Why is San Diego real estate still so expensive?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Scarlett]. . . But it’s highly unlikely that in a neighborhood (not just 1 block) more than half of the adult professionals with kids will move out in short time span – AND that no people with kids will move in.[/quote]

Scarlett, I think a neighborhood is more likely to change if most of its residents are worker-families. It changes because workers lose their jobs (and eventually, house). It changes because workers change jobs and sell. It changes because a family grows and needs a bigger place, so sells. In a neighborhood of mostly retirees, the population is more stable.

[quote=Scarlett]One wouldn’t buy in a ghetto/gang area just because it’s cheap and close to work, even if it’s a very decent house, now would they? On the same token, those gang people may simply decide to move away,no?[/quote]

Well, first Scarlett, there are none of these areas that I am aware of in close proximity to either you or your spouse’s work locations so this issue doesn’t really affect you if you purchase in close proximity to work.

But to address your question, the presence of “gang people” or the perception of “ghetto” is in the eye of the beholder-buyer. As far as I am aware (not sure about O’side though), SD doesn’t have any “ghettos” or a proliferation of “gang people” concentrated in any particular area. This type of activity was pretty much “cleaned up” by patient, diligent foot-soldier SDPD neighborhood patrol in the mid-late ’80’s. Some of these dedicated officers have been patrolling the same streets for 25+ years. Many SDPD officers own several (or many) rental SFR’s in their longtime patrol areas and reside there as well, making it easy for them to manage their rental properties themselves. Buyers buy property in ALL areas, especially if they are already highly familiar with an area, i.e. grew up there or have relatives living there. Many buyers are VERY comfortable sending their own children to the exact same schools they attended, with no regard to “API scores,” because relative-caregivers live in the area.

[quote=Scarlett]. . . However when I pull SDL listing of homes of 500K – maybe one or two come up every few months. And usually they are not that great, i.e. quite a few of the desirable features are missing, or it’s a lot of work (which we can’t afford). That IS still expensive FOR ME. In the mean time I can pull out many more listings like that in PQ, CMR or SR. You are saying it’s UC where I should buy. Yes I know I am buying only ONE house – which is why I keep my eye on MM and UC even with the very slim inventory in my price range. But I want to be happy with the house and if I really settle ONLY on UC I may have to wait a LOOOONG time before getting one I like.[/quote]

You seem to have been waiting a long time already, Scarlett. If you are trying to get all your “desirable features” in one property, you will not find them in your price range without making another, more onerous tradeoff (i.e. commute/heat). Only you know when it’s the right time to get serious about buying a house and when that time comes, you will come across the exact same issues we are discussing today, except that the interest rates may not be as favorable, making your price-range less. Yes, some of the aforementioned areas on your “list” could fall in value more as distressed property is sold off in those areas creating lower sales comps. But don’t expect to see UC take a nosedive. I just looked at SD Transplant’s site showing a map of distressed properties he/she posted today. According to it, there are three 4/2/2 SFRs currently situated in UC where a Notice of Sale has been filed and two SFRs where a Notice of Default has been filed.

see: http://piggington.com/google039s_new_way_to_track_foreclosures

Compare these numbers to PQ, CMR or SR and MM.

I’m not saying you should buy anywhere in particular, Scarlett. You have to be comfortable with the property and commute.

[quote=Scarlett]PQ, SR, CMR, and west MM are not, by any means, inferior locations.[/quote]

No, they are not “inferior locations” in and of themselves but are “inferior locations to UC,” especially in your case, since you work near UC. That’s why UC is more expensive. You pay for what you get. In UC, you get “location” over a more modern floor plan (in your price range). It has nothing to do with “greedy” UC sellers and everything to do with location. You are free to cut a deal in UC and won’t know if a seller will accept what you offer unless you try.

Location is the most important factor in determining value of RE in CA coastal counties. There’s nothing anyone can do about this.

It is what it is . . . and this is coming from the most pragmatic bear you will ever find.

[Scarlett]

[[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Scarlett]. . . But it’s highly unlikely that in a neighborhood (not just 1 block) more than half of the adult professionals with kids will move out in short time span – AND that no people with kids will move in.[/quote]

Scarlett, I think a neighborhood is more likely to change if most of its residents are worker-families. It changes because workers lose their jobs (and eventually, house). It changes because workers change jobs and sell. It changes because a family grows and needs a bigger place, so sells. In a neighborhood of mostly retirees, the population is more stable. [/quote]

Yes, but they also sell – die, move to nursing homes or with their kids, etc. or worse, rent it out. What about retirees who have to sell their homes to have money to live – equity is all they have. And as I said, other people move in. Workers/professionals come and go – jobs change quickly. But still many of them will flock to those areas with good schools – e.g. PQ, RB.

