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FormerOwner
ParticipantWow. I wish I could go to the mall right now to check it out – I’ve got some family obligations though. Who in their right mind would buy a house now?
May 2, 2007 at 12:30 PM in reply to: question about building new – is there also a land bubble? #51623ParticipantI agree with Cow_tipping. Land is very bubblicious right now, maybe even moreso than houses. Land prices has gone up enormously during this last upcycle. Land was being flipped in some cases, just like houses were.
ParticipantThe difference in labor costs and regulations between Texas and California must be enormous; hundreds of thousands, perhaps. Even if you already owned the land, you *still* couldn’t build a house like that for anywhere near that price in California – even in the less expensive inland areas. For example, let’s say the land value of that house in TX is low – 80K – that means the house itself has a market value of 400K. You could not have a contractor build that house anywhere in California for anywhere near 400K. Are labor costs and regulations adding hundreds of thousand to the prices all across Calif? Anyone have a breakdown of these costs?
ParticipantGuns don’t kill people – bullets do. If we must have the right to have guns, let’s at least outlaw bullets.
I don’t want to live in a world where everyone is packing a pistol. You can’t stop violence with violence. We need to stop selling guns and get the guns off the streets. Until then, things will continue to escalate.
I heard a joke on TV one time that really makes some sense. “What would the world be like without men? Everyone would be fat and happy and there would be no crime.” I think a lot of men are macho idiots that think you can stop violence with violence. I sometimes fall into this mode of thinking myself and that’s exactly why I wouldn’t want to have a gun.
Participanthow many of you here think that a 1900 sq ft home in Harveston will fall below $350k??
Considering the monthly rent for those houses vs. the property taxes/mello roos and HOA dues, low to mid 200’s is where the cost of owning approaches the cost of renting. Anything over that is betting on future housing price inflation.
Also, those houses were selling for 280K in 2003 – that wasn’t very long ago and that was already half-way into the boom phase of the real estate cycle.
Another 100K price drop and maybe I’d buy one myself!
ParticipantIn Temecula/Murrieta, this is happening ALL THE TIME! In addition, a lot of houses are being flipped at increasing prices in a down market. By being nosy and looking at information available online, I now believe that it is happening often enough to skew the median sale prices significantly. I’ve looked into a few neighborhoods and found “anomalies” in most of them. I’m going to stay out of the housing market until I am convinced that this has all blown over. It’s going to take a long time since such deals are still being funded. I think the remaining subprime lenders must be trying to bleed every last cent out of the housing market before they go bankrupt. The CEO’s will get their bonuses and the loan officers will get the commissions and they will keep on doing it until they get shut down.
Here are some examples. A friend of mine was asking how much her house was worth and I spotted some “anomalies” in that area by looking at the sales history on Zillow and the comps in the Press Enterprise. I don’t think either one of these houses would sell for anything over the mid 500’s in the current market. In fact, MOST of the comps for these are in the mid 500’s. Also, I find it odd that both of these sold for the exact same price!
39644 Tamarisk St, Murrieta (3139 sq ft tract home)
$730,000 02-07-2007
$548,000 05-01-200639599 Tamarisk St, Murrieta (2913 sq ft tract home)
$730,000 11-28-2006
$615,000 03-31-2006
This one is currently on the market as a short sale for 600K, dead lawn and all. It will be interesting to sell how much it sells for – this time. AMAZING!Participanttemeculaguy,
I’ve lived in Temecula for a number of years and I agree with everything you said except for the jobs part. I think there are a lot of jobs being created in Temecula, but they’re mostly retail and the salaries aren’t enough to support any real estate purchases even if prices drop 50%. I don’t see that chaning anytime soon. I think Temecula needs a better transportation infrastructure and probably a university – then it could really become its own independent economy. Until then, it will remain largely a commuter suburb.
-FO
March 31, 2007 at 1:38 AM in reply to: Free gas for a year with the purchase of this house in Murrieta #48827ParticipantI found another listing in the same area with the same free gas deal, same realtor. Can someone with MLS access check this out and see what the scoop is. Inquiring minds want to know:
March 31, 2007 at 1:06 AM in reply to: Free gas for a year with the purchase of this house in Murrieta #48825ParticipantWow. Thanks for the info, TemekuT. If I were into shorting stocks, I think Security National Mortgage’s parent company (SNFCA) would be a good candidate.
ParticipantSell now! The sooner the better. Once the spring selling season is over things will probably get worse. The odds are stacked against you if you don’t sell, especially the way your place is financed. Don’t go down with the ship.
March 30, 2007 at 10:47 PM in reply to: Free gas for a year with the purchase of this house in Murrieta #48810ParticipantHere’s a bank repo on the same street, same model, for $223,000 less! This one isn’t listing like the Titanic either! Even at $456,000 it’s still too high. As the Joker said in Batman “This town needs an enema!”
ParticipantYes, I noticed the fonts are different now and, in some respects, it’s a little easier to navigate. I haven’t noticed anything not working except that there are a number of double listings in there – the same MLS listing appearing 2X in Zip Realty.
ParticipantI’ve looked at some of those 1900 sf Harveston rentals as well. I really like them but, as far as buying one, the property taxes and HOA’s there are VERY high. When I do the math, I figure that it wouldn’t make sense for me to pay anything over the mid 200’s for one of those. I think they were selling for 280K when the first phase came out in 2003 so that tells you something. My gut feeling is that the market will over-correct big time and you will be able to pick one up (fully upgraded) in the low 200’s if you’re patient. If gas prices keep jumping up no one will want to buy or rent in Temecula anyway since most people would have to commute very far to work – that would support the downside over-correction even more.
There are a lot of “investors” that are renting out the houses in Harvestion and every one of them is renting at a huge loss. How long can that go on? It’s not even that easy to find a renter. My friend called about one of the rentals that was $1800/month and the lady pretty much said she’d take $1600/month two minutes into the conversation.
If it were me, I’d just keep renting and wait it out. I wouldn’t insult the owner with a low-ball (but sensible) offer just yet.
There’s another reason to wait. If the foreclosure situation gets really bad the character of the neighborhood might change and you might not want to live there anymore. The people that buy at the bottom may not be people you want to live next door to. I’m going to wait it out at least 3 more years before doing anything. I can picture the Inland Empire having a lot of Section 8 rentals once prices get low enough.
ParticipantI see both sides of this argument. A lot of people born in the 30’s and 40’s that I can think of have saved way more than enough money to retire comfortably. They worked during some pretty prosperous times and a lot of them made big money on their investments too. Plus, those born in the 30’s (like my parents) have a depression-era work and savings ethic that made them always sock money away for a rainy day, sometimes a lot more than they really need.
HOWEVER, a lot of the people born in the 50’s and later are way UNDER-SAVING and will not be able to retire or will have to work until they are very old. I don’t think this is necessarly a horrible thing except that, in our society, older people tend to get laid off during economic downturns.
So, I think some generations did oversave but the younger generations are definitely under-saving.
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