World’s biggest real estate binge

[flyer]

“San Diego County gained an estimated 11,600 residents through foreign migration but lost about 8,700 people due to “domestic migration” — individuals who relocated to other parts of the country — resulting in a net positive migration of about 3,000 people, according to the finance department.”

The Trulia article I posted may not have reflected the net mentioned above, but it’s still very interesting that we lost 8,700 people due to “domestic migration,” with a net of only 3K out of 11,600, and that’s just in San Diego.

[The-Shoveler]

Shanghai RE went up about 35% last year,
I should bring up the thread from last year where people were saying China was going to crash and burn and I was saying no don’t think so, CHINA IS THE BANK.

Anyway If they can get the money out they will be buying USA RE IMO.

Even without inbound migration the Birth death ratio is still out pacing new home construction.

[Coronita]

[quote=flyer]”San Diego County gained an estimated 11,600 residents through foreign migration but lost about 8,700 people due to “domestic migration” — individuals who relocated to other parts of the country — resulting in a net positive migration of about 3,000 people, according to the finance department.”

The Trulia article I posted may not have reflected the net mentioned above, but it’s still very interesting that we lost 8,700 people due to “domestic migration,” with a net of only 3K out of 11,600, and that’s just in San Diego.[/quote]

I’m not surprised at all. Like most of the metro hotspots in CA, we are seeing a transformation in the economy/growth across CA. Some will benefit from this growth, others won’t. And for some, it makes sense to live where this isn’t happening.

We’ll have the spillover effect soon, as folks from NorCal and LA, think it’s more affordable down here.

I thought this was kind of funny to be running these in NorCal…. Deja vu…

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/technology/sd-fi-sdvg-poach-20161116-story.html

North County will end up being like Irvine, imho.

Here’s the group organizing this..

Tacos and Tech | The First #UltimateLifeHack Event

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=flu]
North County will end up being like Irvine, imho.
/quote]

I find it amazing how fast Carlsbad and surrounds are changing.

IMO you are right.

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=flu]
North County will end up being like Irvine, imho.
/quote]

I find it amazing how fast Carlsbad and surrounds are changing.

IMO you are right.[/quote]

There are a few folks that I know commute from Irvine to Carlsbad. About 1.25 hrs drive each way. The only question is if and how deep the tech industry gets hit over the next 4 years. That said, even when the tech industry did get hit by the dot com implosion, san diego didn’t do that bad relative to NorCal. In fact, we had some migrant from north to south because of the dot com implosion.

I seriously doubt Intuit will be going away anytime soon. Boring tech, but when you’re jobless, beggars can’t be choosers. And pay has always been good.

[spdrun]

flyer: that’s good that population growth is only 0.1% per year.

The fact that population would be shrinking without immigration is typical for many coastal places. NY and NJ are the same way, I think.

[spdrun]

flu: has the state/county considered electrification and improvements on the coast rail like from San Diego to points north? Seems like Carlsbad-Irvine would be a good commute by transit if the workplace was within a mile or so of the station.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]flu: has the state/county considered electrification and improvements on the coast rail like from San Diego to points north? Seems like Carlsbad-Irvine would be a good commute by transit if the workplace was within a mile or so of the station.[/quote]

You know how fast a bureaucratic state like CA is:)

I think the folks that commute from irvine, however, all have EV cars that allows them to be in the carpool lane. Plus my company has free charging stations once they get to work.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=flyer]”San Diego County gained an estimated 11,600 residents through foreign migration but lost about 8,700 people due to “domestic migration” — individuals who relocated to other parts of the country — resulting in a net positive migration of about 3,000 people, according to the finance department.”

The Trulia article I posted may not have reflected the net mentioned above, but it’s still very interesting that we lost 8,700 people due to “domestic migration,” with a net of only 3K out of 11,600, and that’s just in San Diego.[/quote]flyer, I looked at the charts in your trulia article, which, IMO, were a bit confusing. I’m not seeing domestic “out-migration” from where I sit but my area is full of very well-established senior citizens and younger retirees who were/are longtime business owners, as well as longtime property owners. Some of them now have at least one of their kids working in the “family business.” I’m speaking of the “free-and-clear” personal residence crowd (which is present in every single well-established city in CA) who many also own other local properties, including multi-family residential and commercial.