[quote=bearishgurl]You seem to have been waiting a long time already, Scarlett. (…) except that the interest rates may not be as favorable, making your price-range less. Yes, some of the aforementioned areas on your “list” could fall in value more as distressed property is sold off in those areas creating lower sales comps. But don’t expect to see UC take a nosedive. I just looked at SD Transplant’s site showing a map of distressed properties he/she posted today. According to it, there are three 4/2/2 SFRs currently situated in UC where a Notice of Sale has been filed and two SFRs where a Notice of Default has been filed.

see: http://piggington.com/google039s_new_way_to_track_foreclosures

Compare these numbers to PQ, CMR or SR and MM.[/quote]

I am actually counting on the distressed sales to bring the prices down more in those areas. And thanks for pointing that out about UC so I shouldn’t waste too much time waiting for it.

I am interested much more in the sales price not in the rate. And I don’t see the rates increasing dramtatically over the next couple of years, even though I am HOPING for it.

[quote=bearishgurl]No, they are not “inferior locations” in and of themselves but are “inferior locations to UC,” especially in your case, since you work near UC. That’s why UC is more expensive. Location is the most important factor in determining value of RE in CA coastal counties. There’s nothing anyone can do about this. [/quote]
I disagree they are inferior to UC. They are farther away by 5-10 miles from our current workplaces, yes, but like you said it’s a trade off for more modern/newer houses and other amenities. Each area has their good points and bad points.

[Scarlett]

[[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Scarlett]. . . But it’s highly unlikely that in a neighborhood (not just 1 block) more than half of the adult professionals with kids will move out in short time span – AND that no people with kids will move in.[/quote]

Scarlett, I think a neighborhood is more likely to change if most of its residents are worker-families. It changes because workers lose their jobs (and eventually, house). It changes because workers change jobs and sell. It changes because a family grows and needs a bigger place, so sells. In a neighborhood of mostly retirees, the population is more stable. [/quote]

Yes, but they also sell – die, move to nursing homes or with their kids, etc. or worse, rent it out. What about retirees who have to sell their homes to have money to live – equity is all they have. And as I said, other people move in. Workers/professionals come and go – jobs change quickly. But still many of them will flock to those areas with good schools – e.g. PQ, RB.

[quote=bearishgurl]You seem to have been waiting a long time already, Scarlett. (…) except that the interest rates may not be as favorable, making your price-range less. Yes, some of the aforementioned areas on your “list” could fall in value more as distressed property is sold off in those areas creating lower sales comps. But don’t expect to see UC take a nosedive. I just looked at SD Transplant’s site showing a map of distressed properties he/she posted today. According to it, there are three 4/2/2 SFRs currently situated in UC where a Notice of Sale has been filed and two SFRs where a Notice of Default has been filed.

see: http://piggington.com/google039s_new_way_to_track_foreclosures

Compare these numbers to PQ, CMR or SR and MM.[/quote]

I am actually counting on the distressed sales to bring the prices down more in those areas. And thanks for pointing that out about UC so I shouldn’t waste too much time waiting for it.

I am interested much more in the sales price not in the rate. And I don’t see the rates increasing dramtatically over the next couple of years, even though I am HOPING for it.

[quote=bearishgurl]No, they are not “inferior locations” in and of themselves but are “inferior locations to UC,” especially in your case, since you work near UC. That’s why UC is more expensive. Location is the most important factor in determining value of RE in CA coastal counties. There’s nothing anyone can do about this. [/quote]
I disagree they are inferior to UC. They are farther away by 5-10 miles from our current workplaces, yes, but like you said it’s a trade off for more modern/newer houses and other amenities. Each area has their good points and bad points.

[Scarlett]

[[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Scarlett]. . . But it’s highly unlikely that in a neighborhood (not just 1 block) more than half of the adult professionals with kids will move out in short time span – AND that no people with kids will move in.[/quote]

Scarlett, I think a neighborhood is more likely to change if most of its residents are worker-families. It changes because workers lose their jobs (and eventually, house). It changes because workers change jobs and sell. It changes because a family grows and needs a bigger place, so sells. In a neighborhood of mostly retirees, the population is more stable. [/quote]

Yes, but they also sell – die, move to nursing homes or with their kids, etc. or worse, rent it out. What about retirees who have to sell their homes to have money to live – equity is all they have. And as I said, other people move in. Workers/professionals come and go – jobs change quickly. But still many of them will flock to those areas with good schools – e.g. PQ, RB.

