[CA renter]

IMHO, the reason for the “doom and gloom” is the accelerated decline in the standard of living in the U.S.

Don’t be fooled by the SUVs and McMansions. These are the result of a credit market that was allowed to run wild (the main culprit behind most of our problems, IMO). This has only increased debt loads, it has not increased wealth for most people.

Forty years ago, more people had job security, employer-paid healthcare and defined-benefit pension plans. They might not have made tons of money, but they took pride in themselves and their jobs — they were part of their company’s family, and employees sacrificed (took pay cuts and even worked for free when necessary) when times were bad, with the implicit/explicit expectation that employers would sacrifice (reward employees) when times were good. They knew that their employer’s strength was their strength. Employers knew the company was only as good as its employees.

Families could buy a modest house (even in the “good” parts of town!) and car, have medical care and a pension, take an annual vacation, etc. on one salary — and they still saved.

Humans have a basic need for belonging to something greater than themselves, and they have a strong need for security. When you take these things away, people can become panicked and they begin taking more risks and hoarding more — a natural survival instinct. The well-being of the individual trumps the well-being of society, and most people end up losing because the slightest glitch in the best-laid plans can cause a person to lose everything he/she’s worked and saved for all their lives.

This will be controversial, but I also believe the “multi-cultural” push is largely responsible for the apathy and lack of patriotism over the past couple of decades. We don’t have anything to belong to anymore — nothing to support or cheer for. No unity (united we stand, divided we fall), and it shows. That’s not to say we can’t have immigrants (my mother was an immigrant), but that we need to have a common culture as Americans. Yes, we need to assimilate into the existing culture and work together to build something greater than ourselves.

[CA renter]

We did a basic open house run today, just to see how the action is compared to other weekends and months.

It looks to me like things **might** be slowing down a bit. I still think February was HOT as far as buyer traffic was concerned, but March & April saw the pendings & sales really rise (from the few No. County areas we track).

OTOH, it looks like new listings aren’t coming on quite as quickly as they could. Most of the homes that were active listings in February have sold — particularly anything even resembling a good deal.

BTW, there might be a reason we are seeing banks sitting on empty houses. Will post on a fresh thread later…

[CA renter]

We did a basic open house run today, just to see how the action is compared to other weekends and months.

It looks to me like things **might** be slowing down a bit. I still think February was HOT as far as buyer traffic was concerned, but March & April saw the pendings & sales really rise (from the few No. County areas we track).

OTOH, it looks like new listings aren’t coming on quite as quickly as they could. Most of the homes that were active listings in February have sold — particularly anything even resembling a good deal.

BTW, there might be a reason we are seeing banks sitting on empty houses. Will post on a fresh thread later…

[CA renter]

We did a basic open house run today, just to see how the action is compared to other weekends and months.

It looks to me like things **might** be slowing down a bit. I still think February was HOT as far as buyer traffic was concerned, but March & April saw the pendings & sales really rise (from the few No. County areas we track).

OTOH, it looks like new listings aren’t coming on quite as quickly as they could. Most of the homes that were active listings in February have sold — particularly anything even resembling a good deal.

BTW, there might be a reason we are seeing banks sitting on empty houses. Will post on a fresh thread later…

[CA renter]

We did a basic open house run today, just to see how the action is compared to other weekends and months.

It looks to me like things **might** be slowing down a bit. I still think February was HOT as far as buyer traffic was concerned, but March & April saw the pendings & sales really rise (from the few No. County areas we track).

OTOH, it looks like new listings aren’t coming on quite as quickly as they could. Most of the homes that were active listings in February have sold — particularly anything even resembling a good deal.

BTW, there might be a reason we are seeing banks sitting on empty houses. Will post on a fresh thread later…

[CA renter]

We did a basic open house run today, just to see how the action is compared to other weekends and months.

It looks to me like things **might** be slowing down a bit. I still think February was HOT as far as buyer traffic was concerned, but March & April saw the pendings & sales really rise (from the few No. County areas we track).

OTOH, it looks like new listings aren’t coming on quite as quickly as they could. Most of the homes that were active listings in February have sold — particularly anything even resembling a good deal.

BTW, there might be a reason we are seeing banks sitting on empty houses. Will post on a fresh thread later…

[CA renter]

I wonder if the buyer ever paid anything at all?

It sounds suspiciously like the original seller credited back the $142K (20% of $710K) and maybe split it with the new buyer who paid $568. Now, they rent it out (maybe without making any mortgage payments), collecting the rent money while lenders are swamped with foreclosures & are bogged-down.

It would be very interesting to see their payment history.

[CA renter]

I wonder if the buyer ever paid anything at all?

It sounds suspiciously like the original seller credited back the $142K (20% of $710K) and maybe split it with the new buyer who paid $568. Now, they rent it out (maybe without making any mortgage payments), collecting the rent money while lenders are swamped with foreclosures & are bogged-down.

It would be very interesting to see their payment history.

[CA renter]

I wonder if the buyer ever paid anything at all?

It sounds suspiciously like the original seller credited back the $142K (20% of $710K) and maybe split it with the new buyer who paid $568. Now, they rent it out (maybe without making any mortgage payments), collecting the rent money while lenders are swamped with foreclosures & are bogged-down.

It would be very interesting to see their payment history.

[CA renter]

I wonder if the buyer ever paid anything at all?

It sounds suspiciously like the original seller credited back the $142K (20% of $710K) and maybe split it with the new buyer who paid $568. Now, they rent it out (maybe without making any mortgage payments), collecting the rent money while lenders are swamped with foreclosures & are bogged-down.

