You piggies make me sick.

[Navydoc]

“The fact is there are a lot of people who bought homes near the top of the last cycle who weren’t just out to make a quick buck, who didn’t refinance multiple times to go on nice vacations and drive a fancy car — they just wanted to own a home”

You’re right, they weren’t out to make a quick buck–they were, however, buying houses THEY COULDN’T REALLY AFFORD if fundamentals are observed. Our “crowing” or grunting, or whatever sound vultures make, relates to the fact that we who are financially responsible MAY actually be able to afford homes we have SAVED for. Good GOD! Saving? What is this “saving” of which thou speaks?

Unfortunately, and this is really unfortunate, a great deal of people need to suffer in order for prices to come back to earth. This includes the idyllic people you speak of who just thought they were being priced out, as well as the irresponsible scumbags who WERE out to make a quick buck. Some nice but ignornant people will be harmed by this correction, but that doesn’t make the correction any less necessary.

As far as how low we can go, nobody really knows. We all have our guesses, but I can tell you that if I can find a home I really like in the $600-850K range that I plan to stay in for the rest of my life, I would buy no matter what the market is doing. Unfortunately what I really like is $950-1500K right now. Are these reductions possible? I don’t know, but I plan to circle above until I see them. If I don’t, we’re perfectly happy to continue renting. The view while circling above is really nice.

And for those folks who think we shouldn’t feed the trolls, posts like these are really important. When I was lurking on this board it was the reactions to trolls that taught me the most about this market, and I have to admit, I still get a huge kick out of responding to a troll.

[temeculaguy]

Navy, you can feed them, you are right, it sometimes brings out some good discussions. For instance sdnerd’s question about percentage of decline and markets further down the tracks on the pain train’s route. Sdnerd, it is a logical theory but it doesn’t work like that, what you will see is a shorter downturn, but the percentages will be similar. There will be some examples of value holding but history tells us that there is no immunity. If during housing booms, certain areas did not correct then when the next boom comes along they wouldn’t be able to rise or today they would be completely out of whack, which they aren’t. Certain pockets will avoid revealing their reduced value because of their age and stability so they will appear to “sit out” the downturn. Not whole towns but small areas and ultra premium coastal or “one of a kind” type places.

But do not for one minute think that the pain train isn’t building steam and has planned stops in even the best of places, it has more fuel than ever before, it will not run out gas before it hits the coast. While an area might have higher stability, higher income, lower subprime ratios so it has done fine so far, when the train does come to town there will be other factors that will work against it and will work to level the playing field percentage wise. The first hit areas did so when liar loans were still plentiful, the economy was fine and the masses were still ignorant of the bubble. When the more expensive areas feel the full power of the force, many factors will be different,those factors are:
-The media and anyone with a radio is well aware of the downturn in housing.
-Banks are tighter with their money
-full doc and downpayments are the order of the day
-employment and overall economy will be worse off
-much cheaper houses will be available much closer, and closer and closer.

The last one goes back to Bugs’ original theory of interconnectivity which we are already seeing.

[temeculaguy]

Navy, you can feed them, you are right, it sometimes brings out some good discussions. For instance sdnerd’s question about percentage of decline and markets further down the tracks on the pain train’s route. Sdnerd, it is a logical theory but it doesn’t work like that, what you will see is a shorter downturn, but the percentages will be similar. There will be some examples of value holding but history tells us that there is no immunity. If during housing booms, certain areas did not correct then when the next boom comes along they wouldn’t be able to rise or today they would be completely out of whack, which they aren’t. Certain pockets will avoid revealing their reduced value because of their age and stability so they will appear to “sit out” the downturn. Not whole towns but small areas and ultra premium coastal or “one of a kind” type places.

