[aguho]

Chris,

I am not a real estate professional per se.I do not have a real estate license,nor do I work for anyone in any real estate related industry.My wife and I own a business that services The U.S.Navy.However,we have bought and sold some properties in SD County and Maricopa County(Tempe,AZ) as well.In our shopping complex there are 5 real estate/mtg offices and I know all of the brokers and their agents.Also,a number of our clients have spouses that are in the real estate industry.So you could say that I’m surrounded by realtors/mtg.brokers !!! Also, a good friend of ours is a wholesale rep in the mtg.industry.In fact,she is the one who has handled our SD County mtg needs(without a doubt the most ethical mtg.broker that I have met….and I’ve met lots of them)and the only mtg.broker I ever refer anyone to.

Needless to say,I have learned a lot about the real estate and mtg.business during the last 6-7 years.

One thing that I am certain of is when everything starts to really unravel,the ethnic market here in the South Bay specifically the Filipino & Hispanic market will take a bigger hit than everyone else.To many option ARMS,mutiple cash outs,unethical agents/brokers(nothing like getting 3 % on the front AND back end of a loan),and of course buyers who are not fiscally disciplined enough to own a home(stated income and no doc loans errrrrr “liar loans”).

Right now,there are a lot of very nervous realtors/mtg.brokers here in the South Bay.Listings are piling up and no offers.The refi biz is getting tougher as well.Nothing like having your mtg.reset,a flat market since late 2004,and then having to PROVE that you earn 100,000 + per year..

To quote Madness….”Welcome to the House of Fun”

aguho

[aguho]

I anticipate that in 5 years SoCal will be at or near the bottom of the real estate cycle.It could happen faster or take much longer.No one knows for sure.My plan is to buy a couple of properties in Dana Point/San Clemente/Laguna Beach/Newport Beach or Huntington Beach when we get close to the bottom of this real estate cycle.

I’m always telling everyone who comes into our business to put off buying a home for a few years.Save your dough now and you will be rewarded later.Some people listen,but others fall prey to those smooth talking devils who claim that real estate never loses value blah blah blah blah……

aguho

[aguho]

Homey,

There are many others in the same boat as you.The real estate market here in the South Bay has been basically flat since late 2004.We sold our last rental house in I.B. April 2005.It was on the market for 4 months and sold for 505,000.The single woman that bought the property is now trying to sell it.She started at 585,000(LOL)and has reduced it 2 times down to its current price of 515,000.I doubt that she will be able to sell at that price either.She’ll be LUCKY to get 500,000.Either way,this person will be bringing a check to the closing.The only question that remains is how much will she have to bring? We came away from our closing with a check for 120,000.We win she loses.We sold at the top and she bought at the top of this current real estate cycle.

I personally know 3 other people who have homes for sale in Otay Ranch(bought in late 2004)750,00-850,00 range that also will be bringing checks to the closing.That is if in fact they CAN sell them at all.There are an enormous amount of homes for sale in the 91913,91914,91915 zipcodes and many of them have been on the market for a long time.

There is something that all 3 of these folks have in common.That is,each one of them is burned out of paying 4000-5000 a month for a place to sleep.They can’t take it anymore and want out.At least these 3 people want to do the honorable thing and are willing to pay for their mistake at closing.How many others will just walk away from their obligations,or try the fraud route errrrrrrrrrrrrr file bk.

Mr.Homey,I know it’s little consolation to you now,but you did the right thing and honored your obligation.At least your credit is intact and you learned something from this experience.Now,save all your dough for the next 5 years and buy at the bottom of the real estate cycle.There will be lots of great deals waiting for those who have cash and excellent credit.

Moral of the story…….Timing is EVERYTHING !!!!!! If you buy at the top of any market you lose.

aguho

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