[faterikcartman]

[quote=CA renter]
The bolded part of your post is very important here, IMHO. This is exactly what I was referring to in my response to sdr — when interest rates are this low for this long, savers/cash holders will be MUCH more willing to part with their money than in a higher rate environment. Everyone who is throwing money around today is making a bet that interest rates will stay low for the duration, and/or are betting on inflation. I honestly see both sides of the inflation/deflation debate, and have always been conflicted about it. Right now, our position is entirely unhedged in favor of deflation (all cash), but I’d be lying if I said it doesn’t worry me.[/quote]

We are sitting on mostly all cash positions now as well but will almost certainly put it a huge chunk of it in a high-end home with the balance financed with a low interest loan within the next 12 months. We want to do that while the dollars are still worth something tangible and will then pay back the loan with inflated dollars in the coming years — a strategy which I imagine the government will be pursuing as well. Despite DeadZone’s pessimism about real estate values, I still see that as a more prudent play at this time than sitting on cash long term, or, heaven forbid, the stock market. I am talking about $2M and up properties, however, rather than the ones focused on here.

While making the purely economic play sounds great on paper, it often doesn’t mesh with real life — and the opinions of your spouse. I’m reminded of Dr. Evil in “Austin Powers” when he complains “I didn’t spend six years in evil medical school not to be called doctor!” My point being that many of us busted our backsides for years. Stayed in and studied whilst other kids partied. Worked weekends while coworkers went skiing. Took risks and went for ownership while others kept the steady paycheck.

At some point you look in the mirror, and the calendar, and realize you can’t keep waiting for everything to be perfect (trying to time the market). And your spouse asks if not now, when we’re old and grey? And you realize you’re not getting any younger, and if you don’t get that dream house in the dream neighbourhood now, you never will. And if you’re not going to get it, what the hell was the point of working so hard all these years?

This may seem as a bit of an aside here, but I wanted to highlight that there are factors that are hard to account for looking at published metrics, but may affect a broad demographic.

Whether we earned it, inherited it from aging boomers, got lucky with stock options, or turning over appreciated real estate, a lot of us have cash, the US government seems to be hell bent on destroying the most successful *market* economy in history, traditional investments are looking scarier than $%@!, and real estate looks like a good place to park it.

And don’t bother telling me about how the projected returns on real estate look like crap vis-a-vis other vehicles. I’m not talking about people looking for great returns. I’m talking about people anticipating potential disaster who want to preserve capital until they figure out which way the wind is going to blow.

You can, of course, argue that there is still a risk of depreciation. True, but at some point you’ve gotta nut up. Cut bait or fish. Buy right, and I’m betting I do okay. I’ve seen people hurt a lot worse than losing 10-20% on a house.

So that “may” explain why money keeps popping up for $1M plus homes. And yes, I understand I may be wrong and crazy. Whatever; I’m not hurting and don’t expect to be.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=CA renter]
The bolded part of your post is very important here, IMHO. This is exactly what I was referring to in my response to sdr — when interest rates are this low for this long, savers/cash holders will be MUCH more willing to part with their money than in a higher rate environment. Everyone who is throwing money around today is making a bet that interest rates will stay low for the duration, and/or are betting on inflation. I honestly see both sides of the inflation/deflation debate, and have always been conflicted about it. Right now, our position is entirely unhedged in favor of deflation (all cash), but I’d be lying if I said it doesn’t worry me.[/quote]

We are sitting on mostly all cash positions now as well but will almost certainly put it a huge chunk of it in a high-end home with the balance financed with a low interest loan within the next 12 months. We want to do that while the dollars are still worth something tangible and will then pay back the loan with inflated dollars in the coming years — a strategy which I imagine the government will be pursuing as well. Despite DeadZone’s pessimism about real estate values, I still see that as a more prudent play at this time than sitting on cash long term, or, heaven forbid, the stock market. I am talking about $2M and up properties, however, rather than the ones focused on here.