It would be very interesting to see their payment history.

[CA renter]

I wonder if the buyer ever paid anything at all?

It sounds suspiciously like the original seller credited back the $142K (20% of $710K) and maybe split it with the new buyer who paid $568. Now, they rent it out (maybe without making any mortgage payments), collecting the rent money while lenders are swamped with foreclosures & are bogged-down.

It would be very interesting to see their payment history.

[CA renter]

Sales will not fall to zero.

Inventory levels will not rise in perpetuity. Nor will prices or credit expansions, unless incomes do the same.

That being said, inventory levels are still at historical highs.

There are so many variables to the housing market:

SUPPLY:
-distressed vs. non-distressed inventory levels
-building (still going on) vs. obsolete/uninhabitable
homes
-bailouts vs. foreclosures
-on the market vs. pent-up/hidden inventory
(I’m seeing more and more empty houses with no
activity.)
-types of new units vs. tear-downs (multi-family
and SFH)

DEMAND:
-credit expansion vs. credit contraction
-wage growth vs. wage declines
-wealth gains vs. losses
-population growth vs. population decline
(also shift in demographics…new residents rich
or poor? those leaving are rich or poor?)
-family formation/living arrangements
(living arrangements becoming more crowded, or
spreading out?)
-falling dollar vs. strengthening dollar
-age demograhics: is a majority of the population
moving into their buying years, or selling years?

I know there’s still a lot missing from the above, but it’s just too difficult to determine exactly what prices will do in the future.

Personally, I think prices will decline to pre-2001 levels if there is only a mild recession. If the recession gets severe or becomes a depression, all bets are off. We could (possible, not likely) see the credit expansion return to 1982 levels, IMHO.

[CA renter]

Sales will not fall to zero.

Inventory levels will not rise in perpetuity. Nor will prices or credit expansions, unless incomes do the same.

That being said, inventory levels are still at historical highs.

There are so many variables to the housing market:

SUPPLY:
-distressed vs. non-distressed inventory levels
-building (still going on) vs. obsolete/uninhabitable
homes
-bailouts vs. foreclosures
-on the market vs. pent-up/hidden inventory
(I’m seeing more and more empty houses with no
activity.)
-types of new units vs. tear-downs (multi-family
and SFH)

DEMAND:
-credit expansion vs. credit contraction
-wage growth vs. wage declines
-wealth gains vs. losses
-population growth vs. population decline
(also shift in demographics…new residents rich
or poor? those leaving are rich or poor?)
-family formation/living arrangements
(living arrangements becoming more crowded, or
spreading out?)
-falling dollar vs. strengthening dollar
-age demograhics: is a majority of the population
moving into their buying years, or selling years?

I know there’s still a lot missing from the above, but it’s just too difficult to determine exactly what prices will do in the future.

Personally, I think prices will decline to pre-2001 levels if there is only a mild recession. If the recession gets severe or becomes a depression, all bets are off. We could (possible, not likely) see the credit expansion return to 1982 levels, IMHO.

[CA renter]

Sales will not fall to zero.

Inventory levels will not rise in perpetuity. Nor will prices or credit expansions, unless incomes do the same.

That being said, inventory levels are still at historical highs.

There are so many variables to the housing market:

SUPPLY:
-distressed vs. non-distressed inventory levels
-building (still going on) vs. obsolete/uninhabitable
homes
-bailouts vs. foreclosures
-on the market vs. pent-up/hidden inventory
(I’m seeing more and more empty houses with no
activity.)
-types of new units vs. tear-downs (multi-family
and SFH)

DEMAND:
-credit expansion vs. credit contraction
-wage growth vs. wage declines
-wealth gains vs. losses
-population growth vs. population decline
(also shift in demographics…new residents rich
or poor? those leaving are rich or poor?)
-family formation/living arrangements
(living arrangements becoming more crowded, or
spreading out?)
-falling dollar vs. strengthening dollar
-age demograhics: is a majority of the population
moving into their buying years, or selling years?

I know there’s still a lot missing from the above, but it’s just too difficult to determine exactly what prices will do in the future.

Personally, I think prices will decline to pre-2001 levels if there is only a mild recession. If the recession gets severe or becomes a depression, all bets are off. We could (possible, not likely) see the credit expansion return to 1982 levels, IMHO.

[CA renter]

Sales will not fall to zero.

Inventory levels will not rise in perpetuity. Nor will prices or credit expansions, unless incomes do the same.

That being said, inventory levels are still at historical highs.

There are so many variables to the housing market:

SUPPLY:
-distressed vs. non-distressed inventory levels
-building (still going on) vs. obsolete/uninhabitable
homes
-bailouts vs. foreclosures
-on the market vs. pent-up/hidden inventory
(I’m seeing more and more empty houses with no
activity.)
-types of new units vs. tear-downs (multi-family
and SFH)

DEMAND:
-credit expansion vs. credit contraction
-wage growth vs. wage declines
-wealth gains vs. losses
-population growth vs. population decline
(also shift in demographics…new residents rich
or poor? those leaving are rich or poor?)
-family formation/living arrangements
(living arrangements becoming more crowded, or
spreading out?)
-falling dollar vs. strengthening dollar
-age demograhics: is a majority of the population
moving into their buying years, or selling years?

I know there’s still a lot missing from the above, but it’s just too difficult to determine exactly what prices will do in the future.

Personally, I think prices will decline to pre-2001 levels if there is only a mild recession. If the recession gets severe or becomes a depression, all bets are off. We could (possible, not likely) see the credit expansion return to 1982 levels, IMHO.

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