[anxvariety]

PS, I believe COP’s (Conocophillips) forward P/E is 6.. it’s pretty as close to a slam dunk as this stuff gets in my opinion.. I’ve loaded up on the November 60 calls and some other other energy option plays reccomended by Zeal.

[anxvariety]

Right when I hit submit on this thread the newsletter came!

The 50,000ft view is.. talking about metals corrections, that its normal, things can’t always go straight up.. also talks about Corrections and how to determine a buying opportunity.

It appears they have also closed out alot of the mining positions that they have reccomended over the last few months.. PowaySeller, I own the same mining company that you do.. the one Zeal reccomended.. they close that position this month.

The final words in the newsletter are ‘Stay long in oil!’

[anxvariety]

I only know of 4 people(oceanside,oceanside,bonsall, poway).. out of all the people I’ve talked to over the last couple of years(one is on this board), that took the cash from selling their house and are holding on to it.. most other people had big wins in real estate, but they put that money right back into upgrading into a bigger house.

It seems these days that home equity has replaced the need for a savings account in peoples minds..

It is amazing the amount of control people have given the banks.. with complete control of the persons interest rate, seems they are indirectly in control of the presons savings(equity)… seems like the swipe at everyones savings is beggining as the cycles reverses..

[anxvariety]

It does’t always cost money to learn.. With poker and investing there are free versions out there.. I think a person, if disciplined, could use the stock market simulator and play money poker sites to build up their skills without all the risk..

I think what you said is great JB “The trick is not earning money, the trick is holding onto it, and making it work for you”. It’s pretty hard to just hold on to money… I feel like the air is full of frequencies beaming consumerism at us all, and it’s pretty darned hard to resist sometimes! 🙂

[anxvariety]

In the other thread we’ve been talking about the next generation of buyers and how right now most have no money saved…

I constantly wonder how anyone that has no money saved now in this period of economic prosperity will manage to save money over the next years with inflation and higher unemployment coming..

Especially if banks are going to revert back to the old 20% down payment stuff after the next 5 years of foreclosure and default.

BTW, your post makes me think the FED really is just going to start printing money and paying off debt.. and normalize money towards the current house prices.. so that a 500k house really is not overpriced in terms of other things.. The part that perplexes me the most is what are wages going to do?? Does everyone just get a 200% raise in this scenario?

[anxvariety]

I think alot of this comes down to the dangers investing on margin.. People are buying houses investing on margin with the idea that it’s a no risk investment..

Most people understand that they should usually only invest with money they can afford to lose.. but when it comes to housing it seems like people think there are zero risks and that there’s no way they could lose in this investment… then it gets even worse since they’re investing on margin(borrowing money to invest with).. and I don’t think that’s money they can afford to lose.. since you know, they are borrowing it 🙂 and will have to pay it back no matter what.

I invest with money that I’ve earned through salary.. I feel it makes me more careful.. Most of the people that I know(people I know at work) that have taken home equity(funny money) and put it into the stock market lose that money.. because they aren’t careful with it and are under the illusion that since their home went up, they will win on any investment they make..

[anxvariety]

You guys!! You’re forgetting you can write off you interest!!! 😉

I hear that from so many people.. as if that’s going to put me into the market.

It’s sad to think that an interest only loan satisifes some people’s ‘pride of ownership’ when it seems they all they really have is an option to sell.. lots of risk and very little upside at this point..

Learning about stock options really helped me get over the pride of ownership aspect.. Example I used to hold about 70% of my savings in stocks(I know, I know risky).. but a few months ago I sold everything off except for my gold fund and bought options.. I love options, because I can set the max amount I’m willing to lose up front(maybe not a winners strategy, but I’m very skittish in todays markets)… The options are far more volatile and with the type of speculation I’m into the gains can be incredible.. I know everyones invesmtment objectives are different, and every scenario is different.. but the basic idea applied to housing I think can help people get over the illusion about desiring ‘pride of ownership’..

I feel alot more comfortable holding options than I do the entire stock.. It sastifies my need to sort of sit on the sideline hiding and strike quick when I want to… it’s taught me alot about the drawbacks of and illusions of owning something.. well, that and my car.. that was another good lesson.. how have our cars seduced us into paying interest on them even though they are depreicating?? Isn’t that the antithesis to investing!! I have a feeling that alot of people are going to learn that lesson in the next few years….

If you’re interested in options.. you can read about them here..
http://biz.yahoo.com/opt/education.html

[anxvariety]

Poway,

I don’t see being isolated and 5 acres as synonymous.. like I said, my parents only had one acre, but it was backed up to a hundred acre park.. There are quite a few of places like that. I do realize that buying 5 acres in a city area is cost prohibitive.. but I think it’s possible to find areas that are somewhere in between(See: Guajome Park in Oceanside)..

I understand what you’re saying abuot remoteness though powayseller.. Fallbrook is a place like that where you can get lots of land, but it’s a very kid boring place.. most of the people that are the age for kids live in neighboring Oceanside and Vista.

Hopefully I haven’t hijacked my own thread! Sad! 🙂

[anxvariety]

I double posted please delete. Thanks.

[anxvariety]

It really is amazing to see what parents spend on their kids.. It’s not surprising how effective marketing to children is.. because they’re easier to lure in, and their strength over the parents purchasing decisions is pretty overwhelming, especially if the parents have any guilt about their parenting skills.