While making the purely economic play sounds great on paper, it often doesn’t mesh with real life — and the opinions of your spouse. I’m reminded of Dr. Evil in “Austin Powers” when he complains “I didn’t spend six years in evil medical school not to be called doctor!” My point being that many of us busted our backsides for years. Stayed in and studied whilst other kids partied. Worked weekends while coworkers went skiing. Took risks and went for ownership while others kept the steady paycheck.

At some point you look in the mirror, and the calendar, and realize you can’t keep waiting for everything to be perfect (trying to time the market). And your spouse asks if not now, when we’re old and grey? And you realize you’re not getting any younger, and if you don’t get that dream house in the dream neighbourhood now, you never will. And if you’re not going to get it, what the hell was the point of working so hard all these years?

This may seem as a bit of an aside here, but I wanted to highlight that there are factors that are hard to account for looking at published metrics, but may affect a broad demographic.

Whether we earned it, inherited it from aging boomers, got lucky with stock options, or turning over appreciated real estate, a lot of us have cash, the US government seems to be hell bent on destroying the most successful *market* economy in history, traditional investments are looking scarier than $%@!, and real estate looks like a good place to park it.

And don’t bother telling me about how the projected returns on real estate look like crap vis-a-vis other vehicles. I’m not talking about people looking for great returns. I’m talking about people anticipating potential disaster who want to preserve capital until they figure out which way the wind is going to blow.

You can, of course, argue that there is still a risk of depreciation. True, but at some point you’ve gotta nut up. Cut bait or fish. Buy right, and I’m betting I do okay. I’ve seen people hurt a lot worse than losing 10-20% on a house.

So that “may” explain why money keeps popping up for $1M plus homes. And yes, I understand I may be wrong and crazy. Whatever; I’m not hurting and don’t expect to be.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=CA renter]
The bolded part of your post is very important here, IMHO. This is exactly what I was referring to in my response to sdr — when interest rates are this low for this long, savers/cash holders will be MUCH more willing to part with their money than in a higher rate environment. Everyone who is throwing money around today is making a bet that interest rates will stay low for the duration, and/or are betting on inflation. I honestly see both sides of the inflation/deflation debate, and have always been conflicted about it. Right now, our position is entirely unhedged in favor of deflation (all cash), but I’d be lying if I said it doesn’t worry me.[/quote]

We are sitting on mostly all cash positions now as well but will almost certainly put it a huge chunk of it in a high-end home with the balance financed with a low interest loan within the next 12 months. We want to do that while the dollars are still worth something tangible and will then pay back the loan with inflated dollars in the coming years — a strategy which I imagine the government will be pursuing as well. Despite DeadZone’s pessimism about real estate values, I still see that as a more prudent play at this time than sitting on cash long term, or, heaven forbid, the stock market. I am talking about $2M and up properties, however, rather than the ones focused on here.

While making the purely economic play sounds great on paper, it often doesn’t mesh with real life — and the opinions of your spouse. I’m reminded of Dr. Evil in “Austin Powers” when he complains “I didn’t spend six years in evil medical school not to be called doctor!” My point being that many of us busted our backsides for years. Stayed in and studied whilst other kids partied. Worked weekends while coworkers went skiing. Took risks and went for ownership while others kept the steady paycheck.

At some point you look in the mirror, and the calendar, and realize you can’t keep waiting for everything to be perfect (trying to time the market). And your spouse asks if not now, when we’re old and grey? And you realize you’re not getting any younger, and if you don’t get that dream house in the dream neighbourhood now, you never will. And if you’re not going to get it, what the hell was the point of working so hard all these years?

This may seem as a bit of an aside here, but I wanted to highlight that there are factors that are hard to account for looking at published metrics, but may affect a broad demographic.

Whether we earned it, inherited it from aging boomers, got lucky with stock options, or turning over appreciated real estate, a lot of us have cash, the US government seems to be hell bent on destroying the most successful *market* economy in history, traditional investments are looking scarier than $%@!, and real estate looks like a good place to park it.

