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bearishgurl.
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November 18, 2016 at 3:50 PM #803845November 18, 2016 at 5:47 PM #803847
FlyerInHi
GuestEscoguy, my friend in OC tells me Korean executives (who rotate in for all
the Korean companies) in OC buy lots of houses. And Vietnamese also, not Vietnamese-American refugees, but rich business people from Vietnam, which is turning into a mini China.November 18, 2016 at 6:56 PM #803848bearishgurl
ParticipantEsco, your chart from whatever document you say it came from says that 23% (or 6108 of UCSD’s 26,590 enrolled undergrads) in (Fall) 2015 were from OOS and OOC. 17% (or 4407 students) were from San Diego County. 36% (or 9478 students) were from LA, Orange, Ventura and IE Counties. 16% (or 4343 students) were from SF Bay area counties. 8% (or 2254 students) in (Fall) 2015 were from CA (other) including Sac area and rural/agricultural CA (totaling 100%).
There is something wrong with that picture.
SF Bay area residents have SFSU, SJSU, UCB (Cal flagship), CSUEB (with a HUGE Concord extension)! That’s 4+ public campuses serving their home county undergrads PLUS proximity of commuting to UCD and CSU Sonoma to some Solano and Contra Costa County residents. Yet, 4407 of the residents of these counties were attending UCSD in Fall 2015.
LA/OC and IE residents have 9 public universities to choose from: CSULB (flagship), CSUF, CSUDH, CPP, CSUSB, CSUN and UCI, UCLA (flagship) and UCR. Yet, 9,478 of the residents of these counties were attending UCSD in Fall 2015.
Sac Delta and rural CA residents attending UCSD (2254 of them in Fall 2015) have campuses closer to their home base than UCSD, yet they are enrolled at UCSD. I DO understand that the public campus(es) closer to their homes may not have the degree programs they are seeking. I know how the CSU and UC application processes work and that the applicants must list a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and even 4th thru 6th choice to increase their odds of being admitted. But it shouldn’t have to be this way for qualified CA-resident applicants! Although my own kids were able to attend CA public universities out of county (only because they couldn’t get admitted to SDSU and weren’t qualified to apply to UC) and we were able to pay for their housing, the vast majority of families can’t afford housing! It’s really tough for these kids and I hear a lot of sob stories, including kids with Associate Degrees, one who graduated on the Dean’s list at SWC (a CC) who can’t seem to get admitted as a junior at SDSU and UCSD … the reason being that they are giving too many slots away to out of county, out of state and out of country applicants (both freshman and junior slots)! It’s morally reprehensible. Qualified applicants who are American citizens or who have legal citizenship and completed their K-12 education in CA public schools deserve to be given a fair shake in the application process of their home county public university BEFORE accepting a slot at a distant campus from their home. If they turn it down in favor of accepting an offer of admission from a distant campus, fine. But it should be OFFERED to them.
I can think of 6-8 other states off-hand where this would never happen. No way, no how … hell, no! Their OWN QUALIFIED IN-STATE HS GRADUATES come FIRST in the freshman selection process at their public universities. PERIOD. ESPecially the rural HS graduates who may have even been bussed to ONE K-12 public school all of their lives … with no access to AP offerings! It’s only fair and that’s the way it should be.
The Regents and the CSU Board are corrupt. The CA Education Code sections addressing the “selection process” of students at UC/CSU needs to be gone over with a fine-toothed comb by an enterprising legislator, gutted and replaced with very specific language on how the selection process should go, step by step and placed before the Legislature ASAP. The “vague” sections giving the Regents and the Board way too much leeway in admissions need to be shored up pronto. We have sold most of our Native Cali young people (fresh out of HS) down the river in the past ten years and the results are not pretty.
In the absence of law stating otherwise, the Regents and the Board will continue to do whatever they please. And our kids will continue to flail around working for $2 over minimum wage at Pep Boys at age 30 while living with mom and/or dad with their (now 10-year old) worthless Associate Degree they earned at CC when they were “following all the rules laid out for them to get admitted to University.”
November 19, 2016 at 10:32 AM #803849scaredyclassic
Participantmiddle kid just got back for thansgiving break. man, he seems older. making me feel elderly and frail and slow.
November 19, 2016 at 11:53 AM #803851Escoguy
Participantbg
the source of the data is:
UC San Diego’s Office of Student Research and Information is part of the university’s Academic Affairs division, and the official source for all undergraduate student admission, enrollment, and graduation statistics.
November 19, 2016 at 12:26 PM #803852Participant[quote=Escoguy]bg
the source of the data is:
UC San Diego’s Office of Student Research and Information is part of the university’s Academic Affairs division, and the official source for all undergraduate student admission, enrollment, and graduation statistics.
http://studentresearch.ucsd.edu[/quote%5D6108, to be exact and we haven’t seen the Fall 2016 enrollment statistics.
