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Cow_tippingParticipant
I dont quite interpret it that way, though the Idiots at large do.
I look at it like this. For example.
I have a wife and am thinking of a baby. Now we may have another baby in the future after the first and we probably should think of a steady location with a neighborhood with other kids a yard and a school that is good etc.
I also dont quite know the work involved in buying a house and my discipline in keeping money aside and sending off payments is still in its infancy.
I would like to get a simple house that can hold the whole family without us elbowing each other everytime someone turns around and at the same time let me get used to the idea of debt service and give me time to bone up on my discipline.
It cannot have major problems because I cannot fix it being a new owner, it cannot be un an undesirable area being wife and family man, it cannot break the bank because wife may be unable to work a few years while making babies, it cannot be etc etc … what ever.
Ideally a starter home has to be inexpensive, trouble free, fit your family and in a good neighborhood.
Ergo a new vinyl box in a good area for a good price that you can afford with 1 income and heck if you get laid off, you still need to be able to cover it for a few months – works good.
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Cow_tipping.Cow_tippingParticipantConcrete price is another thing you should look at. As is bath fixtures and drywall etc.
I believe they all spiked right after Katrina atleast in the South east.
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Cow_tipping.Cow_tippingParticipantIts a waiters market.
The more you wait the more you save.
Its a buyers market at the bottom, and on the lower 1/2 of the rising price. The upper 1/2 of that curve and top are sellers markets, and the way down is a waiters market.
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Cow_tipping.January 9, 2007 at 8:42 AM in reply to: Pardee Homes Drops Mello Roos in new development in Moorpark (Ventura) #43008Cow_tippingParticipantMello roos typically is 30-50K. You have it financed just like your loan. The payments over 30 years total to 150K.
Just what I think.
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Cow_tipping.Cow_tippingParticipantThere doesn’t neccessarily a up tick in rentals. The basic idea is, every one bought houses to flip. They already live in one, probably pulled equity out and put in “investment” property. Those are now comming into the market as rentals. That is going to drive rents down, and people moving in from outside the area/country and people growing up and moving out of parents home are going to rent for years to come … that would eventually drive up rents and drive up prices on purchases too – eventually – 5-15 years for rents, and 10-20 years for purchases IMHO.
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Cow_tipping.January 6, 2007 at 10:32 PM in reply to: nesting young 4s Ranch experiences and puzzling questions #42866Cow_tippingParticipantForeclosures aren’t even the tip of the iceberg. Look for developments with a lot of, or even a few unbuilt lots. The developer will give up (or wanting to not shaft his old customers) and sell to another builder. Example. Shea built 50 houses in a 200 house development at ~100 a sqft and sold the rest to beazer a few years later. Then beazer put up $50 a sqft new houses right in the middle of them. Heck if we dont see a quid pro quo. You screw my old FB’s and I’ll screw yours between builders. That is when the fun begins. There is like a few dozen in charlotte that have had this happen, and a few dozen more I am thinking it will happen.
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Cow_tipping.Cow_tippingParticipantI know, that’s why I dont smoke. I only do cocaine and up. Nobody got me hooked to that, I did it myself. I know for sure.
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Cow_tipping.Cow_tippingParticipantOh yea … I forgot, Enjoy the petrochemical mix we call cheer wine. Last year evidently with gas prices surging, Cheer wine also went up in $$$. Then they had to lower the octane rating of it. Then petro express helped out and they all settled down again. B of A wanted to loan them an IO reverse amortising loan to buy the chemicals from russia. God bless the local companies.
Welcome to charlotte. Enjoy the local flavor. Which I am guessing is lead which flows like a river through charlotte and is called sugaw creek.
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Cow_tipping.Cow_tippingParticipantOh also, all of this is IMHO, OK NSHO.