And don’t bother telling me about how the projected returns on real estate look like crap vis-a-vis other vehicles. I’m not talking about people looking for great returns. I’m talking about people anticipating potential disaster who want to preserve capital until they figure out which way the wind is going to blow.

You can, of course, argue that there is still a risk of depreciation. True, but at some point you’ve gotta nut up. Cut bait or fish. Buy right, and I’m betting I do okay. I’ve seen people hurt a lot worse than losing 10-20% on a house.

So that “may” explain why money keeps popping up for $1M plus homes. And yes, I understand I may be wrong and crazy. Whatever; I’m not hurting and don’t expect to be.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=CA renter]
The bolded part of your post is very important here, IMHO. This is exactly what I was referring to in my response to sdr — when interest rates are this low for this long, savers/cash holders will be MUCH more willing to part with their money than in a higher rate environment. Everyone who is throwing money around today is making a bet that interest rates will stay low for the duration, and/or are betting on inflation. I honestly see both sides of the inflation/deflation debate, and have always been conflicted about it. Right now, our position is entirely unhedged in favor of deflation (all cash), but I’d be lying if I said it doesn’t worry me.[/quote]

We are sitting on mostly all cash positions now as well but will almost certainly put it a huge chunk of it in a high-end home with the balance financed with a low interest loan within the next 12 months. We want to do that while the dollars are still worth something tangible and will then pay back the loan with inflated dollars in the coming years — a strategy which I imagine the government will be pursuing as well. Despite DeadZone’s pessimism about real estate values, I still see that as a more prudent play at this time than sitting on cash long term, or, heaven forbid, the stock market. I am talking about $2M and up properties, however, rather than the ones focused on here.

While making the purely economic play sounds great on paper, it often doesn’t mesh with real life — and the opinions of your spouse. I’m reminded of Dr. Evil in “Austin Powers” when he complains “I didn’t spend six years in evil medical school not to be called doctor!” My point being that many of us busted our backsides for years. Stayed in and studied whilst other kids partied. Worked weekends while coworkers went skiing. Took risks and went for ownership while others kept the steady paycheck.

At some point you look in the mirror, and the calendar, and realize you can’t keep waiting for everything to be perfect (trying to time the market). And your spouse asks if not now, when we’re old and grey? And you realize you’re not getting any younger, and if you don’t get that dream house in the dream neighbourhood now, you never will. And if you’re not going to get it, what the hell was the point of working so hard all these years?

This may seem as a bit of an aside here, but I wanted to highlight that there are factors that are hard to account for looking at published metrics, but may affect a broad demographic.

Whether we earned it, inherited it from aging boomers, got lucky with stock options, or turning over appreciated real estate, a lot of us have cash, the US government seems to be hell bent on destroying the most successful *market* economy in history, traditional investments are looking scarier than $%@!, and real estate looks like a good place to park it.

And don’t bother telling me about how the projected returns on real estate look like crap vis-a-vis other vehicles. I’m not talking about people looking for great returns. I’m talking about people anticipating potential disaster who want to preserve capital until they figure out which way the wind is going to blow.

You can, of course, argue that there is still a risk of depreciation. True, but at some point you’ve gotta nut up. Cut bait or fish. Buy right, and I’m betting I do okay. I’ve seen people hurt a lot worse than losing 10-20% on a house.