But do not for one minute think that the pain train isn’t building steam and has planned stops in even the best of places, it has more fuel than ever before, it will not run out gas before it hits the coast. While an area might have higher stability, higher income, lower subprime ratios so it has done fine so far, when the train does come to town there will be other factors that will work against it and will work to level the playing field percentage wise. The first hit areas did so when liar loans were still plentiful, the economy was fine and the masses were still ignorant of the bubble. When the more expensive areas feel the full power of the force, many factors will be different,those factors are:
-The media and anyone with a radio is well aware of the downturn in housing.
-Banks are tighter with their money
-full doc and downpayments are the order of the day
-employment and overall economy will be worse off
-much cheaper houses will be available much closer, and closer and closer.

The last one goes back to Bugs’ original theory of interconnectivity which we are already seeing.

[temeculaguy]

Navy, you can feed them, you are right, it sometimes brings out some good discussions. For instance sdnerd’s question about percentage of decline and markets further down the tracks on the pain train’s route. Sdnerd, it is a logical theory but it doesn’t work like that, what you will see is a shorter downturn, but the percentages will be similar. There will be some examples of value holding but history tells us that there is no immunity. If during housing booms, certain areas did not correct then when the next boom comes along they wouldn’t be able to rise or today they would be completely out of whack, which they aren’t. Certain pockets will avoid revealing their reduced value because of their age and stability so they will appear to “sit out” the downturn. Not whole towns but small areas and ultra premium coastal or “one of a kind” type places.

But do not for one minute think that the pain train isn’t building steam and has planned stops in even the best of places, it has more fuel than ever before, it will not run out gas before it hits the coast. While an area might have higher stability, higher income, lower subprime ratios so it has done fine so far, when the train does come to town there will be other factors that will work against it and will work to level the playing field percentage wise. The first hit areas did so when liar loans were still plentiful, the economy was fine and the masses were still ignorant of the bubble. When the more expensive areas feel the full power of the force, many factors will be different,those factors are:
-The media and anyone with a radio is well aware of the downturn in housing.
-Banks are tighter with their money
-full doc and downpayments are the order of the day
-employment and overall economy will be worse off
-much cheaper houses will be available much closer, and closer and closer.

The last one goes back to Bugs’ original theory of interconnectivity which we are already seeing.

[temeculaguy]

Navy, you can feed them, you are right, it sometimes brings out some good discussions. For instance sdnerd’s question about percentage of decline and markets further down the tracks on the pain train’s route. Sdnerd, it is a logical theory but it doesn’t work like that, what you will see is a shorter downturn, but the percentages will be similar. There will be some examples of value holding but history tells us that there is no immunity. If during housing booms, certain areas did not correct then when the next boom comes along they wouldn’t be able to rise or today they would be completely out of whack, which they aren’t. Certain pockets will avoid revealing their reduced value because of their age and stability so they will appear to “sit out” the downturn. Not whole towns but small areas and ultra premium coastal or “one of a kind” type places.

But do not for one minute think that the pain train isn’t building steam and has planned stops in even the best of places, it has more fuel than ever before, it will not run out gas before it hits the coast. While an area might have higher stability, higher income, lower subprime ratios so it has done fine so far, when the train does come to town there will be other factors that will work against it and will work to level the playing field percentage wise. The first hit areas did so when liar loans were still plentiful, the economy was fine and the masses were still ignorant of the bubble. When the more expensive areas feel the full power of the force, many factors will be different,those factors are:
-The media and anyone with a radio is well aware of the downturn in housing.
-Banks are tighter with their money
-full doc and downpayments are the order of the day
-employment and overall economy will be worse off
-much cheaper houses will be available much closer, and closer and closer.

The last one goes back to Bugs’ original theory of interconnectivity which we are already seeing.

[temeculaguy]

Navy, you can feed them, you are right, it sometimes brings out some good discussions. For instance sdnerd’s question about percentage of decline and markets further down the tracks on the pain train’s route. Sdnerd, it is a logical theory but it doesn’t work like that, what you will see is a shorter downturn, but the percentages will be similar. There will be some examples of value holding but history tells us that there is no immunity. If during housing booms, certain areas did not correct then when the next boom comes along they wouldn’t be able to rise or today they would be completely out of whack, which they aren’t. Certain pockets will avoid revealing their reduced value because of their age and stability so they will appear to “sit out” the downturn. Not whole towns but small areas and ultra premium coastal or “one of a kind” type places.

