[carlsbadworker]

There is no doubt a buying frenzy going on around Temecula. The monthly sale volume has more than doubled (any almost tripled) from the end of last year low. It is undoubtfully justified by one market fundamental: affordability. Between earlier this year till now, I believe at least 15%-20% more household there now qualify for median housing price. So it is unsurprising to see a sale volume equals to just 1% of the total household each month.
But going forward, REO has been increasing at an astonishing rate of 15% per month lately (a number 50% higher than the current high monthly sale volume). Based on stats from foreclosure radar, it will climb from this level for a while. With tightening lending standard, it is hard to see the buyers continuously be able to swallow the incoming REO inventory. However, if the government or the banking industry keeps on giving easy money out, it is hard to say that we might not see RE price bottom soon in Temecula.
To sum it up, we have buying frenzy in Temecula but we also have a selling frenzy (primarily REO) in Temecula as well. We know for certain that the selling frenzy will not ease for months ahead, but the buying side is a lot more uncertain. I think the worst case is the price will be sideline or increase a little bit due to the continuous buying frenzy. My money however would be betting on some cooling from buyers coming this fall.

[carlsbadworker]

There is no doubt a buying frenzy going on around Temecula. The monthly sale volume has more than doubled (any almost tripled) from the end of last year low. It is undoubtfully justified by one market fundamental: affordability. Between earlier this year till now, I believe at least 15%-20% more household there now qualify for median housing price. So it is unsurprising to see a sale volume equals to just 1% of the total household each month.
But going forward, REO has been increasing at an astonishing rate of 15% per month lately (a number 50% higher than the current high monthly sale volume). Based on stats from foreclosure radar, it will climb from this level for a while. With tightening lending standard, it is hard to see the buyers continuously be able to swallow the incoming REO inventory. However, if the government or the banking industry keeps on giving easy money out, it is hard to say that we might not see RE price bottom soon in Temecula.
To sum it up, we have buying frenzy in Temecula but we also have a selling frenzy (primarily REO) in Temecula as well. We know for certain that the selling frenzy will not ease for months ahead, but the buying side is a lot more uncertain. I think the worst case is the price will be sideline or increase a little bit due to the continuous buying frenzy. My money however would be betting on some cooling from buyers coming this fall.

[carlsbadworker]

There is no doubt a buying frenzy going on around Temecula. The monthly sale volume has more than doubled (any almost tripled) from the end of last year low. It is undoubtfully justified by one market fundamental: affordability. Between earlier this year till now, I believe at least 15%-20% more household there now qualify for median housing price. So it is unsurprising to see a sale volume equals to just 1% of the total household each month.
But going forward, REO has been increasing at an astonishing rate of 15% per month lately (a number 50% higher than the current high monthly sale volume). Based on stats from foreclosure radar, it will climb from this level for a while. With tightening lending standard, it is hard to see the buyers continuously be able to swallow the incoming REO inventory. However, if the government or the banking industry keeps on giving easy money out, it is hard to say that we might not see RE price bottom soon in Temecula.
To sum it up, we have buying frenzy in Temecula but we also have a selling frenzy (primarily REO) in Temecula as well. We know for certain that the selling frenzy will not ease for months ahead, but the buying side is a lot more uncertain. I think the worst case is the price will be sideline or increase a little bit due to the continuous buying frenzy. My money however would be betting on some cooling from buyers coming this fall.

[carlsbadworker]

There is no doubt a buying frenzy going on around Temecula. The monthly sale volume has more than doubled (any almost tripled) from the end of last year low. It is undoubtfully justified by one market fundamental: affordability. Between earlier this year till now, I believe at least 15%-20% more household there now qualify for median housing price. So it is unsurprising to see a sale volume equals to just 1% of the total household each month.
But going forward, REO has been increasing at an astonishing rate of 15% per month lately (a number 50% higher than the current high monthly sale volume). Based on stats from foreclosure radar, it will climb from this level for a while. With tightening lending standard, it is hard to see the buyers continuously be able to swallow the incoming REO inventory. However, if the government or the banking industry keeps on giving easy money out, it is hard to say that we might not see RE price bottom soon in Temecula.
To sum it up, we have buying frenzy in Temecula but we also have a selling frenzy (primarily REO) in Temecula as well. We know for certain that the selling frenzy will not ease for months ahead, but the buying side is a lot more uncertain. I think the worst case is the price will be sideline or increase a little bit due to the continuous buying frenzy. My money however would be betting on some cooling from buyers coming this fall.

[carlsbadworker]

There is no doubt a buying frenzy going on around Temecula. The monthly sale volume has more than doubled (any almost tripled) from the end of last year low. It is undoubtfully justified by one market fundamental: affordability. Between earlier this year till now, I believe at least 15%-20% more household there now qualify for median housing price. So it is unsurprising to see a sale volume equals to just 1% of the total household each month.
But going forward, REO has been increasing at an astonishing rate of 15% per month lately (a number 50% higher than the current high monthly sale volume). Based on stats from foreclosure radar, it will climb from this level for a while. With tightening lending standard, it is hard to see the buyers continuously be able to swallow the incoming REO inventory. However, if the government or the banking industry keeps on giving easy money out, it is hard to say that we might not see RE price bottom soon in Temecula.
To sum it up, we have buying frenzy in Temecula but we also have a selling frenzy (primarily REO) in Temecula as well. We know for certain that the selling frenzy will not ease for months ahead, but the buying side is a lot more uncertain. I think the worst case is the price will be sideline or increase a little bit due to the continuous buying frenzy. My money however would be betting on some cooling from buyers coming this fall.

