[Bugs]

The only thing I find unfortunate about your family’s experience is the fact that your Dad was encouraged to buy during a rapidly declining market. Had you guys been better adivsed you would have held out for a couple more years while watching the prices continue to drop. Your payments would have ended up being a lot less and you guys might have have a little more discretionary income.

Much respect for everyone who triumphs over adversity and earns their place in this nation. I just hate to see people take advantage of you.

[Bugs]

The only thing I find unfortunate about your family’s experience is the fact that your Dad was encouraged to buy during a rapidly declining market. Had you guys been better adivsed you would have held out for a couple more years while watching the prices continue to drop. Your payments would have ended up being a lot less and you guys might have have a little more discretionary income.

Much respect for everyone who triumphs over adversity and earns their place in this nation. I just hate to see people take advantage of you.

[Bugs]

The only thing I find unfortunate about your family’s experience is the fact that your Dad was encouraged to buy during a rapidly declining market. Had you guys been better adivsed you would have held out for a couple more years while watching the prices continue to drop. Your payments would have ended up being a lot less and you guys might have have a little more discretionary income.

Much respect for everyone who triumphs over adversity and earns their place in this nation. I just hate to see people take advantage of you.

[Bugs]

The only thing I find unfortunate about your family’s experience is the fact that your Dad was encouraged to buy during a rapidly declining market. Had you guys been better adivsed you would have held out for a couple more years while watching the prices continue to drop. Your payments would have ended up being a lot less and you guys might have have a little more discretionary income.

Much respect for everyone who triumphs over adversity and earns their place in this nation. I just hate to see people take advantage of you.

[Bugs]

The only thing I find unfortunate about your family’s experience is the fact that your Dad was encouraged to buy during a rapidly declining market. Had you guys been better adivsed you would have held out for a couple more years while watching the prices continue to drop. Your payments would have ended up being a lot less and you guys might have have a little more discretionary income.

Much respect for everyone who triumphs over adversity and earns their place in this nation. I just hate to see people take advantage of you.

[Bugs]

This is somewhat related so I’ll post a real world example here.

I just completed several appraisals on a bulk holding of homes in western Riverside County, near the I-15/Hwy-91 junction. Yes, it’s in Riverside County, but we’re talking 30 miles or less to employment, not 60 as is the case for Riverside/Murrieta.

Anyways, I researched the entire sales history for all the homes in this subdivision, which consists of homes ranging from about 2,500 – 5,000 SqFt from the same builder, arrayed in several overlapping “communities”. The bottom end homes peaked in 2006 at about $650,OOO, and the upper end homes peaked at $1,000,000. Really, it corresponded in many respects to the San Elijo Hills area in San Marcos.

I performed a rental survey and found a couple examples of these homes renting at $2,200 – $2,500 per month. The highest as $3,000/month.

Anyways, I came across lots of NODs and some foreclosures, including some recent pendings and closed sales of REOs. Many of the original subdivision sales involved 80/20 loans and other obvious no-down financing.

What I found was that as late as late-2007 the pricing was holding out okay. But as of 12/2007 the pricing started dropping really dramatically. I now see an REO listing there on a 4,000 SqFt model that had previously sold in 2006 for $950+k is now listed for $700,000, and several examples of homes that are relisted at 25% – 30% less than their respective peaks in 2007. I even saw an early 2007 sale at $650,000 being relisted as an REO sale in the mid $400k ranges.

Most of the price movement has occurred within the last 4 months and it seems to be picking up steam. BTW, at these prices we’re already at $130 – $140 per SqFt, and none of these homes are even 3 years old yet. I even saw one closed sale at $122/SqFt.

TGs pain train has pulled into n/western Riverside County and the next stop is the OC. These banks will be getting more of these properties in foreclosure and they are competing with each other to sell them. When banks compete – you win.

As far as I can see it looks like we are headed for an overcorrection, and there’s nothing in front of us that will stop it. People may decide to jump into the market and purchase when pricing reached parity with their rents and they probably won’t get burned for that; but there’s no saying that the current rental structure is going to hold either. There’s certainly no fundamental reason why it has to.

[Bugs]

This is somewhat related so I’ll post a real world example here.

I just completed several appraisals on a bulk holding of homes in western Riverside County, near the I-15/Hwy-91 junction. Yes, it’s in Riverside County, but we’re talking 30 miles or less to employment, not 60 as is the case for Riverside/Murrieta.

