Wolf Creek Temecula: Will it get finished?

[temeculaguy]

It is close to 75% done but I don’t think it will make it because building costs are exceeding values right now, we are dangerously close to entering the overcorrection phase (which may last a few years) and the repos are priced well below new. Every owner is underwater, even if you put 50% down you are without equity in wolf. Another thing that hurts it is the csa fee (similar to mello roos) is horrible, it is over 3k a year per house not based on value. When they were 600k, the tax rate was 1.6 but now that almost every house is worth about 300k, the taxes are over 2% plus hoa. Wolf and Morgan are about a tie and buying a 300k house in either with 20% down will cost about 1600 a month but close to $750 in taxes and hoa per month, that just kills their marketability when the other tracts can offer the same fundamentals at $400 a month less.

Stan pac has three tracts left, woodside has four and lennar has one, all are close to 50% built but construction is almost stopped and they all lose their ability to offer downpayment assistance in 3 weeks. It’s a sucker play to buy new in wolf, a repo in there can be had for 50-100k less than new and the repos have started to increase while the buyers have started to fade. The tent folding will hurt the existing owners even more because of the uncertainty of what will done later to fill it in and the years of vacant lots growing weeds. I imagine the hoa fees will rise if it doesn’t build out. At this point, a morgan or redhawk view home, away from the casino is cheaper than a flatland wolf creek home that is next to it, that inversion isn’t logical and wont be supported. Every builder offering can be beat by going for a short or a repo and you can pay less to get more in a better location, that will be the death of wolf unless they slash prices by 20-30% and I don’t think they can afford to do it, there isn’t enough margin to cut.

On a side note, I’ve made two written offers this month (lowballs but not too low, just 10% under ask), a short in morgan and a bank owned in wolf, at $90 a square each, didn’t get either and I must say I am relieved, it is going to get worse.

[paramount]

Some additional observations: For some reason, no retail outlets have located in Wolf Creek despite the area set aside for a supermarket and other shops.

I have to say though I do like Wolf Creek despite some obvious issues.

The City Park @ Wolf Creek is 1st class, they have a large pool and other tot lots, etc…

[paramount]

Some additional observations: For some reason, no retail outlets have located in Wolf Creek despite the area set aside for a supermarket and other shops.

I have to say though I do like Wolf Creek despite some obvious issues.

The City Park @ Wolf Creek is 1st class, they have a large pool and other tot lots, etc…

[paramount]

Some additional observations: For some reason, no retail outlets have located in Wolf Creek despite the area set aside for a supermarket and other shops.

I have to say though I do like Wolf Creek despite some obvious issues.

The City Park @ Wolf Creek is 1st class, they have a large pool and other tot lots, etc…

[paramount]

Some additional observations: For some reason, no retail outlets have located in Wolf Creek despite the area set aside for a supermarket and other shops.

I have to say though I do like Wolf Creek despite some obvious issues.

The City Park @ Wolf Creek is 1st class, they have a large pool and other tot lots, etc…

[paramount]

Some additional observations: For some reason, no retail outlets have located in Wolf Creek despite the area set aside for a supermarket and other shops.

I have to say though I do like Wolf Creek despite some obvious issues.

The City Park @ Wolf Creek is 1st class, they have a large pool and other tot lots, etc…

[temeculaguy]

Here is an example, this is stan pac’s best deal website for standing inventory or nearly done

http://www.standardpacificinland.com/bestdeals.php

2500 sq 3/3 is 300k after all incentives with no closing costs credit. That is for a less desirable location very close to the casino and the road, no flooring, no window covering and no backyard. Tandem 3 car or 2 car. The 2900 sq 4/3 is about 340k same restrictions.

but there a dumpload of bigger and cheaper ones with 5 br, over 3000 sq and 3 car non tandems with backyards and blinds and flooring for about 300k and you can still bargain and ask for closing costs.

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=1&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=3&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=5&maxprice=400000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28788088

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28388741

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28708352

Then you also see 2600 sq ft shorts pop up for 250-275,

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=15&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28729111

The builders are dead in the water, D.R horton is in even worse shape, they want 315 for an 1800 sq ft mini lot sfr when that is the going rate for a mcmansion repo, they need to come down a 100k, I see that tract folding very soon.

[temeculaguy]

Here is an example, this is stan pac’s best deal website for standing inventory or nearly done

http://www.standardpacificinland.com/bestdeals.php

2500 sq 3/3 is 300k after all incentives with no closing costs credit. That is for a less desirable location very close to the casino and the road, no flooring, no window covering and no backyard. Tandem 3 car or 2 car. The 2900 sq 4/3 is about 340k same restrictions.

but there a dumpload of bigger and cheaper ones with 5 br, over 3000 sq and 3 car non tandems with backyards and blinds and flooring for about 300k and you can still bargain and ask for closing costs.

