[Artifact]

Figures – the first two are the same as usual. Nothing new, just the same trend we have been seeing.

I scrapped the third plot in favor of a new one. I did not think it was adding anything new, just replotting data from the first two figures. The new figure combines some data from a different thread – the weekly NOT’s – I just wanted to see what this looks like and I am not really sure what to make of it. There are 3 things plotted – the number of NOT’s and the change in listings are against the left axis. The change in listings is a function of both new listings and sales – so I then just divided the NOT’s by the change in listings to get a ratio.

That ratio is just a generic measure of foreclosure activity versus MLS activity – I included “zero” lines for listings and for the ratio. I am open to suggestions as to how to improve that, or better yet, interpetation of what the hell it means? There is obviously some error in this as the data are not from the exact same source. The NOT’s cannot be negative but the listings can go negative due to higher sales than listings, or more likely expired listings. As usual with these type of data, the overall trend is far more important than looking at weekly variation or any of the “extreme” weeks.

Cheers,

T

[img_assist|nid=4737|title= Total Listings and Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=280]
[img_assist|nid=4738|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=280]
[img_assist|nid=4739|title=NOT Ratio|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=343]

[Artifact]

Here is a plot of the monthly data to show it visually – I included 200 to 2007 plus 1996 for reference. I think it speaks for itself – things start unwinding in 2006 and have not slowed down. I suppose it would be interesting to compare how quickly things came apart prior to 1996, but I only had a minute to enter the data.

[img_assist|nid=4724|title= Monthly NOTs|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=374]

T

[Artifact]

New figures – nothing new – sorry for being lazy and not updating the axis so that short sales fit on the plot – maybe if they were not increasing so quickly….

[img_assist|nid=4668|title= Total Listing and Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=247]
[img_assist|nid=4669|title= Percent Change|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=247]
[img_assist|nid=4670|title= Short Sale Trends|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=247]

[Artifact]

I don’t know why, but the numbers above don’t match exactly with the numbers from the link in the first post. So I replotted the raw numbers and then made a second plot with the inventory/sales number. There was obviously a big jump from Dec 2006 to Jan 2007 that I think must be something funny with listings?

The first plot shows more or less the same trend as my original figure and the months of inventory through July was already higher than any point in 2006 – since we know sales fell in August even without an actual number and inventory grew, I think it is safe to say that once we have that number, it will be higher than th eAugust 2006 number.

[img_assist|nid=4666|title= Raw Inventory Numbers|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=336]
[img_assist|nid=4667|title= Months of Inventory|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=336]

[Artifact]

HWG – I can do that easily enough, I just need to get the sales data – that would not be a perfect comparison but should serve to give an estimate – anyone know where to get those numbers? I will look myself, but I am sure someone here can find them faster than me.

Edit: Nevermind – I forgot about those data – easy enough now.

[Artifact]

Here is a plot overlaying the two years data from the above link.

From a pure statistical view, no they are not very different. But, like I said above, the next couple of months will be interesting. By September of last year, inventory was falling – this year it is still climbing. If that trend continues next month – or inventory stays flat – the difference can grow in a hurry. That of course does not account for the months of inventory either.

T
[img_assist|nid=4662|title=SFR/Condo Inventory|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=436]

[Artifact]

According to the link you posted, inventory has risen 3.6% in the past month, 11% in 3 months and 36% in the past 6 months. I think we will agree that this has a component of seasonal cycling, but it also shows that inventories are rising, not staying flat as you claim. I am not sure of the “normal” cycles, but the next couple of months will be interesting to see if inventory rises or falls. I think a fall would be normal while a rise would be abnormal.

Given the fall off in sales, the more important number is the increase in months of inventory.

T

[Artifact]

Here is the figure with the last two weeks data included. I would agree that the weekly variation includes quite a bit of noise, what is becoming apparrent now that we have enough weeks data to look at is that there is an overall trend upward, not “skyrocketing”, but it is increasing – the last time there was a week with less than 100 REO’s was the 10th to 17th of July and in some weeks it is substantially higher than that. The same is true of the other two numbers as well – July 2 was the low point. For the past 7 weeks, we have averaged 148 REO’s per week, for the 7 weeks prior to that it was 108.

T

[img_assist|nid=4575|title= NOD’s, NOT’s and REO’s|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=242]

[Artifact]

Late figures again – sorry about that. I guess the big thing to note is that the short sales now make up more than 20% of the total listings (insert usual warnings comments here about these not being perfectly accurate numbers – just a way to look at trends).

[img_assist|nid=4535|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]
[img_assist|nid=4536|title= Percent Change and Percent Short|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]
[img_assist|nid=4537|title= Short Sales Trends|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]

[Artifact]

Late figures again – sorry about that. I guess the big thing to note is that the short sales now make up more than 20% of the total listings (insert usual warnings comments here about these not being perfectly accurate numbers – just a way to look at trends).

