why the consumer index collapsed

[barnaby33]

When I read through this thread I realized i didn’t really know what the Consumer Confidence Index was, or how it was constructed. I’ve linked to it. It seems that the relatively small sample size makes any one months number suspect and that perhaps the suggestion of giving more weight tot he moving average would be better.

I’m a big believer in the reality that we never got out of recession, so for me there is no sense in trying to parse the tea leaves to know when we go back in. That being said, its hard to believe that consumer confidence is as high as it has been, considering unemployment really hasn’t gone down at all. To me its no surprise that confidence numbers are decreasing now that ever more are falling off the back of the bus.
Josh

[paramount]

[quote=danielwis] Lots of welfare the last 10 years for defense companies, Haliburton, oil companies, banks, while the American people in need are now given the middle finger.[/quote]

Can you give me an Amen Brother!

[paramount]

[quote=danielwis] Lots of welfare the last 10 years for defense companies, Haliburton, oil companies, banks, while the American people in need are now given the middle finger.[/quote]

Can you give me an Amen Brother!

[paramount]

[quote=danielwis] Lots of welfare the last 10 years for defense companies, Haliburton, oil companies, banks, while the American people in need are now given the middle finger.[/quote]

Can you give me an Amen Brother!

[paramount]

[quote=danielwis] Lots of welfare the last 10 years for defense companies, Haliburton, oil companies, banks, while the American people in need are now given the middle finger.[/quote]

Can you give me an Amen Brother!

[paramount]

[quote=danielwis] Lots of welfare the last 10 years for defense companies, Haliburton, oil companies, banks, while the American people in need are now given the middle finger.[/quote]

Can you give me an Amen Brother!

[Rich Toscano]

I’m with DWCAP. Consumer confidence tends to just follow whatever the stock market is doing. Here’s a good illustration: http://www.icmarc.org/ImageCache/rc/content/marketview/chart/2010/20100305consumerconfidencevsstocks_2ectt/v1/image_5b_40id_3d_22chart_22_5d/1/20100305consumeconfidence.gif

[Rich Toscano]

I’m with DWCAP. Consumer confidence tends to just follow whatever the stock market is doing. Here’s a good illustration: http://www.icmarc.org/ImageCache/rc/content/marketview/chart/2010/20100305consumerconfidencevsstocks_2ectt/v1/image_5b_40id_3d_22chart_22_5d/1/20100305consumeconfidence.gif

[Rich Toscano]

I’m with DWCAP. Consumer confidence tends to just follow whatever the stock market is doing. Here’s a good illustration: http://www.icmarc.org/ImageCache/rc/content/marketview/chart/2010/20100305consumerconfidencevsstocks_2ectt/v1/image_5b_40id_3d_22chart_22_5d/1/20100305consumeconfidence.gif

[Rich Toscano]

I’m with DWCAP. Consumer confidence tends to just follow whatever the stock market is doing. Here’s a good illustration: http://www.icmarc.org/ImageCache/rc/content/marketview/chart/2010/20100305consumerconfidencevsstocks_2ectt/v1/image_5b_40id_3d_22chart_22_5d/1/20100305consumeconfidence.gif

[Rich Toscano]

I’m with DWCAP. Consumer confidence tends to just follow whatever the stock market is doing. Here’s a good illustration: http://www.icmarc.org/ImageCache/rc/content/marketview/chart/2010/20100305consumerconfidencevsstocks_2ectt/v1/image_5b_40id_3d_22chart_22_5d/1/20100305consumeconfidence.gif

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=Rich Toscano]I’m with DWCAP. Consumer confidence tends to just follow whatever the stock market is doing. [/quote]

Do you have any reason to believe that the stock market is a causation of the change in Consumer confidence instead or merely correlated? When I look at that chart I see correlation, but I don’t see the stock market leading consumer confidence, nor the other way around. (Note that in mid to late 2007 the consumer confidence began diving several months BEFORE the stock market peaked. Yet in other spots it appears the stock market turns first.)

If anything I would personally argue that they are correlated, but neither is a causality of the other. More likely the sentiment of both consumers and investors are triggered by other factors.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=Rich Toscano]I’m with DWCAP. Consumer confidence tends to just follow whatever the stock market is doing. [/quote]

Do you have any reason to believe that the stock market is a causation of the change in Consumer confidence instead or merely correlated? When I look at that chart I see correlation, but I don’t see the stock market leading consumer confidence, nor the other way around. (Note that in mid to late 2007 the consumer confidence began diving several months BEFORE the stock market peaked. Yet in other spots it appears the stock market turns first.)

If anything I would personally argue that they are correlated, but neither is a causality of the other. More likely the sentiment of both consumers and investors are triggered by other factors.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=Rich Toscano]I’m with DWCAP. Consumer confidence tends to just follow whatever the stock market is doing. [/quote]

Do you have any reason to believe that the stock market is a causation of the change in Consumer confidence instead or merely correlated? When I look at that chart I see correlation, but I don’t see the stock market leading consumer confidence, nor the other way around. (Note that in mid to late 2007 the consumer confidence began diving several months BEFORE the stock market peaked. Yet in other spots it appears the stock market turns first.)

If anything I would personally argue that they are correlated, but neither is a causality of the other. More likely the sentiment of both consumers and investors are triggered by other factors.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=Rich Toscano]I’m with DWCAP. Consumer confidence tends to just follow whatever the stock market is doing. [/quote]

Do you have any reason to believe that the stock market is a causation of the change in Consumer confidence instead or merely correlated? When I look at that chart I see correlation, but I don’t see the stock market leading consumer confidence, nor the other way around. (Note that in mid to late 2007 the consumer confidence began diving several months BEFORE the stock market peaked. Yet in other spots it appears the stock market turns first.)

If anything I would personally argue that they are correlated, but neither is a causality of the other. More likely the sentiment of both consumers and investors are triggered by other factors.

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