[4plexowner]

You pushed my religion button – sorry …

Here’s something I find interesting:

Q: What do you call the time of history when the Church dominated western thinking and government?

A: The Dark Ages

Q: What do you call the time of history that came after the shackles of the Church were thrown off?

A: The Age of Enlightenment

[4plexowner]

Since you brought up religion …

It bugs me tremendously that any lying politician in America can gain 30% of the vote just by claiming to be a born-again Christian.

We are truly in trouble!

We’ve got a religious nutjob in America claiming he is doing God’s work in bringing on Armageddon / The Rapture

And now we’ve got a religious nutjob in Iran claiming he is doing God’s work in bringing on Armageddon / The Rapture

WOW!!!

[4plexowner]

I can’t speak for all goldbugs but I will answer for myself.

Yes – gold is just another commodity.

There are no currencies currently backed by gold. Actually, there are NO non-fiat currencies on planet earth right now. (this is another trend that will mean-revert – ie, we WILL have a precious metals backed currency again)

I don’t claim that gold is money or that gold is tied to any monetary system. What I do point out is that human beings have chosen silver and gold as a store of value for thousands of years. It is also worth noting that governments remain small when a gold standard is used and warfare is limitted and local.

I don’t have to be able to buy anything with silver or gold. Under the current US laws, I can trade silver and gold for US dollars any business day of the week. The transactions are not reportable to the IRS or government as long as certain thresholds are not crossed. I recently traded some silver bullion for a stack of Benjamin Franklins. At some point this summer I will be trading Mr Franklin for silver bullion.

And you actually can make purchases with silver today although it wouldn’t make any sense. If you were willing to spend your 40% or 90% US silver coins at the store you could do so – they are legal coins minted in US mints. A 1963 or earlier silver half is worth 50 cents at the grocery store and about 4 dollars at the coin shop. I’ll take mine to the coin shop.

So, we are in agreement – gold is not money today.

Here’s some pieces of the bigger picture that I see:

> there will be a precious metals backed currency again – it will probably be China or an Asian bloc and it will likely be introduced this decade

> silver and gold don’t change in value – fiat currencies fluctuate in value relative to the precious metals – an ounce of gold in 1910 is still an ounce of gold today – in 1910 the ounce of gold was worth 20 US dollars – today the ounce is worth about 640 US dollars – the gold didn’t change

> Western countries have been sold a load of goods by central bankers – the dishonest monetary system that the banking cartel introduced is starting to fall apart – as the decay becomes more obvious people are moving into the precious metals – look at the upleg gold had from March when the US Fed stopped publishing the M-3 money aggregates – do you think this timing is a coincidince? – this movement into silver and gold will increase in the next few years

> the US dollar is being rejected as the world’s reserve currency

> commodities are in a secular bull market that will run until at least 2011 and probably much longer

> gold will be at least $1650 an ounce before the commodities bull is done

> silver will be at least $80 an ounce

[4plexowner]

Because it isn’t “news” – it is sales pitch. Salespeople don’t need math skills – they just have to be able to deliver BS with a sincere look on their face.

George Ure at http://www.urbansurvival.com talks about ‘corpgov’.

He maintains that the government is currently being run for the benefit of corporations and NOT for the benefit of citizens.

If you accept this premise (and I do), then it is not reasonable to expect the truth from anyone in government or in industry.

Government and industry wonks will be ‘talking their book’ with the intent of benefitting themselves and the special interests that they represent.

People in the real estate industry are doing lots of ‘talking their book’ right now. Examples are everywhere:
> NAR saying that rents will rise 5%
> loan brokers rationalizing ARMs, IOs, etc
> realtors saying that “there has never been a better time to buy”

Understand how these people are motivated and it becomes less frustrating to listen to the BS that they are spouting 24/7.

Not understanding how these people are motivated and acting on their advice is a good way to lose money since they don’t have your best interests at heart.

[4plexowner]

And how do the changes in the bankruptcy laws affect these people when they try to clean up their financial mess?

Federal taxes that are owed due to a short sale of real estate won’t be written off in a bk.

Means testing will be applied as part of the bk process.

I have read (but haven’t confirmed) that NO credit card debt can be written off in bk after the changes in 2005. Can anyone confirm this?

My point is that the changes made to the bk laws in 2005 will make it harder for people to clean up their financial lives and move on.

[4plexowner]

Put yourself in the shoes of the housing industry or the government.

While you are standing in those shoes imagine what would happen if you told the truth.

