[bob007]

I have a better suggestion. Move out to a state where real estate is cheap.

[bob007]

I have a better suggestion. Move out to a state where real estate is cheap.

[bob007]

Ivy Zelman, a blunt-speaking bearish analyst with a knack for spotting signs of trouble in the housing market, is resigning from her position at Credit Suisse Group.

Ms. Zelman, who has worked at the financial-services company for nearly 10 years, says she is leaving to pursue more “entrepreneurial” and lucrative opportunities in the housing sector, though she has no formal offer at the moment.

Known for her probing questions to home-builder executives during earnings conference calls, Ms. Zelman focused on issues such as a flood of speculators in the new-home market, an oversupply of land and problems posed by subprime mortgages. She challenged bullish home builders and analysts, who believed home sales would keep roaring despite signs of speculative excess. After relatively upbeat statements by Toll Brothers Inc. chief executive Robert Toll during a conference call last December, she asked, “I am wondering which Kool-Aid you’re drinking?”

She was ranked the top home-builder analyst in The Wall Street Journal’s 2006 “Best on the Street” analyst survey. Before Credit Suisse, she worked at Salomon Brothers (now part of Citigroup Inc.) first in investment banking and later as equity analyst, focusing on housing.

Credit Suisse said Ms. Zelman is leaving on good terms. The firm declined to say how much she was paid. “Ivy personifies great propriety research, intense conviction and unmatched competitive spirit. She helped develop some of the strongest people we have in the department,” said Lara Warner, managing director and director of U.S. equity research at Credit Suisse.

[bob007]

Ivy Zelman, a blunt-speaking bearish analyst with a knack for spotting signs of trouble in the housing market, is resigning from her position at Credit Suisse Group.

Ms. Zelman, who has worked at the financial-services company for nearly 10 years, says she is leaving to pursue more “entrepreneurial” and lucrative opportunities in the housing sector, though she has no formal offer at the moment.

Known for her probing questions to home-builder executives during earnings conference calls, Ms. Zelman focused on issues such as a flood of speculators in the new-home market, an oversupply of land and problems posed by subprime mortgages. She challenged bullish home builders and analysts, who believed home sales would keep roaring despite signs of speculative excess. After relatively upbeat statements by Toll Brothers Inc. chief executive Robert Toll during a conference call last December, she asked, “I am wondering which Kool-Aid you’re drinking?”

She was ranked the top home-builder analyst in The Wall Street Journal’s 2006 “Best on the Street” analyst survey. Before Credit Suisse, she worked at Salomon Brothers (now part of Citigroup Inc.) first in investment banking and later as equity analyst, focusing on housing.

Credit Suisse said Ms. Zelman is leaving on good terms. The firm declined to say how much she was paid. “Ivy personifies great propriety research, intense conviction and unmatched competitive spirit. She helped develop some of the strongest people we have in the department,” said Lara Warner, managing director and director of U.S. equity research at Credit Suisse.

[bob007]

A lot of Indian/Chinese engineers on H-1 already own homes in Southern California.

[bob007]

A lot of Indian/Chinese engineers on H-1 already own homes in Southern California.

[bob007]

if something doubled in 10 years the annual growth rate is 70 divided by 10 which is 7%

the basic rule is
interest rates need to be above inflation rate for a currency to be valuable

[bob007]

if something doubled in 10 years the annual growth rate is 70 divided by 10 which is 7%

the basic rule is
interest rates need to be above inflation rate for a currency to be valuable

[bob007]

Most of the foreclosures will be in Arizona, Florida, Las Vegas, Central Valley, Inland Empire.

I doubt coastal California will see a large number of foreclosures.

[bob007]

Most of the foreclosures will be in Arizona, Florida, Las Vegas, Central Valley, Inland Empire.

I doubt coastal California will see a large number of foreclosures.

[bob007]

there is limited amount of desired land and limited stock of housing in desired neighborhoods.

but there is equally limited amount of income families/individuals have. It is ridiculous to expect high salaried professionals to dump all their earnings into housing. In case of technology it leads to exodus of jobs from USA. In case of health care it leads to escalating health care cost that no one can afford.

I really wish interest rates climb to 7.5% and stay there for 5 years. It will put the brakes on this stupid real estate specualtion for a while.

[bob007]

there is limited amount of desired land and limited stock of housing in desired neighborhoods.

but there is equally limited amount of income families/individuals have. It is ridiculous to expect high salaried professionals to dump all their earnings into housing. In case of technology it leads to exodus of jobs from USA. In case of health care it leads to escalating health care cost that no one can afford.

I really wish interest rates climb to 7.5% and stay there for 5 years. It will put the brakes on this stupid real estate specualtion for a while.

[bob007]

I presume high inflation is accompanied by high interest rates. (assuming some folks in government want to tame inflation)

I wouldn’t want to speculate what 10% interest rate would do to California real estate prices

[bob007]

I presume high inflation is accompanied by high interest rates. (assuming some folks in government want to tame inflation)

I wouldn’t want to speculate what 10% interest rate would do to California real estate prices

[bob007]

I doubt my income would keep up with inflation

[Author]

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