So that “may” explain why money keeps popping up for $1M plus homes. And yes, I understand I may be wrong and crazy. Whatever; I’m not hurting and don’t expect to be.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=CA renter]
The bolded part of your post is very important here, IMHO. This is exactly what I was referring to in my response to sdr — when interest rates are this low for this long, savers/cash holders will be MUCH more willing to part with their money than in a higher rate environment. Everyone who is throwing money around today is making a bet that interest rates will stay low for the duration, and/or are betting on inflation. I honestly see both sides of the inflation/deflation debate, and have always been conflicted about it. Right now, our position is entirely unhedged in favor of deflation (all cash), but I’d be lying if I said it doesn’t worry me.[/quote]

We are sitting on mostly all cash positions now as well but will almost certainly put it a huge chunk of it in a high-end home with the balance financed with a low interest loan within the next 12 months. We want to do that while the dollars are still worth something tangible and will then pay back the loan with inflated dollars in the coming years — a strategy which I imagine the government will be pursuing as well. Despite DeadZone’s pessimism about real estate values, I still see that as a more prudent play at this time than sitting on cash long term, or, heaven forbid, the stock market. I am talking about $2M and up properties, however, rather than the ones focused on here.

While making the purely economic play sounds great on paper, it often doesn’t mesh with real life — and the opinions of your spouse. I’m reminded of Dr. Evil in “Austin Powers” when he complains “I didn’t spend six years in evil medical school not to be called doctor!” My point being that many of us busted our backsides for years. Stayed in and studied whilst other kids partied. Worked weekends while coworkers went skiing. Took risks and went for ownership while others kept the steady paycheck.

At some point you look in the mirror, and the calendar, and realize you can’t keep waiting for everything to be perfect (trying to time the market). And your spouse asks if not now, when we’re old and grey? And you realize you’re not getting any younger, and if you don’t get that dream house in the dream neighbourhood now, you never will. And if you’re not going to get it, what the hell was the point of working so hard all these years?

This may seem as a bit of an aside here, but I wanted to highlight that there are factors that are hard to account for looking at published metrics, but may affect a broad demographic.

Whether we earned it, inherited it from aging boomers, got lucky with stock options, or turning over appreciated real estate, a lot of us have cash, the US government seems to be hell bent on destroying the most successful *market* economy in history, traditional investments are looking scarier than $%@!, and real estate looks like a good place to park it.

And don’t bother telling me about how the projected returns on real estate look like crap vis-a-vis other vehicles. I’m not talking about people looking for great returns. I’m talking about people anticipating potential disaster who want to preserve capital until they figure out which way the wind is going to blow.

You can, of course, argue that there is still a risk of depreciation. True, but at some point you’ve gotta nut up. Cut bait or fish. Buy right, and I’m betting I do okay. I’ve seen people hurt a lot worse than losing 10-20% on a house.

So that “may” explain why money keeps popping up for $1M plus homes. And yes, I understand I may be wrong and crazy. Whatever; I’m not hurting and don’t expect to be.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=deadzone]Again you are falling into the same tired argument that SD high end is “insulated” because everyone wants to live here. That is horseshit because Coastal SD high end got hammered in previous RE recessions. Most notably mid-90s.

So in 1995 San Diego was not desirable but now it is more? There is nothing particularly better about living in SD now than in 1995, same weather, same beaches, same everything. Only difference is a downtown ballpark, BFD.[/quote]

Maybe you’re right. And I could be wrong about this too, but many people once thought lots in the Covenant in RSF were out in the sticks and not as desirable as they are today where prices have risen and, so far, held. What changed? Lots of things, and they are not always easily quantifiable, but it is now one of the most desirable and expensive areas in the country. And the only point I’m making here is that it is not 1995. It is not the same population, same tastes, income distribution, etc.

I concede you may be right, but I don’t think so. I think the desirability of certain areas is greater today and the best lots and houses in those areas don’t look to me like they’re going to take the big 40%-50% hit so many other areas have experienced in the state, and that many here thought would eventually hit the high end. As I said, time will tell.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=deadzone]Again you are falling into the same tired argument that SD high end is “insulated” because everyone wants to live here. That is horseshit because Coastal SD high end got hammered in previous RE recessions. Most notably mid-90s.