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=1&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=3&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=5&maxprice=400000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28788088

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28388741

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28708352

Then you also see 2600 sq ft shorts pop up for 250-275,

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=15&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28729111

The builders are dead in the water, D.R horton is in even worse shape, they want 315 for an 1800 sq ft mini lot sfr when that is the going rate for a mcmansion repo, they need to come down a 100k, I see that tract folding very soon.

[temeculaguy]

Here is an example, this is stan pac’s best deal website for standing inventory or nearly done

http://www.standardpacificinland.com/bestdeals.php

2500 sq 3/3 is 300k after all incentives with no closing costs credit. That is for a less desirable location very close to the casino and the road, no flooring, no window covering and no backyard. Tandem 3 car or 2 car. The 2900 sq 4/3 is about 340k same restrictions.

but there a dumpload of bigger and cheaper ones with 5 br, over 3000 sq and 3 car non tandems with backyards and blinds and flooring for about 300k and you can still bargain and ask for closing costs.

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=1&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=3&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=5&maxprice=400000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28788088

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28388741

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28708352

Then you also see 2600 sq ft shorts pop up for 250-275,

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=15&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28729111

The builders are dead in the water, D.R horton is in even worse shape, they want 315 for an 1800 sq ft mini lot sfr when that is the going rate for a mcmansion repo, they need to come down a 100k, I see that tract folding very soon.

[temeculaguy]

Here is an example, this is stan pac’s best deal website for standing inventory or nearly done

http://www.standardpacificinland.com/bestdeals.php

2500 sq 3/3 is 300k after all incentives with no closing costs credit. That is for a less desirable location very close to the casino and the road, no flooring, no window covering and no backyard. Tandem 3 car or 2 car. The 2900 sq 4/3 is about 340k same restrictions.

but there a dumpload of bigger and cheaper ones with 5 br, over 3000 sq and 3 car non tandems with backyards and blinds and flooring for about 300k and you can still bargain and ask for closing costs.

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=1&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=3&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=5&maxprice=400000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28788088

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28388741

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28708352

Then you also see 2600 sq ft shorts pop up for 250-275,

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=15&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28729111

The builders are dead in the water, D.R horton is in even worse shape, they want 315 for an 1800 sq ft mini lot sfr when that is the going rate for a mcmansion repo, they need to come down a 100k, I see that tract folding very soon.

[temeculaguy]

Here is an example, this is stan pac’s best deal website for standing inventory or nearly done

http://www.standardpacificinland.com/bestdeals.php

2500 sq 3/3 is 300k after all incentives with no closing costs credit. That is for a less desirable location very close to the casino and the road, no flooring, no window covering and no backyard. Tandem 3 car or 2 car. The 2900 sq 4/3 is about 340k same restrictions.

but there a dumpload of bigger and cheaper ones with 5 br, over 3000 sq and 3 car non tandems with backyards and blinds and flooring for about 300k and you can still bargain and ask for closing costs.

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=1&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=3&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=5&maxprice=400000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28788088

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28388741

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=0&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28708352

Then you also see 2600 sq ft shorts pop up for 250-275,

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/listingDetails.do?featured_int=0&c_mtype=res&searchId=0&minprice=220000&c_type=&xml=1&serverId=0&rpp=15&c_year-built=&c_garage=&la=EN&cu=USD&ssid=0&per=mrmls&c_zipcode=92592&c_city=&st=15&maxprice=320000&back1=%2Fpersonal%2F1_3_1%2FsearchResults.do&of=28729111

The builders are dead in the water, D.R horton is in even worse shape, they want 315 for an 1800 sq ft mini lot sfr when that is the going rate for a mcmansion repo, they need to come down a 100k, I see that tract folding very soon.

[Aecetia]

They are in denial. Soon they will move into acceptance and lower their prices or go out of business. Then their assets will be liquidated. Keep waiting.

[Aecetia]

They are in denial. Soon they will move into acceptance and lower their prices or go out of business. Then their assets will be liquidated. Keep waiting.

[Aecetia]

They are in denial. Soon they will move into acceptance and lower their prices or go out of business. Then their assets will be liquidated. Keep waiting.

[Aecetia]

They are in denial. Soon they will move into acceptance and lower their prices or go out of business. Then their assets will be liquidated. Keep waiting.

[Author]

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