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ParticipantUsing the historical trendline, 2001 was when we made the transition from being in the red (undervalued) relative to the trendline to being in the black. I reckon we passed the point of the first standard deviation in late 2002 or maybe early 2003. Up until that point everything was still in the normal ebb and flow of the long term trends and could be considered reasonable. It was what happened later that got out of hand.
I think if you’re going to use any baseline you should go back to the trendline itself because so far the prices have always returned. That puts it back to the present value of the 2001 prices.
ParticipantWhat’s the point of getting down and rolling around in the mud with the permabulls? Much better for everyone if we just keep plugging away with the data and let the facts speak for themselves. Don’t forget; the housing bears have taken a beating for the last few years because it is just about impossible to argue with someone who’s making money.
It’s a catch-22. It’s pointless to argue with someone who thinks they’re up and it’s not cool to kick someone when they realize they’re down.
ParticipantIt’s my understanding that boats are always a horrible way to spend money. Only cars come close to boats in terms of being money losers.
On the other hand, if the markets are tough in 5 years a used truck will be a lot easier to sell than a new one. i wouldn’t worry about that.
ParticipantI did a quick-n-dirty count in public records, which shows 450,862 SFRs and condos built prior to 1994, and 72,295 built after 1994. That’s about a 14% increase in the housing stocks, which to me means we’d have to see another 14% increase in listing inventory before we reached the effective conditions of the mid-1990s.
ParticipantI think MM is one of the most undervalued areas in the region when considering the age and quality of the housing stock and it’s proximity to employment. MM is surrounded by Rancho Penaquitos and Scripps to the north and east; and the employment areas of Miramar, Kearney Mesa, UTC and Sorrento Valley to the south and west. What’s not to like about the location?
I think this is an area that could easily make up for lost ground the next time the cycle comes around.
ParticipantIdiot
ParticipantAnd to think there are a lot of Americans who think our government is being invasive when they ask the phone companies for lists of phone calls made for the (alleged) purpose of chasing terrorists. Now the average joe can look right into his neighors’ personal lives to see if they’re doing what he thinks they should be doing.
ParticipantApparently you could afford the purchases when you bought them. You had the desire to own them and the means to satisfy those desires without having to overextend yourself. There’s nothing wrong with satisfying your desires and taking your happiness where you can find it, so long as you’re not jeopardizing everything else in your life to do it.
It seems to me that your question has more to do with your priorities than anything else. If the only thing that matters to you is your bottom line then perhaps now would be a good time to sell. If what matters the most are the benefits that you’re currently getting out of these possessions and the money is secondary then there’s no need to give that up.
The only way this would have been a problem for you is if you sacrificed the things you need in the long term in order to satisfy the short term urge. If that was the case then you wouldn’t have been able to afford those purchases in the first place and you would have had to overextend yourself in order to buy the payments. But your rendition of this doesn’t include any indication of that, so I’d say the choice between the two options is best made on the basis of what’s important to you.
ParticipantPeople will unload their uber-cars long before they give up on their house.
Participant2002 is when the prices exceeded the prior peak (in 1990), so that’s when prices started getting unreasonable in my book.
ParticipantI don’t have any idea if this is the home, but didn’t the city have to buy a home up there as a result of geologic and foundations problems?
ParticipantI doubt they’re disclosing the foreclosures because they want to. They’re doing it because they need to move that property as soon as possible before the losses rack up farther.
I have to guess that for all the listings that mention the “F” word there are still others that are in the same boat but are not being marketed that way. That leads me to wonder how many of them there really are.
ParticipantThe median wages would have to decline by a proportionate amount to affect rental pricing. I don’t think there are any high-wage occupations that are gearing up to replace the lost RE-related occupations. Still, San Diego County still has a somewhat diverse economy that does include a larger-than-average share of government and government related occupations. Our economy didn’t revolve around real estate prior to 2000 so – barring the world-wide meltdown some of you guys are projecting – I think there will still be life after RE. I think the median income figure will remain more or less stable even if the value of the dollars that comprise those wages declines.
While we’re on the subject of short-temt timing, I think the meltdown in sale prices will occur, but I think it’ll take longer than just a couple years. Bear in mind that a mortgagee who knows how to abuse the system can forestall foreclosure by as long as 12 months if they want to badly enough.
ParticipantAirliners, farm equipment, big ticket military stuff
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