So in 1995 San Diego was not desirable but now it is more? There is nothing particularly better about living in SD now than in 1995, same weather, same beaches, same everything. Only difference is a downtown ballpark, BFD.[/quote]

Maybe you’re right. And I could be wrong about this too, but many people once thought lots in the Covenant in RSF were out in the sticks and not as desirable as they are today where prices have risen and, so far, held. What changed? Lots of things, and they are not always easily quantifiable, but it is now one of the most desirable and expensive areas in the country. And the only point I’m making here is that it is not 1995. It is not the same population, same tastes, income distribution, etc.

I concede you may be right, but I don’t think so. I think the desirability of certain areas is greater today and the best lots and houses in those areas don’t look to me like they’re going to take the big 40%-50% hit so many other areas have experienced in the state, and that many here thought would eventually hit the high end. As I said, time will tell.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=deadzone]Again you are falling into the same tired argument that SD high end is “insulated” because everyone wants to live here. That is horseshit because Coastal SD high end got hammered in previous RE recessions. Most notably mid-90s.

So in 1995 San Diego was not desirable but now it is more? There is nothing particularly better about living in SD now than in 1995, same weather, same beaches, same everything. Only difference is a downtown ballpark, BFD.[/quote]

Maybe you’re right. And I could be wrong about this too, but many people once thought lots in the Covenant in RSF were out in the sticks and not as desirable as they are today where prices have risen and, so far, held. What changed? Lots of things, and they are not always easily quantifiable, but it is now one of the most desirable and expensive areas in the country. And the only point I’m making here is that it is not 1995. It is not the same population, same tastes, income distribution, etc.

I concede you may be right, but I don’t think so. I think the desirability of certain areas is greater today and the best lots and houses in those areas don’t look to me like they’re going to take the big 40%-50% hit so many other areas have experienced in the state, and that many here thought would eventually hit the high end. As I said, time will tell.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=deadzone]Again you are falling into the same tired argument that SD high end is “insulated” because everyone wants to live here. That is horseshit because Coastal SD high end got hammered in previous RE recessions. Most notably mid-90s.

So in 1995 San Diego was not desirable but now it is more? There is nothing particularly better about living in SD now than in 1995, same weather, same beaches, same everything. Only difference is a downtown ballpark, BFD.[/quote]

Maybe you’re right. And I could be wrong about this too, but many people once thought lots in the Covenant in RSF were out in the sticks and not as desirable as they are today where prices have risen and, so far, held. What changed? Lots of things, and they are not always easily quantifiable, but it is now one of the most desirable and expensive areas in the country. And the only point I’m making here is that it is not 1995. It is not the same population, same tastes, income distribution, etc.

I concede you may be right, but I don’t think so. I think the desirability of certain areas is greater today and the best lots and houses in those areas don’t look to me like they’re going to take the big 40%-50% hit so many other areas have experienced in the state, and that many here thought would eventually hit the high end. As I said, time will tell.

[faterikcartman]

[quote=deadzone]Again you are falling into the same tired argument that SD high end is “insulated” because everyone wants to live here. That is horseshit because Coastal SD high end got hammered in previous RE recessions. Most notably mid-90s.

So in 1995 San Diego was not desirable but now it is more? There is nothing particularly better about living in SD now than in 1995, same weather, same beaches, same everything. Only difference is a downtown ballpark, BFD.[/quote]

Maybe you’re right. And I could be wrong about this too, but many people once thought lots in the Covenant in RSF were out in the sticks and not as desirable as they are today where prices have risen and, so far, held. What changed? Lots of things, and they are not always easily quantifiable, but it is now one of the most desirable and expensive areas in the country. And the only point I’m making here is that it is not 1995. It is not the same population, same tastes, income distribution, etc.

I concede you may be right, but I don’t think so. I think the desirability of certain areas is greater today and the best lots and houses in those areas don’t look to me like they’re going to take the big 40%-50% hit so many other areas have experienced in the state, and that many here thought would eventually hit the high end. As I said, time will tell.

[faterikcartman]

If I’ve read sdr’s recent comments correctly I think I’m with him.