[carlsbadworker]

Sorry for hijacking the thread. But where do you guys think the Temecula price is headed. I heard some realtor says that $100/sqft is roughly the cost to build a house so that’s the rock-bottom price. I believe that is probably true for new homes, but existing homes should be 10-15% lower than that. Is that possible, excluding the scenario of $10/gallon gas?

[carlsbadworker]

Sorry for hijacking the thread. But where do you guys think the Temecula price is headed. I heard some realtor says that $100/sqft is roughly the cost to build a house so that’s the rock-bottom price. I believe that is probably true for new homes, but existing homes should be 10-15% lower than that. Is that possible, excluding the scenario of $10/gallon gas?

[carlsbadworker]

Sorry for hijacking the thread. But where do you guys think the Temecula price is headed. I heard some realtor says that $100/sqft is roughly the cost to build a house so that’s the rock-bottom price. I believe that is probably true for new homes, but existing homes should be 10-15% lower than that. Is that possible, excluding the scenario of $10/gallon gas?

[carlsbadworker]

Sorry for hijacking the thread. But where do you guys think the Temecula price is headed. I heard some realtor says that $100/sqft is roughly the cost to build a house so that’s the rock-bottom price. I believe that is probably true for new homes, but existing homes should be 10-15% lower than that. Is that possible, excluding the scenario of $10/gallon gas?

[carlsbadworker]

Sorry for hijacking the thread. But where do you guys think the Temecula price is headed. I heard some realtor says that $100/sqft is roughly the cost to build a house so that’s the rock-bottom price. I believe that is probably true for new homes, but existing homes should be 10-15% lower than that. Is that possible, excluding the scenario of $10/gallon gas?

[carlsbadworker]

SD Realtor, here is the reasoning behind my prognostication:
1. I see steep price drop highly correlated with the amount of foreclosure homes in the market (as banks always cut price relentlessly). We have a spike in foreclosure activities in earlier this year, that is when we see 3%+ price drop each month in SD real estate price.
2. In May-June, we reached a psychological threshold of 30% price drop from the peak, as a result, we see a lot of “investors” jump in but I believe at the same time we should be seeing people walking away from their houses since they are under water so much.
3. It takes 5 months for homeowner to stop payment and the NOD are being filed against them, then 1-4 months for the house to go into foreclosure pool. That is why I think toward the end of the year, we will see 3%+ price drop every single month all over again.

[carlsbadworker]

SD Realtor, here is the reasoning behind my prognostication:
1. I see steep price drop highly correlated with the amount of foreclosure homes in the market (as banks always cut price relentlessly). We have a spike in foreclosure activities in earlier this year, that is when we see 3%+ price drop each month in SD real estate price.
2. In May-June, we reached a psychological threshold of 30% price drop from the peak, as a result, we see a lot of “investors” jump in but I believe at the same time we should be seeing people walking away from their houses since they are under water so much.
3. It takes 5 months for homeowner to stop payment and the NOD are being filed against them, then 1-4 months for the house to go into foreclosure pool. That is why I think toward the end of the year, we will see 3%+ price drop every single month all over again.

[carlsbadworker]

SD Realtor, here is the reasoning behind my prognostication:
1. I see steep price drop highly correlated with the amount of foreclosure homes in the market (as banks always cut price relentlessly). We have a spike in foreclosure activities in earlier this year, that is when we see 3%+ price drop each month in SD real estate price.
2. In May-June, we reached a psychological threshold of 30% price drop from the peak, as a result, we see a lot of “investors” jump in but I believe at the same time we should be seeing people walking away from their houses since they are under water so much.
3. It takes 5 months for homeowner to stop payment and the NOD are being filed against them, then 1-4 months for the house to go into foreclosure pool. That is why I think toward the end of the year, we will see 3%+ price drop every single month all over again.

[carlsbadworker]

SD Realtor, here is the reasoning behind my prognostication:
1. I see steep price drop highly correlated with the amount of foreclosure homes in the market (as banks always cut price relentlessly). We have a spike in foreclosure activities in earlier this year, that is when we see 3%+ price drop each month in SD real estate price.
2. In May-June, we reached a psychological threshold of 30% price drop from the peak, as a result, we see a lot of “investors” jump in but I believe at the same time we should be seeing people walking away from their houses since they are under water so much.
3. It takes 5 months for homeowner to stop payment and the NOD are being filed against them, then 1-4 months for the house to go into foreclosure pool. That is why I think toward the end of the year, we will see 3%+ price drop every single month all over again.

[carlsbadworker]

SD Realtor, here is the reasoning behind my prognostication:
1. I see steep price drop highly correlated with the amount of foreclosure homes in the market (as banks always cut price relentlessly). We have a spike in foreclosure activities in earlier this year, that is when we see 3%+ price drop each month in SD real estate price.
2. In May-June, we reached a psychological threshold of 30% price drop from the peak, as a result, we see a lot of “investors” jump in but I believe at the same time we should be seeing people walking away from their houses since they are under water so much.
3. It takes 5 months for homeowner to stop payment and the NOD are being filed against them, then 1-4 months for the house to go into foreclosure pool. That is why I think toward the end of the year, we will see 3%+ price drop every single month all over again.

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