Follow at your own peril, or ignore at your own peril … how is that for on the fence …
My take is that, 3000 sqft Mcshitbox wont cost under 125K. I bought for 150 in 2003. Inflation would ahve adjusted to 150K – maybe. So today’s price of Mcshitbox = 175. That seems to be holding tight. Now interspersed with these Mcshitboxes, are other builders Mcshitboxes albeit built 1 stick at a time and at design time they’ll let you move walls and windows all you want … and yea they have granite counters and what ever – fluff, and those cost say 200. They want to sell you for 400. OK I expect that to crash to 220 (cost + 10%) … of course that may stay strong and mine might crash to 100 like WTF … but my hope is that, that is not likely, and my Mcshitbox is better than theirs cos atleast its not shit laced with granite and hence more $$$ … who knows … Ergo my conclusion that I am so special (OK atleast I have some research proving it) and they aren’t.
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Cow_tipping.Cow_tippingParticipantSurrounding uptown is definetly a bubble, but not the real bubble. I’d make the case that being walking distance form restaurants, bars, and work is a great thing. In 3 years, I could ahve walked everywhere and never driven the car so much if I did live uptown. I’d also make a case for the old neighborhoods (dilworth, cotswold etc – the real south charlotte). The useless bubble is in south OF charlotte. Ballantyne, and that whole area surrounding it. Its within 5 miles of SC (wholly great place to live BTW) and traffic to there is a bitch, its just insane. A few years ago you could not find anything over 250K there (bad enough I said) now its 400+.
The flip side is – north charlotte or University area is now teeming with builders that are in the 400’s right next to neighborhoods in the 150’s. I live in one of them 150’s and Weiland is putting up olmstead – 400K+ … we are target fixated with 485. Where it goes, the bubble grows. 485 was in ballantyne for 5-6 years and its bubbled up. That is my ghetto take. Yea we cant see past the next week, and we cant see beyond last week. 485 plans have been around for 5-8 years. No one thought of it till now looks like. You can still get some tract developments (centex larkhaven is a clone of mine BTW) under $60-65 a sqft. Who knows what may happen next. Check out their nautilus. Love it, I live in one. Warranty service from centex is designed to make you stop calling them on warranties. So put the screws to them before close and make them fix it and fix it right. They know how, they just wont unless you put some pressure on them.
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Cow_tipping.Cow_tippingParticipantDefinetly made us debt slaves and bubbled up the house.
Glad I dont believe in debt. Or maybe I should … I dunno … watching prices drop like a rock might make me stay the course and “We aint talking no 3% here (poison apple) or 5% there (missing rib) you hear … ” to quote one of the greatest thinkers of our generation (Slash of Guns and Roses circa 1994 when he was on some good cocaine probably).
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Cow_tipping.Cow_tippingParticipantOne more of those good intentioned but self destructing bits of advice.
If they all sell, sales prices will plummet. Remember they have to sell it, and it has to be priced to sell. If it takes 6 months for them all to sell, prices will drop like a rock in that time and entirely cave in the market. then they all will have to rent, and that will … guess what … drive up the rents … a lot. The first of the sellers will be the first of the renters too and will make like bandits till their landlord starts reading the news paper (now isn’t he supposed to sell as well ??? OK lets say its an apartment complex and converting to condos to sell isn’t an option) … and there goes that savings. This is identical to the “everyone needs to buy a house now because you are gettting equite and interest rates are so low” idea from the NAR.
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Cow_tipping.January 5, 2007 at 10:59 AM in reply to: Shoddy Construction of 2000-2005 Housing Boom: Beware of National Builders #42765Cow_tippingParticipantConstruction Attorney,
I live in NC not in CA. and own a 4 year old centex house. Well out of warranty. However I believe I have some structural defects. Nails on the second floor holding the boards to the joists instead of screws. Floor creaks very very very loudly when you walk on it. I am wondering if it is a worthwhile endeavor to initiate legal proceedings against them for that. Last year they replaced a similar problem in my neighbors house. They also were out of warranty. 3 year old house at that time.
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Cow_tipping.Cow_tippingParticipantI think the defaulters get a free ride atleast for 6-12 months. If you are one of those that OwnIt sold earlier and that sale stuck you’re out of luck but if they were still holding on to it you’re good. IMHO.
However B of A owns a part of OwnIt. maybe they would start turning the screws.
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