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$575 for a run down 3/1 that is missing its siding and requires $4500 in meth repairs?

A good reminder that while Utah and other interior west markets like Phoenix, Denver, Bend, Sacramento, are cheaper than San Diego, they aren’t that much cheaper.

Here’s a much nicer 3/1 for $599 in city heights: 3087 38th St, San Diego, CA 92105.

Here’s a nice looking 2/2 in Lakeside for $575:
12516 Castle Court Dr, Lakeside, CA 92040

Seems easier to just move 10 miles to the suburbs than to a methlab house in SLC for the same price.

How much meth did they cook up there that they randomly dropped enough on the carpet to detect and need thousands to remove it?

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1. The labor “shortage” are cheap businessmen unwilling to pay market wages.

2. The economy is booming to the point of overheating due to the covid stimulus bills being too large. Not ideal, but better than undershooting.

3. Nominal GDP and tax revenue are on

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Real estate broker revenue is growing faster than the rest of the economy.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REV5312TMSA

Nominal GDP up about half since 2014, RE broker rev more than doubled.

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I’d buy California PIMCO muni bond funds that yield 5.4% tax free. Not much risk holding both to maturity. For $200k worth that’s about an arbitrage gain of 4800 a year tax free for 10 years.

Now that was my plan last year that fell through because the overwhelmed IRS couldn’t find my corporate tax return that had been filed months prior. (The IRS is an understaffed mess, I filed my personal taxes and Cal corporate taxes the same day and they all arrived fine).

If I had done it then, I’d have cash locked in at 1.8 or 2% for 15 years invested at more like 4%, but would have suffered an unrealized loss as the funds dropped.

So certainly there is risk. But it seems pretty small overall. I think the muni tax adjusted yield spread over federal bonds is just insanely high and will eventually drop, especially as supply comes down, which is rapidly happening. The unleveraged and conservative vanguard long muni fund yields 2.8% free of state and federal taxes!

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Best nylon clothing source:

https://www.32degrees.com/

My lady loves their stuff too. We’ve done like 4 orders in the past year. I understand they may be sold in Costco but I don’t go there.

Do a general search for nylon to see their selection. Their other items have been good too, like cotton t shirts and ladies’ pajamas.

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Update: I am 80% nylon items now for underwear, shorts, and pants.

Nylon doesn’t work well for socks or shirts. Socks become too sweaty and don’t provide enough soft barrier between foot and shoe. Shirts are actually quite comfortable, but they have a nipple outlining effect. So they are reserved for bike rides and yard work, and I won’t buy more. The shirts aren’t even tight or thin, size L is kind of baggy but still has the effect.

I now have a third laundry basket for nylon clothing. It washes perfectly in cold water on quick cycle and dries in 15 minutes on the “very low – delicates” setting. Meanwhile cotton clothing needs 40 minutes on high to dry.

I hide this basket from my maid who normally does the laundry. I enjoy doing just this quick task every 10 days or so, and don’t feel like having a long conversation in Spanish with her about doing the quick cycle and low dry where I illustrate things on our wonderful but overly complicated Samsung washer and dryer. She seems stressed out lately and I don’t want to add to it.

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Wow that 10-year 2.75 sounds a ton better than 5% 30 year.

Maybe my plan for a cashout refi isn’t as dead as I thought.

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Greater Clairemont, PL, UC, northeast PB / mt soledad area.

Not sure I could live that far away, but possibly areas further east between the 8 and 52 like San Carlos and Tierrasanta.

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Lim: I subtract out from the potential mortgage payment the tax benefit of owning + the part of the monthly payment that pays down principal.

I am also assuming a refi at some point, and rent going up.

Putting these together, it is still a little cheaper to buy.

I am still early in the process. My parents might move in with me to a granny flat and provide childcare part time for my new baby. That increases my price range but also requires something larger.

I’d probably sell my house if there were no capital gains taxes and I could replicate my prop 13 valuation and 2.3% 15-year mortgage elsewhere. Since I am “stuck” owning it would become a rental.

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Moved.

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Agree I overstated tax benefit for a typical Cal buyer.

On the other hand, Chuck and Nancy hate the salt limit, and so do blue state suburban republicans, and once such Republican is likely to be the next house speaker, Kevin McCarthy.

So I think the current salt limit will likely be raised if not eliminated.

And of course for investors property tax is deductible. Maybe that irrationally is why investors are growing while homeownership isn’t?

As for rent control, as I said, even those of us exempt still have a market that is partly restrained by those who are limited. My 2/2 with parking in a free market might have gone to someone who instead is sticking with a smaller 2/1 with no parking because he’s legally protected from paying market rent increases.

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Neeta, I don’t agree with comparing the 4500 and 7500 figures.

1. A lot of the 7500 is tax deductible. With typical assumptions that is more like 5400 after tax.

2. Rents go up, mortgages typically go down from refinancing to lower rates or extending terms.

Rents as I noted are mooning but we don’t even know what market rents are anymore due to the statewide rent control. Even though it is full of exceptions, it still restrains their rents since exempt units have to compete with below market non-exempt.

Ultimately the law will only delay and smooth out rent increases. Non exempt units will raise rent by the max every year until they reach market rates.

It is also a wakeup call for soft landlords like myself of the risks involved in letting a rental get too far below market. No more “I can raise it later on if I meed to.” No telling when rent will be legally locked down. And there are definitely major landlords now subject to rent control who are far below market. E.g., Ocean Beach complexes with 1-bedrooms for $900-$1200 a month that would easily go for $1800-2200.

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SDR, are many flippers buying 10+ homes a year for cash? Probably a few, especially in cheap markets, but the ones I know use loans and don’t do that many.

I feel that flippers are becoming more prominent now partly because so few people are selling that flips are a bigger share of inventory, and also linger a tad longer by pricing at the high end. Maybe also because I am looking in greater Clairemont which has so many nice homes that need updating.

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There have long been obstacles to investing to US SFH rentals.

They are an amazing asset class, but hard to bulk buy in 20-50 million chunks like stocks and bonds, buy in specific amounts, buy for foreigners, etc.

Hedge funds and SFH rental REITs are working to fix this issue.

Think of all the German insurance companies and pension funds buying bunds that pay only 0.8% now. Their excess savings are better invested here. Instead of losing about 10% the past year as yields rose from negative to .8, they could have gained 30% appreciation plus another 10% on the dollar rising.

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Interestingly, the La Jolla premium over other central coastal areas for SFH rentals seems to be going down.

Looking at rent v buy, buying a 1.5m-ish house still seems to be the better option. Not the slam dunk of prior years, but still better.

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