[carlsbadworker]

According to Jeremy Grantham, S&P 500 at 2300 will be the bubble territorial and we are not there yet.

So it is hard to say that it will correct just from this level given the Chinese central banks and other FED equivalent around the world are continuing pumping money into the market to prolong the unsustainable appetite for everything from raw material to iPhone in the global market. Just my personal view.

Also, the market overall is pretty cautious at the moment. It is priced high only because the unbelievable amount of cash that are floating around. That’s why you got both S&P 500 reaching new high and the bond market yield testing new low at the same time.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=flu]Maybe the german autobahn, maybe Switzerland in the winter for some skiing, but how’s that different from say Jackson Hole or Whistler?[/quote]

It’s the culture part. How people live differently around the world and taste different kinds of food. (Ethnic food in US is always Americanized)

[quote=flu]And that it’s probably a good thing that I’m not retired, because I would be bored out of my mind.[/quote]

I agree here. I couldn’t imagine retirement. What is that I want to do years from now that is so important that I shouldn’t do it today?

[carlsbadworker]

First of all, there is no need to fear. You seem like a person with good financial discipline so that will make your financial outlook much better than the general public. The echo bubble is frustrating, yes. But don’t compare it with 4 years ago, because should’ve/could’ve is irrelevant. And you weren’t in a position to buy 4 years ago anyway.

Second, I actually think $250K down for a $400K house is a bad idea…no matter how low you want the payment to be. The real risk for home purchasing is liquidity that many people drained out their savings with the down payment that makes them less well prepared for the future uncertainty. I wouldn’t invest bulk of your saving on an investment vehicle that only carries less than 3.5% return (not counting mortgage interest deduction). I would take conventional 80% loan and save the money for emergency fund and future investment opportunity (although there are depressingly few such opportunities right now)

Third, the last few years have been very challenging to the long-term value based investment. Don’t lose hope just yet. The basic driver for long-term value working historically has been the excessive volatility of asset prices relative to their underlying fundamental cash flows, and recent history does not show any evidence of that changing. Every bubble falls back to trend line and there has been no exception. Remember that you are paid to rent if your rents provides better cashflow compared to owning. Historically, the cashflow from real estate investment isn’t necessarily better than any other investment vehicle (e.g. index fund), it sounds better to a lot of people only because they leveraged with home purchase.

Lastly, Temecula is a wonderful city. Check it out sometime.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=moneymaker]Looks like I’m going to get .875% savings with a refi, hopefully it won’t be too painful.[/quote]

How can you guys all save that much, the rate hasn’t dropped that much yet.

http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/graph/

What’s the big Brexit rate drop that that I do not yet see?

[carlsbadworker]

flu, I believe in this case, your interests would be similar to borrowing $65 only, but your monthly payment (calculated based on $150K) will be x2.3 higher than if you only borrow $65k. So you will pay off much faster than whatever the loan term.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=flu]It will be interesting to see how today unfolds…I doesn’t look that bad in the U.S. markets.

Well, I can’t stay glued to the monitor today because I’m off to pick up some legoland passes….Going to take today off with the kid and try out the waterpark there and a few other things ….Nice relaxing start of a relaxing weekend. It’s probably the first time in a long time when the market tanks I’m not too concerned about it.

Have a nice weekend folks.[/quote]

It is a very nice day for legoland today. I dropped my wife and kids there this morning. I don’t think there is going to be a lot of policy responses to this, so market could drop further purely because it was way too high to begin with.

It doesn’t look like Yellen will do anything now for the rest of the year, she might as well go to legoland too.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=flu]And maybe if people bought more real estate, they don’t need to deal with commute traffic. Because maybe in the future they don’t need to go to work during commute hours. It’s sure one of my goals in the future.[/quote]

That’s not very realistic unless you leverage like crazy. Rental market is a commodity service market so the long-term return is low. People are betting on the appreciation part of the return for Temecula Valley, I do too but I am not going to leverage like crazy.

There are certainly many risks. The Temecula Valley has built great community and attracted a highly educated demographics profile. But it hasn’t been able to turn that asset into an employment center for professional jobs. There are overall underlying economic trend here: most companies are no longer competing sorely on costs in U.S. They compete with market differentiation, and that bode well for city centers…where you get people to interact more by chance and suburban is losing out its attractiveness, therefore Temecula might not follow the path of old suburban areas, most notably the orange county . But on the other side, there is no great return without risks…and buying at bottom prices a few years ago is like head you win, tail you don’t lose. (I bought two and both appreciated 50%, so in theory, I can have one paid-off house if I want…and therefore doesn’t matter where the price goes)

[carlsbadworker]

I am less than one mile from a sprouts. In fact, we often walk over there to get some exercise.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=temeculaguy]Sure they had to pay $12 a day to park at LAX on their last 30 day trip to Europe. That’s $360!![/quote]

Haven’t they heard about uber? We took uber from Temecula to LAX once, and it costs $125 one-way with coupon. It was very nice ride and you are dropped at the terminal. Cheaper and more convenient.

[carlsbadworker]

welcome back, TG.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=spdrun]It’s not all about costs. It’s about being in a place that’s not devoid of culture and serendipity.[/quote]

That’s the cost of missing out to me.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Friends who come into town would rather get a hotel room than visit them. They are the ones driving and regretting.[/quote]

The trends are definitely people are moving back to the cities, partly because people are delaying family formation and partly because the crime rate has been dropping in the cities…and maybe there are other reasons.

But it is all about costs. Driving is a big cost today…but who knows, maybe self-driving car is just around the corner. I won’t bet on it though.

[carlsbadworker]

Right, I think flu has a formula converting salary to hourly pay but I forgot about the exact number he used.

[carlsbadworker]

Slightly off topic, so if Android Dev gets paid between $110-150K, would $75/hour a good rate for experienced freelancer mobile developers based in SoCal? (Assume short project without tight deadline, no work for design is needed with invision prototype ready)

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=paramount]
Unfortunately the city now prohibits feeding the ducks…[/quote]

I really hate that. Couldn’t they install a duck food vending machine like the zoo does? They can make up the cleaning fees. Not able to feed the duck is too kids/family unfriendly for a town like Temecula.

[Author]

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