Anyways, I researched the entire sales history for all the homes in this subdivision, which consists of homes ranging from about 2,500 – 5,000 SqFt from the same builder, arrayed in several overlapping “communities”. The bottom end homes peaked in 2006 at about $650,OOO, and the upper end homes peaked at $1,000,000. Really, it corresponded in many respects to the San Elijo Hills area in San Marcos.

I performed a rental survey and found a couple examples of these homes renting at $2,200 – $2,500 per month. The highest as $3,000/month.

Anyways, I came across lots of NODs and some foreclosures, including some recent pendings and closed sales of REOs. Many of the original subdivision sales involved 80/20 loans and other obvious no-down financing.

What I found was that as late as late-2007 the pricing was holding out okay. But as of 12/2007 the pricing started dropping really dramatically. I now see an REO listing there on a 4,000 SqFt model that had previously sold in 2006 for $950+k is now listed for $700,000, and several examples of homes that are relisted at 25% – 30% less than their respective peaks in 2007. I even saw an early 2007 sale at $650,000 being relisted as an REO sale in the mid $400k ranges.

Most of the price movement has occurred within the last 4 months and it seems to be picking up steam. BTW, at these prices we’re already at $130 – $140 per SqFt, and none of these homes are even 3 years old yet. I even saw one closed sale at $122/SqFt.

TGs pain train has pulled into n/western Riverside County and the next stop is the OC. These banks will be getting more of these properties in foreclosure and they are competing with each other to sell them. When banks compete – you win.

As far as I can see it looks like we are headed for an overcorrection, and there’s nothing in front of us that will stop it. People may decide to jump into the market and purchase when pricing reached parity with their rents and they probably won’t get burned for that; but there’s no saying that the current rental structure is going to hold either. There’s certainly no fundamental reason why it has to.

[Bugs]

This is somewhat related so I’ll post a real world example here.

I just completed several appraisals on a bulk holding of homes in western Riverside County, near the I-15/Hwy-91 junction. Yes, it’s in Riverside County, but we’re talking 30 miles or less to employment, not 60 as is the case for Riverside/Murrieta.

Anyways, I researched the entire sales history for all the homes in this subdivision, which consists of homes ranging from about 2,500 – 5,000 SqFt from the same builder, arrayed in several overlapping “communities”. The bottom end homes peaked in 2006 at about $650,OOO, and the upper end homes peaked at $1,000,000. Really, it corresponded in many respects to the San Elijo Hills area in San Marcos.

I performed a rental survey and found a couple examples of these homes renting at $2,200 – $2,500 per month. The highest as $3,000/month.

Anyways, I came across lots of NODs and some foreclosures, including some recent pendings and closed sales of REOs. Many of the original subdivision sales involved 80/20 loans and other obvious no-down financing.

What I found was that as late as late-2007 the pricing was holding out okay. But as of 12/2007 the pricing started dropping really dramatically. I now see an REO listing there on a 4,000 SqFt model that had previously sold in 2006 for $950+k is now listed for $700,000, and several examples of homes that are relisted at 25% – 30% less than their respective peaks in 2007. I even saw an early 2007 sale at $650,000 being relisted as an REO sale in the mid $400k ranges.

Most of the price movement has occurred within the last 4 months and it seems to be picking up steam. BTW, at these prices we’re already at $130 – $140 per SqFt, and none of these homes are even 3 years old yet. I even saw one closed sale at $122/SqFt.

TGs pain train has pulled into n/western Riverside County and the next stop is the OC. These banks will be getting more of these properties in foreclosure and they are competing with each other to sell them. When banks compete – you win.

As far as I can see it looks like we are headed for an overcorrection, and there’s nothing in front of us that will stop it. People may decide to jump into the market and purchase when pricing reached parity with their rents and they probably won’t get burned for that; but there’s no saying that the current rental structure is going to hold either. There’s certainly no fundamental reason why it has to.

[Bugs]

This is somewhat related so I’ll post a real world example here.

I just completed several appraisals on a bulk holding of homes in western Riverside County, near the I-15/Hwy-91 junction. Yes, it’s in Riverside County, but we’re talking 30 miles or less to employment, not 60 as is the case for Riverside/Murrieta.

Anyways, I researched the entire sales history for all the homes in this subdivision, which consists of homes ranging from about 2,500 – 5,000 SqFt from the same builder, arrayed in several overlapping “communities”. The bottom end homes peaked in 2006 at about $650,OOO, and the upper end homes peaked at $1,000,000. Really, it corresponded in many respects to the San Elijo Hills area in San Marcos.