My parents really never bought me any toys or fashionable clothes and for the most part I wasn’t interested.. I believe this is because I stayed away from TV..

How did my parents facjilitate this? The way they did it was relatively hands off.. when I was about 2 years old they bought a house on an acre next to a 100 acre park.. They didnt have to worry about their me taking much of an interest in television.. Is it anywonder why kids would take to consumerism and TV brain food if they are tied up in a tiny condo with a 10sq ft patch of grass for them to play in?

I bet most parents here, by virtue of less population, had alot more space to play in when they were kids…

Having that park and land to play on a kid I believe shaped my personality more than anything… I am friendly to animals and nature and am also pretty succcessful at 26.. I attribute it to being outside as a kid, building stuff, catching animals, doing yardwork and exploring. So if parents want to consider their kids in the buying of a house, I give land and parks the highest mark for enriching children…

Hopefully that doesn’t sound like I’m giving parenting advice.. because coming from a 26 year old virgin, you might not want to listen!

Just kidding about the virgin part 😉

[anxvariety]

I think we’ll see kids staying in their parents house longer.. maybe converting the garage into a second house?

Has it always been this way for 20 somethings? That isn’t something I would know, I’ve only been 20 now once! 🙂

But as someone said in this thread.. the media is influenceing this generation maybe heavier than any other generation? Us 20 somethings (the MTV generation) are at the plate… with the MySpace generation coming up next!

The difference I think is that 20 somethings these days are taking on debt like never possible before

Think about it real estate gurus.. if banks are letting people borrow 100% against an inflated assett in the hundreds of thousands.. can you imagine what they’re doing us naive young chaps?? Banks are well aware that credit cards are the cream of the crop.. they can charge like 20-30% a year!! Just think how much room they have for error with those sorts of profits…

Even if my frieds were to cut back on what they buy… they are on a ball and chain with the things they already bought… probably 5-10 years of substantial payments whether it be TVs, motorcycles, sound systems, modification for their cars, music equipment.. If they fix their spending now, maybe in 20-30 years they’ll have the 20% down that banks will probably require after this cycle…

That was the whole idea of the thread.. just giving a heads up on at least one sample of 20 somethings.. it does not look good at all.. unless some magic bubble appears and loans them all hundreds of thousands of dollars. I was originally very concenred about this real estate bubble.. now I’m even more concerned about the recovery of this bubbble.. I just can’t figure where the help is going to come from….

When this confetti clears and people ditch the hysteria goggles I think we’ll realize that 2.5 middle class generations have been whiped out.. then hopefully we’ll start seeing an overhaul in banking system with regulations and some sort of checks and balance system/oversight..

[anxvariety]

I just want to add.. that the paycheck-to-paycheck mentality of my peers is scary.. but what really scares me, is that to them there is no consequence… the fix for them is to get more credit.. or hope that they get more hours at their job?? Even though they are living this way – the next thing I expect to hear from them is – “Hey I just bought an Escalade and a dirtbike!”.

The thought of savings is completely foreign to them…

Do any of you older folks understand how many people my age 20-30 live with their parents? I havea lot of friends that do.. and they’re not drug junkies either.. I believe it’s just become part of this generation… Why or what changed? I do not know.. That’s brings up another issue that scares me… I know some people my age don’t understand how bad their parents are actually doing.. these friends parents (and this is mostly a guess) are living off their refinances.. and are cash flow negetaive each month.. I don’t think it’s very hard to tell if someone is losing money each month.. they have lots of credit cards and things that are obviously beyond their means..

As my dad says… “things are just starting to turn around for me!!” (listen to that over the last 20 years and we’ll see if you believe that they are)

[anxvariety]

Probably because all of these condos are being built in the area where I once got a gun pulled on me.

I can’t wait to see these areas revert back to slums with laundry hanging off the patios because welfare doesnt provide enough money for people to use dryers.

[anxvariety]

Powayseller, let me first say.. the writer on that site is AMAZING.. he has a huge list of accolades. I’d reccomend you check out some articles.. They are succinctly titled, and all offer synopsis(that even someone with ADD will love)

The real rough overview from someone who doesnt write much(me).. Zeal LLC are self-described ‘contrarian investors’. I’d say their perspective cautiously aggressive and almost exclusively detailing hard and soft commodities and related companies.

Most of what they are suggesting at this point are.. Mining companies, refineries, drillers, explorers.

They advise on sort of a pyrmaid investing structure depending on what your goals are.. Exactly what the balance is you’d have to read.. but from what I’ve read you’re either trying to keep you dollars safe with modest gains ahead of inflation or you’re a little more speculative/aggressive and are investing in producers of commodities you expect to rise.. Some examples of stocks they have been talking about for a while are NEM, NG, SSRI, URIX..

I’ve read about 10% of what is on that site in total.. so don’t consider my perspective too accurate.. just one persons snapshot.

[anxvariety]

I’m glad that you enjoyed and responded. I really enjoy the site as well.. I was hoping my message didn’t come across as “spammy”.. but the site has so many free essays that well written as you said, I thought it was worth posting..

I’ve only been a member of the subscription for about 6 months.. and have been following his stock picks, and they are pretty damn impressive..

If you get a chance, check out the essay on uranium mining.

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