[Bugs]

If I were a professional economist and my reputation mattered to me, I’d be a bit circumspect, too. Since nobody knows or cares who I am I can get away with not having to worry about that on this blog.

He somewhat has to express his public opinions in conservative tones. Nobody can account for the unforseeable. Better to be wrong by degree than by direction. He gets almost full credit for being right even if the market winds up overshooting his initial projections.

As for where it settles, I spent a couple hours over the weekend looking at all the closed sales so far from May 2007 in the MLS for Carlsbad and Oceanside. I was looking for properties with recent prior sales from 2003-2006. I found a number of examples of current sale prices matching previous sales prices on the same home from mid to late 2004. That doesn’t include the losses from 2005 and 2006.

The 05/2007 price didn’t retract to the 2004 price in 100% of the examples I saw, but it was more than 70%.

[Bugs]

So much for the BPO being independent and impartial.

[Bugs]

So much for the BPO being independent and impartial.

[Bugs]

Median = dull spoon. Those numbers might look a bit worse than they really are.

[Bugs]

Median = dull spoon. Those numbers might look a bit worse than they really are.

[Bugs]

Who’s the author? David Strietfield (sp?) writes for the Times and he’s done a couple articles on the downturn and related subjects. One of his foreclosure articles ran on the front page about a month ago.

[Bugs]

Who’s the author? David Strietfield (sp?) writes for the Times and he’s done a couple articles on the downturn and related subjects. One of his foreclosure articles ran on the front page about a month ago.

[Bugs]

When we were talking about this kind of thing happening on the outskirts first and working their way in, we were not guessing and we were not exagerrating.

I think there are probably a lot of people who will drive the extra 5 miles to save $100k. There are probably even more buyers who are looking at these price cuts and are coming to the conclusion that this wave isn’t stopping soon and maybe they should wait.

Anyone who bought high and is now struggling with the decision of whether or not to refi their ARM is probably deciding to throw in the towel. The combo of declining prices and ARM resets will create a vicious cycle of foreclosures and more price cuts.

[Bugs]

When we were talking about this kind of thing happening on the outskirts first and working their way in, we were not guessing and we were not exagerrating.

I think there are probably a lot of people who will drive the extra 5 miles to save $100k. There are probably even more buyers who are looking at these price cuts and are coming to the conclusion that this wave isn’t stopping soon and maybe they should wait.

Anyone who bought high and is now struggling with the decision of whether or not to refi their ARM is probably deciding to throw in the towel. The combo of declining prices and ARM resets will create a vicious cycle of foreclosures and more price cuts.

[Bugs]

In any society, the slackers tend to coast and the overachievers go whereever they have to go and do whatever they have to do to get what they want. The immigrants we see here in the U.S. are not the slackers from their nations of origin – they are the overachievers or else they wouldn’t be here.

Many immigrants are largely familiar with that quaint notion of sacrificing now for what they want later. They trade the consumption of disposable goods for the consumption of RE. Not necessarily more virtuous, just a different set of priorities.

If you want to skim on your taxes, you’re not going to have the opportunity to do so by remaining in the employ of a company that reports your income to the IRS. A lot of immigrants know this from past experience at home. They know they need to follow the lead of the American merchant class and do it the good old fashioned way, by opening their own business and skimming the profits off the top.

Having a houshold income of $80k a year isn’t necessarily living poor if the top $20k isn’t taxed.

[Bugs]

In any society, the slackers tend to coast and the overachievers go whereever they have to go and do whatever they have to do to get what they want. The immigrants we see here in the U.S. are not the slackers from their nations of origin – they are the overachievers or else they wouldn’t be here.

Many immigrants are largely familiar with that quaint notion of sacrificing now for what they want later. They trade the consumption of disposable goods for the consumption of RE. Not necessarily more virtuous, just a different set of priorities.

If you want to skim on your taxes, you’re not going to have the opportunity to do so by remaining in the employ of a company that reports your income to the IRS. A lot of immigrants know this from past experience at home. They know they need to follow the lead of the American merchant class and do it the good old fashioned way, by opening their own business and skimming the profits off the top.

Having a houshold income of $80k a year isn’t necessarily living poor if the top $20k isn’t taxed.

[Bugs]

There are a lot of owners in Del Sur who work in RE or related businesses. Their fortunes were riding on the health of the local RE markets. The market is down, hence their own losses.

If Fairbanks Ranch was a pretender to Rancho Santa Fe status during the last bust, Del Sur is the pretender to Fairbanks this time around. It’ll probably do a lot better after it gets built out and stabilized.

[Bugs]

There are a lot of owners in Del Sur who work in RE or related businesses. Their fortunes were riding on the health of the local RE markets. The market is down, hence their own losses.

If Fairbanks Ranch was a pretender to Rancho Santa Fe status during the last bust, Del Sur is the pretender to Fairbanks this time around. It’ll probably do a lot better after it gets built out and stabilized.

[Bugs]

4plex

12,000/year is obviously too many homes to add every year, and the 4,000-5,000 years seem to happen when we need to absorb the excess. I would guess that if the cycles would level out some we’d probably split the difference in an average year and come up with a smaller variance between the fat and lean years. Say, 6,000 – 9,000 per year.

Of course, if these cycles were to ever flatten out that would basically remove the speculators from the market. There wouldn’t be any big short term gains to be made.

I think the effects of the internet age could result in flatter swings in the market, especially after this party/hangover cycle is completed. Enough blogs have popped up, including some data-centric ones like this one, that more people are going to realize that they could have seen this coming had they just taken the time and effort to look.

Unlike the stock market, which in some ways really is rigged in favor of the insiders, the RE markets are basically transparent. Especially so when considering the rise of public access to readily available data from multiple sources. The average buyer can now see about 95% of what’s happening from the outside, independent of listening to what truths or untruths an insider might tell them.

I think more and more buyers are going to tune into the fact that the they can tell which way it’s going to go (although not necessarily the timing) if they just watch the numbers. Couple that with the relative illiquidity and the slow pace in which changes can occur, and I think it’s possible the RE markets could eventually stabilize with movement only occurring when its economically warranted.

[Bugs]

4plex

12,000/year is obviously too many homes to add every year, and the 4,000-5,000 years seem to happen when we need to absorb the excess. I would guess that if the cycles would level out some we’d probably split the difference in an average year and come up with a smaller variance between the fat and lean years. Say, 6,000 – 9,000 per year.

Of course, if these cycles were to ever flatten out that would basically remove the speculators from the market. There wouldn’t be any big short term gains to be made.

I think the effects of the internet age could result in flatter swings in the market, especially after this party/hangover cycle is completed. Enough blogs have popped up, including some data-centric ones like this one, that more people are going to realize that they could have seen this coming had they just taken the time and effort to look.

Unlike the stock market, which in some ways really is rigged in favor of the insiders, the RE markets are basically transparent. Especially so when considering the rise of public access to readily available data from multiple sources. The average buyer can now see about 95% of what’s happening from the outside, independent of listening to what truths or untruths an insider might tell them.

I think more and more buyers are going to tune into the fact that the they can tell which way it’s going to go (although not necessarily the timing) if they just watch the numbers. Couple that with the relative illiquidity and the slow pace in which changes can occur, and I think it’s possible the RE markets could eventually stabilize with movement only occurring when its economically warranted.

[Author]

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