I performed a rental survey and found a couple examples of these homes renting at $2,200 – $2,500 per month. The highest as $3,000/month.

Anyways, I came across lots of NODs and some foreclosures, including some recent pendings and closed sales of REOs. Many of the original subdivision sales involved 80/20 loans and other obvious no-down financing.

What I found was that as late as late-2007 the pricing was holding out okay. But as of 12/2007 the pricing started dropping really dramatically. I now see an REO listing there on a 4,000 SqFt model that had previously sold in 2006 for $950+k is now listed for $700,000, and several examples of homes that are relisted at 25% – 30% less than their respective peaks in 2007. I even saw an early 2007 sale at $650,000 being relisted as an REO sale in the mid $400k ranges.

Most of the price movement has occurred within the last 4 months and it seems to be picking up steam. BTW, at these prices we’re already at $130 – $140 per SqFt, and none of these homes are even 3 years old yet. I even saw one closed sale at $122/SqFt.

TGs pain train has pulled into n/western Riverside County and the next stop is the OC. These banks will be getting more of these properties in foreclosure and they are competing with each other to sell them. When banks compete – you win.

As far as I can see it looks like we are headed for an overcorrection, and there’s nothing in front of us that will stop it. People may decide to jump into the market and purchase when pricing reached parity with their rents and they probably won’t get burned for that; but there’s no saying that the current rental structure is going to hold either. There’s certainly no fundamental reason why it has to.

[Bugs]

This is somewhat related so I’ll post a real world example here.

I just completed several appraisals on a bulk holding of homes in western Riverside County, near the I-15/Hwy-91 junction. Yes, it’s in Riverside County, but we’re talking 30 miles or less to employment, not 60 as is the case for Riverside/Murrieta.

Anyways, I researched the entire sales history for all the homes in this subdivision, which consists of homes ranging from about 2,500 – 5,000 SqFt from the same builder, arrayed in several overlapping “communities”. The bottom end homes peaked in 2006 at about $650,OOO, and the upper end homes peaked at $1,000,000. Really, it corresponded in many respects to the San Elijo Hills area in San Marcos.

I performed a rental survey and found a couple examples of these homes renting at $2,200 – $2,500 per month. The highest as $3,000/month.

Anyways, I came across lots of NODs and some foreclosures, including some recent pendings and closed sales of REOs. Many of the original subdivision sales involved 80/20 loans and other obvious no-down financing.

What I found was that as late as late-2007 the pricing was holding out okay. But as of 12/2007 the pricing started dropping really dramatically. I now see an REO listing there on a 4,000 SqFt model that had previously sold in 2006 for $950+k is now listed for $700,000, and several examples of homes that are relisted at 25% – 30% less than their respective peaks in 2007. I even saw an early 2007 sale at $650,000 being relisted as an REO sale in the mid $400k ranges.

Most of the price movement has occurred within the last 4 months and it seems to be picking up steam. BTW, at these prices we’re already at $130 – $140 per SqFt, and none of these homes are even 3 years old yet. I even saw one closed sale at $122/SqFt.

TGs pain train has pulled into n/western Riverside County and the next stop is the OC. These banks will be getting more of these properties in foreclosure and they are competing with each other to sell them. When banks compete – you win.

As far as I can see it looks like we are headed for an overcorrection, and there’s nothing in front of us that will stop it. People may decide to jump into the market and purchase when pricing reached parity with their rents and they probably won’t get burned for that; but there’s no saying that the current rental structure is going to hold either. There’s certainly no fundamental reason why it has to.

[Bugs]

A BPO is a “Broker Price Opinion” and was most likely completed by a realty agent who may or may not have ever taken an appraisal course. The lenders use them instead of appraisals because they’re inexpensive and they aren’t very detailed. The broker who did your’s may have only been paid $35 for it, and they may or may not have stepped foot in that house when they did it.

I think it’s unlikely that most of the agents doing these BPOs have any relevant experience with unpermitted improvements, how it relates to the valuation or how to put a reasonable “as is” value on a property that has those types of problems. For that matter, there are some appraisers who shy away from such assignments, too. It does require some familiarity with the trades and with repair/rehab costs.

The general rule of thumb that most of the banks use is that the impact on value will usually be about double the retail cost of completing those repairs – and that includes getting the permits.