High-end San Diego neighbourhoods are not like a nice area in the Suburbs of Detroit. There, if local industry takes a dive so do prices because no one that doesn’t work there, or is crazy, dreams “if only I could move to Detroit…”

In San Diego, people with money from all over the world travel here, research, and find it has the most temperate climate of any major city in the world. It is beautiful. You can surf, snow ski, and dune buggy, all in the same day. This is one of the premier places to live in the entire planet.

Thus, the high-end San Diego market is somewhat insulated from the vagaries of the economy. Not totally to be sure, but it isn’t so dependent on high wage earners from local industry that the metrics of other markets easily apply.

Less than perfect homes on less than perfect lots will probably come down even in the best regarded areas, but I don’t see the market crashing around properties without issues in the best parts of San Diego.

Moreover, some people with money feel compelled to put it in real estate now for a variety of economic reasons. And there are a lot of people with a lot of money in SoCal. We do pretty well for people who grew up with nothing but are hardly what we would consider “rich”. We do have rich friends however, and you probably wouldn’t be able to tell looking at them. And just in our little circle there must be at least ten couples with homes well over the $1,000,000 mark. Heck, I know two of the couples paid over $20,000,000 for their houses. These people are out there and even when they could live anywhere in the world, the choose southern California.

They seem to get that way, by the way, not by working for someone else. So don’t assume that just because a lot of people are losing their jobs that the high-end is necessarily hurting in the same way.

My opinion is worth no more than you’re paying for it to be sure, but time will tell who is right.

[faterikcartman]

If I’ve read sdr’s recent comments correctly I think I’m with him.

High-end San Diego neighbourhoods are not like a nice area in the Suburbs of Detroit. There, if local industry takes a dive so do prices because no one that doesn’t work there, or is crazy, dreams “if only I could move to Detroit…”

In San Diego, people with money from all over the world travel here, research, and find it has the most temperate climate of any major city in the world. It is beautiful. You can surf, snow ski, and dune buggy, all in the same day. This is one of the premier places to live in the entire planet.

Thus, the high-end San Diego market is somewhat insulated from the vagaries of the economy. Not totally to be sure, but it isn’t so dependent on high wage earners from local industry that the metrics of other markets easily apply.

Less than perfect homes on less than perfect lots will probably come down even in the best regarded areas, but I don’t see the market crashing around properties without issues in the best parts of San Diego.

Moreover, some people with money feel compelled to put it in real estate now for a variety of economic reasons. And there are a lot of people with a lot of money in SoCal. We do pretty well for people who grew up with nothing but are hardly what we would consider “rich”. We do have rich friends however, and you probably wouldn’t be able to tell looking at them. And just in our little circle there must be at least ten couples with homes well over the $1,000,000 mark. Heck, I know two of the couples paid over $20,000,000 for their houses. These people are out there and even when they could live anywhere in the world, the choose southern California.

They seem to get that way, by the way, not by working for someone else. So don’t assume that just because a lot of people are losing their jobs that the high-end is necessarily hurting in the same way.

My opinion is worth no more than you’re paying for it to be sure, but time will tell who is right.

[faterikcartman]

If I’ve read sdr’s recent comments correctly I think I’m with him.

High-end San Diego neighbourhoods are not like a nice area in the Suburbs of Detroit. There, if local industry takes a dive so do prices because no one that doesn’t work there, or is crazy, dreams “if only I could move to Detroit…”

In San Diego, people with money from all over the world travel here, research, and find it has the most temperate climate of any major city in the world. It is beautiful. You can surf, snow ski, and dune buggy, all in the same day. This is one of the premier places to live in the entire planet.

Thus, the high-end San Diego market is somewhat insulated from the vagaries of the economy. Not totally to be sure, but it isn’t so dependent on high wage earners from local industry that the metrics of other markets easily apply.

Less than perfect homes on less than perfect lots will probably come down even in the best regarded areas, but I don’t see the market crashing around properties without issues in the best parts of San Diego.