The truth might sound something like this: “The city of San Diego has allowed several thousand too many condos to be built in downtown. Since there is no fundamental demand for these units, they will languish on the market. The condo builders will reduce the prices on these units until they sell. Homeowners trying to sell will be undercut by the builders who have more ability and incentive to lower prices. Anyone buying a condo downtown at today’s prices should expect to be upside down very quickly and most likely end up losing money. A large percentage of these excess condos will ultimately become rentals and will probably depress the rental market.”

How do you think this news would go over? How long do you think you would keep your job?

Ever heard the expression, “Don’t shoot the messenger?” – you would not want to be the messenger delivering this news.

[4plexowner]

for you Star Trek fans:

Resistance is futile.

Your paper equity will be assimilated.

Your house will be added to The Collective Inventory of Unsold Houses That Will Ultimately Become Rentals.

You will adapt to service your debt to The Collective Bank for the rest of your life.

Resistance is futile.

[4plexowner]

My rental units were not high-end houses like you will be looking for. I rented apartments and houses in the $600-2100/month range.

My favorite tenants were military people. I rented a Normal Hts house to a Navy seal and his wife and I rented apartments in IB and Pt Loma to any number of enlisted people.

I knew that these people were receiving a big chunk of money every month that was specifically for housing.

The housing allotment allowed them to pay rent and I felt like I had Uncle Sam covering my back if my military tenant caused any problems (hopefully not an issue when renting to officers).

Only once did I have to threaten to call an enlisted person’s chain of command and the threat accomplished my objective.

[4plexowner]

George Ure at http://www.urbansurvival.com believes we are currently in year 3 of the 2nd Great Depression.

The real estate crash is just part of the overall economic decline.

So we need a REALLY BIG title for the global economic meltdown that may be underway.

Perhaps the “Great Economic Meltdown”?

After all the fools have been separated from their money and the un-payable debts have been wiped away, I hope we will be talking about “The Age of Financial Reason”.

[4plexowner]

One of the absurdities of our country today:

We have 138,000 troops in Iraq right now wearing Chinese boots.

America can not supply her troops with footgear without depending on imports from other countries.

And the saber-rattling just started this week against China!

The nuts have definitely taken over the nut-house!!!

[4plexowner]

I’d sign the lease. We have some time before the glut of rentals (if it occurs) is going to affect the type of housing that you are living in (single-family, nice neighborhood, decent public schools, etc).

The condo market always declines first. It will be hit particularly hard because of the excessive building downtown. Watch rental prices for condos as a leading indicator.

If rents do drop significantly during your lease term you can renegotiate or pay the penalty to break the lease. A smart landlord is going to keep a good tenant.

[4plexowner]

It only dawned on me this week how significant it is that some 40% of the housing purchased in the last 24 months was purchased as investments and 2nd homes.

That’s a lot of houses / condos being purchased by people who have no intention of living in them as their primary residence.

Many of these housing units are currently sitting vacant. This is important because some real estate analysts assume that when a housing unit is sold, the seller will HAVE to either buy or rent another unit.

What happens to these houses / condos when the market softens?

I believe most of them (maybe 70% ?)will end up on the market for sale. A lot of these sales are likely to be motivated by fear and desperation.

The housing units that don’t sell will go back to the bank or become rentals.

Banks don’t like to own residential real estate so they will be dumping housing onto the market at motivated prices. These units are likely to be purchased by investors for resale or rental.

It will take some time (12-24 months?), but I believe the local rental market will have a glut of new units being offered. Rents should drop as landlords compete to attract tenants.

But the really significant point that I hadn’t realized until this week is this: if 40% of the housing purchased in the last 2 years was purchased by investors/2nd-home-buyers, when those people STOP buying, 40% of the DEMAND FOR HOUSING GOES AWAY.

That means the motivated sales of housing units is occurring in a market where demand has dropped by 40%!

[4plexowner]

Opening oil markets that trade in non-USD is just one example of how the international players are rejecting the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Whether it is Iraq, Iran or Russia, it is not good for the US dollar.

The US has become loathed by most of the non-English speaking countries of the world (thank you, Mr. Bush). Since they can’t compete with us militarily they will attempt to destroy us financially.

Unfortunately, because of the financial games the US has been playing for decades, the US dollar and US economy are at a very vulnerable point.

Our enemies know that the US dollar is America’s achilles heal and they are attacking it.

[4plexowner]

There are no non-fiat currencies in the world today.

Switching from the USD to other currencies is not a bad idea – just realize that you are moving from one sinking boat to another sinking boat.

I would focus on the commodity producing countries (Canada, New Zealand, Australia) – they have RELATIVELY better economies than the US (they actually export real stuff – all the US exports is debt and gunboat democracy).

As a goldbug, when I switch out of USD I am moving into silver and gold (the only REAL money). (and they happen to be in a secular bull market besides!!!)

[4plexowner]

Never mind

[Author]

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