In answer to your question, even if the agent did see the unfinished condition of the interior then whatever their initial reaction to it was is probably about all you’re going to get out of them. The people who do these often run through them as quickly as they can. Detail isn’t their thing. I’ve heard that some agents to 8 or 10 of these a day.

[Bugs]

A BPO is a “Broker Price Opinion” and was most likely completed by a realty agent who may or may not have ever taken an appraisal course. The lenders use them instead of appraisals because they’re inexpensive and they aren’t very detailed. The broker who did your’s may have only been paid $35 for it, and they may or may not have stepped foot in that house when they did it.

I think it’s unlikely that most of the agents doing these BPOs have any relevant experience with unpermitted improvements, how it relates to the valuation or how to put a reasonable “as is” value on a property that has those types of problems. For that matter, there are some appraisers who shy away from such assignments, too. It does require some familiarity with the trades and with repair/rehab costs.

The general rule of thumb that most of the banks use is that the impact on value will usually be about double the retail cost of completing those repairs – and that includes getting the permits.

In answer to your question, even if the agent did see the unfinished condition of the interior then whatever their initial reaction to it was is probably about all you’re going to get out of them. The people who do these often run through them as quickly as they can. Detail isn’t their thing. I’ve heard that some agents to 8 or 10 of these a day.

[Bugs]

A BPO is a “Broker Price Opinion” and was most likely completed by a realty agent who may or may not have ever taken an appraisal course. The lenders use them instead of appraisals because they’re inexpensive and they aren’t very detailed. The broker who did your’s may have only been paid $35 for it, and they may or may not have stepped foot in that house when they did it.

I think it’s unlikely that most of the agents doing these BPOs have any relevant experience with unpermitted improvements, how it relates to the valuation or how to put a reasonable “as is” value on a property that has those types of problems. For that matter, there are some appraisers who shy away from such assignments, too. It does require some familiarity with the trades and with repair/rehab costs.

The general rule of thumb that most of the banks use is that the impact on value will usually be about double the retail cost of completing those repairs – and that includes getting the permits.

In answer to your question, even if the agent did see the unfinished condition of the interior then whatever their initial reaction to it was is probably about all you’re going to get out of them. The people who do these often run through them as quickly as they can. Detail isn’t their thing. I’ve heard that some agents to 8 or 10 of these a day.

[Bugs]

A BPO is a “Broker Price Opinion” and was most likely completed by a realty agent who may or may not have ever taken an appraisal course. The lenders use them instead of appraisals because they’re inexpensive and they aren’t very detailed. The broker who did your’s may have only been paid $35 for it, and they may or may not have stepped foot in that house when they did it.

I think it’s unlikely that most of the agents doing these BPOs have any relevant experience with unpermitted improvements, how it relates to the valuation or how to put a reasonable “as is” value on a property that has those types of problems. For that matter, there are some appraisers who shy away from such assignments, too. It does require some familiarity with the trades and with repair/rehab costs.

The general rule of thumb that most of the banks use is that the impact on value will usually be about double the retail cost of completing those repairs – and that includes getting the permits.

In answer to your question, even if the agent did see the unfinished condition of the interior then whatever their initial reaction to it was is probably about all you’re going to get out of them. The people who do these often run through them as quickly as they can. Detail isn’t their thing. I’ve heard that some agents to 8 or 10 of these a day.

[Bugs]

A BPO is a “Broker Price Opinion” and was most likely completed by a realty agent who may or may not have ever taken an appraisal course. The lenders use them instead of appraisals because they’re inexpensive and they aren’t very detailed. The broker who did your’s may have only been paid $35 for it, and they may or may not have stepped foot in that house when they did it.

I think it’s unlikely that most of the agents doing these BPOs have any relevant experience with unpermitted improvements, how it relates to the valuation or how to put a reasonable “as is” value on a property that has those types of problems. For that matter, there are some appraisers who shy away from such assignments, too. It does require some familiarity with the trades and with repair/rehab costs.

The general rule of thumb that most of the banks use is that the impact on value will usually be about double the retail cost of completing those repairs – and that includes getting the permits.

In answer to your question, even if the agent did see the unfinished condition of the interior then whatever their initial reaction to it was is probably about all you’re going to get out of them. The people who do these often run through them as quickly as they can. Detail isn’t their thing. I’ve heard that some agents to 8 or 10 of these a day.

[Author]

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