[img_assist|nid=4535|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]
[img_assist|nid=4536|title= Percent Change and Percent Short|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]
[img_assist|nid=4537|title= Short Sales Trends|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]

[Artifact]

Late figures again – sorry about that. I guess the big thing to note is that the short sales now make up more than 20% of the total listings (insert usual warnings comments here about these not being perfectly accurate numbers – just a way to look at trends).

[img_assist|nid=4535|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]
[img_assist|nid=4536|title= Percent Change and Percent Short|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]
[img_assist|nid=4537|title= Short Sales Trends|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]

[Artifact]

Well, since sdr is determined to make me work – and not wanting to fall behind again!

The plots are getting interesting, and maybe a little harder (or easier) to read. The first to show what we have been seeing all along. Short sales continue to grow faster than total listings. Basically every week this entire year, the percent change in short sales has been larger than for listings. We can see that in the first plot with the to lines somehwat superimposed – in the past few weeks these have really started to separate.

I redid the third plot to update the trendline for short sales – that is difficult to really explain what it is saying. The trend line was generated using only 2007 data (excluding the strange month at the end of 2006) – excluding that makes the slope greater than it would be so it would be considered “conservative” statistically to exclude them. That being said, the trend has stayed pretty close to that slope all year – until the last few weeks. In July, the short sales jumped to the upper side of the line (increased faster than the “norm”) but then stayed flat again for a couple of weeks. Over the last 3 weeks that has changed again and the short sales have increased faster than the norm for that time. This is not really seen in the precent change data. Those data have basically stayed flat, but are always positive. The next few weeks to months will be very interesting –

sdr – will REO’s that are on the MLS turn up on your search? I am just thinking if the banks start to put those on the market they will not be called short, so it may show a bias in the total listings counting things that are not short sales, but are not the same as a normal listing. This whole analysis is not exact as we know, but that could throw off the overall trend.
[img_assist|nid=4305|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=4306|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=4307|title= Trends in Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]

[Artifact]

Well, since sdr is determined to make me work – and not wanting to fall behind again!

The plots are getting interesting, and maybe a little harder (or easier) to read. The first to show what we have been seeing all along. Short sales continue to grow faster than total listings. Basically every week this entire year, the percent change in short sales has been larger than for listings. We can see that in the first plot with the to lines somehwat superimposed – in the past few weeks these have really started to separate.

I redid the third plot to update the trendline for short sales – that is difficult to really explain what it is saying. The trend line was generated using only 2007 data (excluding the strange month at the end of 2006) – excluding that makes the slope greater than it would be so it would be considered “conservative” statistically to exclude them. That being said, the trend has stayed pretty close to that slope all year – until the last few weeks. In July, the short sales jumped to the upper side of the line (increased faster than the “norm”) but then stayed flat again for a couple of weeks. Over the last 3 weeks that has changed again and the short sales have increased faster than the norm for that time. This is not really seen in the precent change data. Those data have basically stayed flat, but are always positive. The next few weeks to months will be very interesting –

sdr – will REO’s that are on the MLS turn up on your search? I am just thinking if the banks start to put those on the market they will not be called short, so it may show a bias in the total listings counting things that are not short sales, but are not the same as a normal listing. This whole analysis is not exact as we know, but that could throw off the overall trend.
[img_assist|nid=4305|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=4306|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=4307|title= Trends in Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]

[Artifact]

Well, since sdr is determined to make me work – and not wanting to fall behind again!

The plots are getting interesting, and maybe a little harder (or easier) to read. The first to show what we have been seeing all along. Short sales continue to grow faster than total listings. Basically every week this entire year, the percent change in short sales has been larger than for listings. We can see that in the first plot with the to lines somehwat superimposed – in the past few weeks these have really started to separate.

I redid the third plot to update the trendline for short sales – that is difficult to really explain what it is saying. The trend line was generated using only 2007 data (excluding the strange month at the end of 2006) – excluding that makes the slope greater than it would be so it would be considered “conservative” statistically to exclude them. That being said, the trend has stayed pretty close to that slope all year – until the last few weeks. In July, the short sales jumped to the upper side of the line (increased faster than the “norm”) but then stayed flat again for a couple of weeks. Over the last 3 weeks that has changed again and the short sales have increased faster than the norm for that time. This is not really seen in the precent change data. Those data have basically stayed flat, but are always positive. The next few weeks to months will be very interesting –

sdr – will REO’s that are on the MLS turn up on your search? I am just thinking if the banks start to put those on the market they will not be called short, so it may show a bias in the total listings counting things that are not short sales, but are not the same as a normal listing. This whole analysis is not exact as we know, but that could throw off the overall trend.
[img_assist|nid=4305|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=4306|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=4307|title= Trends in Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]

[Artifact]

I decided to go ahead and post an updated figure with the last few weeks data included. There is definitely a general trend upward, but plotted on a week to week basis, the data are very noisy – On a month-to-month basis, there is a pretty clear increase, most clearly seen in the NOD’s.

[img_assist|nid=4304|title= NOD’s, NOT’s and REO’s|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=273]

[Author]

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