Moreover, some people with money feel compelled to put it in real estate now for a variety of economic reasons. And there are a lot of people with a lot of money in SoCal. We do pretty well for people who grew up with nothing but are hardly what we would consider “rich”. We do have rich friends however, and you probably wouldn’t be able to tell looking at them. And just in our little circle there must be at least ten couples with homes well over the $1,000,000 mark. Heck, I know two of the couples paid over $20,000,000 for their houses. These people are out there and even when they could live anywhere in the world, the choose southern California.

They seem to get that way, by the way, not by working for someone else. So don’t assume that just because a lot of people are losing their jobs that the high-end is necessarily hurting in the same way.

My opinion is worth no more than you’re paying for it to be sure, but time will tell who is right.

[faterikcartman]

If I’ve read sdr’s recent comments correctly I think I’m with him.

High-end San Diego neighbourhoods are not like a nice area in the Suburbs of Detroit. There, if local industry takes a dive so do prices because no one that doesn’t work there, or is crazy, dreams “if only I could move to Detroit…”

In San Diego, people with money from all over the world travel here, research, and find it has the most temperate climate of any major city in the world. It is beautiful. You can surf, snow ski, and dune buggy, all in the same day. This is one of the premier places to live in the entire planet.

Thus, the high-end San Diego market is somewhat insulated from the vagaries of the economy. Not totally to be sure, but it isn’t so dependent on high wage earners from local industry that the metrics of other markets easily apply.

Less than perfect homes on less than perfect lots will probably come down even in the best regarded areas, but I don’t see the market crashing around properties without issues in the best parts of San Diego.

Moreover, some people with money feel compelled to put it in real estate now for a variety of economic reasons. And there are a lot of people with a lot of money in SoCal. We do pretty well for people who grew up with nothing but are hardly what we would consider “rich”. We do have rich friends however, and you probably wouldn’t be able to tell looking at them. And just in our little circle there must be at least ten couples with homes well over the $1,000,000 mark. Heck, I know two of the couples paid over $20,000,000 for their houses. These people are out there and even when they could live anywhere in the world, the choose southern California.

They seem to get that way, by the way, not by working for someone else. So don’t assume that just because a lot of people are losing their jobs that the high-end is necessarily hurting in the same way.

My opinion is worth no more than you’re paying for it to be sure, but time will tell who is right.

[faterikcartman]

If I’ve read sdr’s recent comments correctly I think I’m with him.

High-end San Diego neighbourhoods are not like a nice area in the Suburbs of Detroit. There, if local industry takes a dive so do prices because no one that doesn’t work there, or is crazy, dreams “if only I could move to Detroit…”

In San Diego, people with money from all over the world travel here, research, and find it has the most temperate climate of any major city in the world. It is beautiful. You can surf, snow ski, and dune buggy, all in the same day. This is one of the premier places to live in the entire planet.

Thus, the high-end San Diego market is somewhat insulated from the vagaries of the economy. Not totally to be sure, but it isn’t so dependent on high wage earners from local industry that the metrics of other markets easily apply.

Less than perfect homes on less than perfect lots will probably come down even in the best regarded areas, but I don’t see the market crashing around properties without issues in the best parts of San Diego.

Moreover, some people with money feel compelled to put it in real estate now for a variety of economic reasons. And there are a lot of people with a lot of money in SoCal. We do pretty well for people who grew up with nothing but are hardly what we would consider “rich”. We do have rich friends however, and you probably wouldn’t be able to tell looking at them. And just in our little circle there must be at least ten couples with homes well over the $1,000,000 mark. Heck, I know two of the couples paid over $20,000,000 for their houses. These people are out there and even when they could live anywhere in the world, the choose southern California.

They seem to get that way, by the way, not by working for someone else. So don’t assume that just because a lot of people are losing their jobs that the high-end is necessarily hurting in the same way.

My opinion is worth no more than you’re paying for it to be sure, but time will tell who is right.

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