The Chinese (“rich” solely due to OUR bad trade decisions) wants to send their kids to CA public universities because THEY POLLUTED their OWN urban centers while trying to get “rich” off our dime. They succeeded in both. Now that want to take thousands of our (coveted) UC seats. We don’t owe these students a damn thing. Screw them and all other international students. Ban out-of-state admissions to under 200 in each campus (including all four years). That’s roughly 50-75 freshman admissions granted to OOS (LEGAL American) students per year for each campus (allowing for upperclassmen dropouts and transfer-outs). The coveted UC system should be reserved for QUALIFIED Cali Native/US CITIZENS, preferably those who attended all 13 years of K-12 grades in CA (who have admitting priority over new move-ins during HS). There are way more than enough QUALIFIED STUDENTS in this category to fill all nine campuses and then some. These kids are suffering as indigent adults with HS Diplomas, overpriced, worthless “certificates” from for-profit occupational schools and worthless “Associate of Transfer” degrees from CC which were designed solely to get them admitted to UC/CSU. But their local public university campuses turned them down for admission over accepting (often lesser-qualified) non-deserving, non-residents. The OOS tuition money will have to come from somewhere else. All over Cali, we have an entire generation of young adults who can’t get living wage jobs and can’t get admitted to their local public university (so matter HOW many rules they followed explicitly to get there) and it didn’t used to be this way in CA. And on and off campus housing didn’t used to be as exorbitantly-priced as it is now.
Esco, I don’t know why you are so bullish on incoming Chinese RE investors in CA. If they don’t have their papers already in order, I fail to see how droves of them are going to keep coming here to buy RE, especially if they are buying it for a future home for their so-called future UC college student and their admission rules change favoring LEGAL Cali residents and other AMERICANS.
I agree with XBoxBoy. I think Trump’s immigration plan is going to stem the tide of America giving away the store to foreigners and their interests. Eff ’em. This is OUR country, OUR state and OUR coveted university system(s). It’s not CA’s responsibility to educate the world on the backs of our OWN citizens!
If an American can’t go to MX or China and buy real estate (AND own the land it sits on) without a Chinese citizen or Mexican National on title with them, they why are THEY allowed to come over here and buy up ours (as NON-citizens), thereby driving up RE prices for natives? Enough is enough.
November 19, 2016 at 6:05 PM #803854GuestBecause we believe in the free markets and foreigners buying our assets make the assets we own more valuable.
Education is a huge “export” business for us, just like tourism or medical tourism for rich people.
November 19, 2016 at 6:51 PM #803855Participantbg
I’m simply pointing out reality. This market has tailwinds which we haven’t seen before. There are some negatives, but before anyone makes a decision to cash out of the market and hope for prices to collapse, they need to be aware of the overall environment.
Respectfully, perhaps the title bearishgurl is outdated. There was a time to be a bear but that time is not now. If you wish to ignore facts and want to imply that being bearish is a rational position, that’s up to you.
For many readers, the flood of Chinese capital into the US may not be immediately obvious, so I’m pointing it out as a reason to be careful when transacting. Please have a plan if you sell, as the market may not offer meaningful bargains in the future. The key idea is that with this level of capital coming in, any downturn would be short lived and nothing near the scale of the last downturn.
Do keep in mind that many immigrants marry locally and get correct papers either via family or with green cards, H1B visas. There are numerous investor programs which Trump also profited from to bring in Chinese investors, so don’t be naive and think this will slow down any time soon.
I really feel like this is a shoot the messenger situation and I don’t understand why you’re reacting to a normal discussion about the real estate market. Today it is the Chinese, tomorrow India or one of 20 other countries with populations over 50 million. The simple point is that of the 7 billion people in the world, many want to live here and will find a way to come, when they do, they will buy property and prices will continue to rise.
I’d suggest you drive for Uber a few weeks and meet some of these people coming here from all over the world, it may broaden your perspective of the positive impacts when you see the quality of the people.
November 19, 2016 at 7:32 PM #803856
CoronitaParticipant….lol….never mind. My predict-o-meter hasn’t been very reliable lately…
That said, 30 year is more than 4%. I’d say that + ARM reset has a bigger effect on home prices than a clampdown on chinese buyers…Especially in border cities where I seriously doubt the chinese are looking anyway…
November 19, 2016 at 9:34 PM #803857Participantmaybe the solution is to raise out of state tuition to levels that produce a profit and can subsidize expansion for CA students.
why not $120k a year for out of state tuition. or 175k for foreigners? or hell, 250k a year for uc, 219k for cal state? if theyre loaded, whats the difference? at the very least it should cost the same as a top pvt school. we should find outvwhat the market will bear maybe we can find 500 chinese people who will pay 2 million each for a degree. is a billion enough to run the whole shebang?
wait…similar to bidding up property prices, we can auction off a set number of uc seats worldwide, no min. qualification. pay all 4 yrs upfront. no refund if u fail out, grade foreigners on a curve and kick out 1/3 of the class every year!! haha! like old school law schools!! then we can find out exactly what its worth.