I strongly suspect the SD out-migration figure in Trulia’s chart is representative of families with minor children who moved here in the past 15 years without the ability to purchase a home and thus never really got established here and/or they are straggling homedebtors from the “Great Recession of the Aughts” whose 5 and 8 year (exotic) Option ARMS recently reset to a level they couldn’t pay every month so they are walking away from their mortgages. In that case, they never should have purchased a home they couldn’t afford in the first place. Another reason younger residents move out of a CA coastal county is that they have unrealistic expectations of the type of living arrangement they feel they should be able to afford on their income(s) versus the reality of what they actually can afford and they end up shopping online in a distant, lesser-expensive locale, realize they can get the type of home (rental or purchase) that they want there and secure a job there . . . very often not realizing, of course, that there are other drawbacks to the new locale that they didn’t consider when making their decision :=0

In other words, you pay for what you get in this life.

I’m using “families with minor children” in my out-migration example because this type of household is most vulnerable to overspending and debt (I maintain that one can raise kids on much less than a lot of other people do), which leads them to a situation where they must make hard choices about their living situation. In any case, this type of household does not typically reside in the well-established, urban areas of SD County unless one or both of the parents in the household grew up in the immediate area.

[gzz]

The Census link is very bullish. 0.9% growth in SD County and 1.5% growth in SD City in just one year.

Desired household growth is probably even faster due to population aging.

Meanwhile what is the growth rate of SD City housing stock? I’d guess in OB proper something like 0.1% a year due to infill and tear downs. But normal rental supply is falling due to AirBNB, including the house I rented on a normal lease when I moved here a long time ago, and switched to AirBNB 2 years ago. The number of properties with room for and zoned for a back unit is dwindling each year too.

The Dylan apartment complex did add a lot of supply in Loma Portal as it replaced a former school site and is pretty big. All of it consists of smaller and high priced units however. Midway and Loma Portal seem to have a few more underdeveloped lots that could be turned into apartment complexes. The old hospital on Wing St is being turned into a language school for visiting students.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=gzz]The Census link is very bullish. 0.9% growth in SD County and 1.5% growth in SD City in just one year.

Desired household growth is probably even faster due to population aging.

Meanwhile what is the growth rate of SD City housing stock? I’d guess in OB proper something like 0.1% a year due to infill. The Dylan apartment complex did add a lot of supply in Loma Portal as it replaced a former school site and is pretty big. All of it consists of smaller and high priced units however.[/quote]gzz, I haven’t cruised the Loma Portal area for almost two years now. Per chance, was that the Dewey Elementary site that was built on (serving a large military housing complex)? And were any of the newly-built units set aside for Section 8 (or their rents adjusted to the income of local worker bees)? Just curious.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=gzz]. . . Midway and Loma Portal seem to have a few more underdeveloped lots that could be turned into apartment complexes. The old hospital on Wing St is being turned into a language school for visiting students.[/quote]That’s interesting about the old hospital, gzz. However, a language center doesn’t seem to me to be the “highest and best use” of a multistory building with its own parking just ~4 miles from the beach. That empty land you’re referring to (on/off Midway Drive?) is mostly owned by the GSA (Federal Gov’mt) who used to lease it to rental car companies for their “drive-away storage lots.” It is zoned commercial and won’t be developed unless the gubment decides to part with it.

[bearishgurl]

If SD newcomers want to buy/rent a *new* dwelling upon their arrival here, they’re not likely going to find one in central SD unless it is a small condo (with elevators, etc, and high HOA dues).

[spdrun]

bearishgurl: an old hospital building with multi-person rooms seems like a pretty good candidate for conversion into a school.

[Escoguy]

more like 0.8% growth last year,

http://www.cw6sandiego.com/san-diego-was-number-2-in-population-growth-for-california-in-2015/

30K population growth has been very typical the past few years.

The region, with a current population of about 3.3 million residents, grew by an estimated 28,000 people — or 0.9 percent — between July 2014 and July 2015, according to estimates released in December by the state’s Department of Finance.

I think the 3K net migration is poorly written as the net growth is much higher.[img_assist|nid=26113|title=population|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=83]

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