But do not for one minute think that the pain train isn’t building steam and has planned stops in even the best of places, it has more fuel than ever before, it will not run out gas before it hits the coast. While an area might have higher stability, higher income, lower subprime ratios so it has done fine so far, when the train does come to town there will be other factors that will work against it and will work to level the playing field percentage wise. The first hit areas did so when liar loans were still plentiful, the economy was fine and the masses were still ignorant of the bubble. When the more expensive areas feel the full power of the force, many factors will be different,those factors are:
-The media and anyone with a radio is well aware of the downturn in housing.
-Banks are tighter with their money
-full doc and downpayments are the order of the day
-employment and overall economy will be worse off
-much cheaper houses will be available much closer, and closer and closer.

The last one goes back to Bugs’ original theory of interconnectivity which we are already seeing.

[CDMA ENG]

CDMA ENG…

VERY GOOD Qwerty!

But now a Haiku???

Take Care

CE

[CDMA ENG]

CDMA ENG…

VERY GOOD Qwerty!

But now a Haiku???

Take Care

CE

[CDMA ENG]

CDMA ENG…

VERY GOOD Qwerty!

But now a Haiku???

Take Care

CE

[CDMA ENG]

CDMA ENG…

VERY GOOD Qwerty!

But now a Haiku???

Take Care

CE

[CDMA ENG]

CDMA ENG…

VERY GOOD Qwerty!

But now a Haiku???

Take Care

CE

[patientlywaiting]

sdnerd wrote:
It’s all connected, but as it works it’s way in the price declines will probably decrease.

*

No, that’s not how it worked in the 90s. Don’t delude yourself that the higher cost neighborhoods will be insulated.

The percentage decline was the same for all areas. The difference is the timing of the percentage price drops, and then the rate of appreciation afterwards.

Bugs is right…. It’s all connected. If you look at it over a longer horizon, the percentage declines and appreciation were the same for nearly all neighborhoods. (Downtown SD was different because the CCDC was at work pumping massive amounts of redevelopment money into the area.)

[patientlywaiting]

sdnerd wrote:
It’s all connected, but as it works it’s way in the price declines will probably decrease.

*

No, that’s not how it worked in the 90s. Don’t delude yourself that the higher cost neighborhoods will be insulated.

The percentage decline was the same for all areas. The difference is the timing of the percentage price drops, and then the rate of appreciation afterwards.

Bugs is right…. It’s all connected. If you look at it over a longer horizon, the percentage declines and appreciation were the same for nearly all neighborhoods. (Downtown SD was different because the CCDC was at work pumping massive amounts of redevelopment money into the area.)

[patientlywaiting]

sdnerd wrote:
It’s all connected, but as it works it’s way in the price declines will probably decrease.

*

No, that’s not how it worked in the 90s. Don’t delude yourself that the higher cost neighborhoods will be insulated.

The percentage decline was the same for all areas. The difference is the timing of the percentage price drops, and then the rate of appreciation afterwards.

Bugs is right…. It’s all connected. If you look at it over a longer horizon, the percentage declines and appreciation were the same for nearly all neighborhoods. (Downtown SD was different because the CCDC was at work pumping massive amounts of redevelopment money into the area.)

[patientlywaiting]

sdnerd wrote:
It’s all connected, but as it works it’s way in the price declines will probably decrease.

*

No, that’s not how it worked in the 90s. Don’t delude yourself that the higher cost neighborhoods will be insulated.

The percentage decline was the same for all areas. The difference is the timing of the percentage price drops, and then the rate of appreciation afterwards.

Bugs is right…. It’s all connected. If you look at it over a longer horizon, the percentage declines and appreciation were the same for nearly all neighborhoods. (Downtown SD was different because the CCDC was at work pumping massive amounts of redevelopment money into the area.)

[Author]

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