ebay.
im guessing its well over 100k a year. why in the hell would we charge less than they are willing to pay????
if each chinese dude was ponying up 2 million for a degree, maybe we could give scholarships to everyone….
make it illegal for student visa holders to pay less than 500k a year to study here in ca, so pvt schools cant compete on price. thats what it costs, baby. pay to play…
November 19, 2016 at 9:45 PM #803858CoronitaParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic]maybe the solution is to raise out of state tuition to levels that produce a profit and can subsidize expansion for CA students.
why not $120k a year for out of state tuition. or 175k for foreigners? or hell, 250k a year for uc, 219k for cal state? if theyre loaded, whats the difference? at the very least it should cost the same as a top pvt school. we should find outvwhat the market will bear maybe we can find 500 chinese people who will pay 2 million each for a degree. is a billion enough to run the whole shebang?
wait…similar to bidding up property prices, we can auction off a set number of uc seats worldwide, no min. qualification. pay all 4 yrs upfront. no refund if u fail out, grade foreigners on a curve and kick out 1/3 of the class every year!! haha! like old school law schools!! then we can find out exactly what its worth.
ebay.
im guessing its well over 100k a year. why in the hell would we charge less than they are willing to pay????
if each chinese dude was ponying up 2 million for a degree, maybe we could give scholarships to everyone….
make it illegal for student visa holders to pay less than 500k a year to study here in ca, so pvt schools cant compete on price. thats what it costs, baby. pay to play…[/quote]
Why don’t we rate tuition based on someone’s academic performance? Low performing students need to subsidize and pay more tuition versus high performing students…If you think about it, it makes sense. More resources need to be spent teaching underachieving students. Therefore, college tuition should be based on one’s grades. Someone with a 4.0 gets almost a free ride. Someone that gets a 2.7, pays for most everyone else’s tuition. Now of course, the weighting would be weighed. Clearly an A+ in Religious Studies wouldn’t necessarily carry the same weight as a B- in Organic Chemistry.
In a lot of ways, this is how the rest of our society works. In the private sector, your bonus/raise is often dependent based on your performance.
(just kidding…sort of)
November 19, 2016 at 11:00 PM #803859GuestScaredy, not bad ideas…. but there is competition from around the world. Germany is tuition free even for foreign students.
There is also soft power interests in having foreign students come here to study so we can influence the world to our way of life. It’s to our interest that influencial people studied in USA as young impressionable adults.
Charge too much and they will develop their own universities, which they are already doing.
November 19, 2016 at 11:19 PM #803860Participantebay the degree
November 20, 2016 at 6:14 PM #803877flyer
ParticipantRegarding the re binge topic, this article gives an interesting perspective. With only about about 16.5% of households in San Diego (with comparably low percentages in other major cities) earning more than $150K, no wonder people are moving.
Also interesting to note that the highest out migration from the most desirable cities is in the 18-54 age group across all income levels.
November 21, 2016 at 3:09 AM #803885CoronitaParticipant[quote=flyer]Regarding the re binge topic, this article gives an interesting perspective. With only about about 16.5% of households in San Diego (with comparably low percentages in other major cities) earning more than $150K, no wonder people are moving.
Also interesting to note that the highest out migration from the most desirable cities is in the 18-54 age group across all income levels.
https://www.trulia.com/blog/trends/priced-out-migration/%5B/quote%5D
The data was compiled from 2014 census. Also, at least in SD County, what net outflow?
SD County second largest in CA, despite slow growthSan Diego County continues to have the second-largest number of people in California and is among nine counties that account for the majority of the state’s population — despite notably slower growth linked to the Great Recession.
The region, with a current population of about 3.3 million residents, grew by an estimated 28,000 people — or 0.9 percent — between July 2014 and July 2015, according to estimates released in December by the state’s Department of Finance.
Demographers attribute a majority of this growth to “natural increase,” or births minus deaths.
Migration patterns also have played a role in the county’s current demographics, said John Malson, chief of the finance department’s demographic research unit. It’s a particularly significant factor in a border region where migration flows are ever-present and often fluctuate, reflecting economic and social conditions in other countries.
Long-term forecasts indicate a shift in these migration patterns as migration from Asia continues to grow and migration from Mexico tapers off, extending a trend that’s been building for about a decade.
“The bigger part of the migration factor has been from Asian countries — China and India,” Malson said. “This is something that will likely continue.”
While the majority of Asian immigrants, particularly those from India, immigrate to pursue careers in California’s booming tech industry, people from China also immigrate on education visas, Malson said.
San Diego County gained an estimated 11,600 residents through foreign migration but lost about 8,700 people due to “domestic migration” — individuals who relocated to other parts of the country — resulting in a net positive migration of about 3,000 people, according to the finance department.
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