
ParticipantAll those carbs are bad for you.
Have some steak that is 90% less to make at home, or for something lighter gazpacho.
ParticipantI purchased a few lottery ticket $105 puts for COIN, they cost $150 each.
ParticipantThe chart is crap for many reasons. It even uses the stupid Mercator projection.
The USA does have cheap housing relative to income, especially outside the big coastal markets and a few other hotspots like Denver and Austin.
For example, incomes are about 4 times higher in suburban Ohio compared to Slovakia, but the housing is somewhat more expensive in Slovakia.
Europe has high costs because cars and gas are expensive so people don’t want to live far from work and drive. Europe also generally refuses to change the ag zoning right outside of its cities. My summer working in Europe, I lived at the very edge of where development was allowed. There was an 8-floor apartment tower and a bunch of townhouses or large expensive homes on small lots on one side of the zoning line, then cow pastures and forest on the other. It was charming, but increased housing costs. You generally won’t ever see in California a cow so close to an apartment tower you could hear it moo and toss it half your pain au chocolat, which I did.
Eastern Europe also suffered from little and low quality housing development during the communist era.
ParticipantI would still take Uber instead of a taxi if the price were the same, except if there’s a waiting taxi at a stand.
However, a lot of my Uber use was replacing driving, not replacing a taxi. For example, I can park at SAN or ask someone for a ride, but when Uber cost $9 from OB it was the best option.
I also took Uber from SFO to SF many times for as little as $20. If Uber cost the taxi $65 amount, I might just take BART instead for $9.
I really do like the company a lot, and wish it wasn’t unsustainably unprofitable.
ParticipantThey cost half the price of a taxi, sometimes less.
ParticipantSome low end Phoenix condos sold for under 17k at the bottom, and are now worth about 80-100k.
What was the lowest down payment in 2009-2011 for a condo investment loan? SFH? I have no idea but probably not 20%, and probably not 5-10 in a year.
Participant30 minutes of cleaning would drastically improve these photos, but why bother, $1.9 million houses in SD sell themselves.
https://www.sdlookup.com/Pictures-PTP2105027
The tiny thin dirty bed in one of the bedrooms reminds me of a jail or monk’s cell.
The best touch might be the pile of rusty paint cans in the dead center of the yard. Though the cardboard box in the kitchen sink is a close second.
ParticipantThe Western USA has had faster population and economic growth than the rest since the Mexican Cession.
California has been such a success that it has become as expensive or more so than the ancient centers of civilization and commerce like Peking, Paris, London, and Rome.
Some people want to be as close to the center of the action as they can, others as far away as they can.
I feel SD is the happy and blessed middle, as do millions of others who live here or would do so in a heartbeat if they had the money.
One reason I like OB is that I don’t have to choose between walkable, bike-friendly, and car-friendly. It’s all three, with mild clean ocean breezes 99.5% of the time.
The “compromises” I make are a pittance compared to the benefits. The places you say are “well run” are monotonous and living there is a far bigger compromise.
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