[quote=bearishgurl]You seem to have been waiting a long time already, Scarlett. (…) except that the interest rates may not be as favorable, making your price-range less. Yes, some of the aforementioned areas on your “list” could fall in value more as distressed property is sold off in those areas creating lower sales comps. But don’t expect to see UC take a nosedive. I just looked at SD Transplant’s site showing a map of distressed properties he/she posted today. According to it, there are three 4/2/2 SFRs currently situated in UC where a Notice of Sale has been filed and two SFRs where a Notice of Default has been filed.

see: http://piggington.com/google039s_new_way_to_track_foreclosures

Compare these numbers to PQ, CMR or SR and MM.[/quote]

I am actually counting on the distressed sales to bring the prices down more in those areas. And thanks for pointing that out about UC so I shouldn’t waste too much time waiting for it.

I am interested much more in the sales price not in the rate. And I don’t see the rates increasing dramtatically over the next couple of years, even though I am HOPING for it.

[quote=bearishgurl]No, they are not “inferior locations” in and of themselves but are “inferior locations to UC,” especially in your case, since you work near UC. That’s why UC is more expensive. Location is the most important factor in determining value of RE in CA coastal counties. There’s nothing anyone can do about this. [/quote]
I disagree they are inferior to UC. They are farther away by 5-10 miles from our current workplaces, yes, but like you said it’s a trade off for more modern/newer houses and other amenities. Each area has their good points and bad points.

[Scarlett]

[[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Scarlett]. . . But it’s highly unlikely that in a neighborhood (not just 1 block) more than half of the adult professionals with kids will move out in short time span – AND that no people with kids will move in.[/quote]

Scarlett, I think a neighborhood is more likely to change if most of its residents are worker-families. It changes because workers lose their jobs (and eventually, house). It changes because workers change jobs and sell. It changes because a family grows and needs a bigger place, so sells. In a neighborhood of mostly retirees, the population is more stable. [/quote]

Yes, but they also sell – die, move to nursing homes or with their kids, etc. or worse, rent it out. What about retirees who have to sell their homes to have money to live – equity is all they have. And as I said, other people move in. Workers/professionals come and go – jobs change quickly. But still many of them will flock to those areas with good schools – e.g. PQ, RB.

[quote=bearishgurl]You seem to have been waiting a long time already, Scarlett. (…) except that the interest rates may not be as favorable, making your price-range less. Yes, some of the aforementioned areas on your “list” could fall in value more as distressed property is sold off in those areas creating lower sales comps. But don’t expect to see UC take a nosedive. I just looked at SD Transplant’s site showing a map of distressed properties he/she posted today. According to it, there are three 4/2/2 SFRs currently situated in UC where a Notice of Sale has been filed and two SFRs where a Notice of Default has been filed.

see: http://piggington.com/google039s_new_way_to_track_foreclosures

Compare these numbers to PQ, CMR or SR and MM.[/quote]

I am actually counting on the distressed sales to bring the prices down more in those areas. And thanks for pointing that out about UC so I shouldn’t waste too much time waiting for it.

I am interested much more in the sales price not in the rate. And I don’t see the rates increasing dramtatically over the next couple of years, even though I am HOPING for it.

[quote=bearishgurl]No, they are not “inferior locations” in and of themselves but are “inferior locations to UC,” especially in your case, since you work near UC. That’s why UC is more expensive. Location is the most important factor in determining value of RE in CA coastal counties. There’s nothing anyone can do about this. [/quote]
I disagree they are inferior to UC. They are farther away by 5-10 miles from our current workplaces, yes, but like you said it’s a trade off for more modern/newer houses and other amenities. Each area has their good points and bad points.

[Scarlett]

[[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Scarlett]. . . But it’s highly unlikely that in a neighborhood (not just 1 block) more than half of the adult professionals with kids will move out in short time span – AND that no people with kids will move in.[/quote]

Scarlett, I think a neighborhood is more likely to change if most of its residents are worker-families. It changes because workers lose their jobs (and eventually, house). It changes because workers change jobs and sell. It changes because a family grows and needs a bigger place, so sells. In a neighborhood of mostly retirees, the population is more stable. [/quote]

Yes, but they also sell – die, move to nursing homes or with their kids, etc. or worse, rent it out. What about retirees who have to sell their homes to have money to live – equity is all they have. And as I said, other people move in. Workers/professionals come and go – jobs change quickly. But still many of them will flock to those areas with good schools – e.g. PQ, RB.

[quote=bearishgurl]You seem to have been waiting a long time already, Scarlett. (…) except that the interest rates may not be as favorable, making your price-range less. Yes, some of the aforementioned areas on your “list” could fall in value more as distressed property is sold off in those areas creating lower sales comps. But don’t expect to see UC take a nosedive. I just looked at SD Transplant’s site showing a map of distressed properties he/she posted today. According to it, there are three 4/2/2 SFRs currently situated in UC where a Notice of Sale has been filed and two SFRs where a Notice of Default has been filed.

see: http://piggington.com/google039s_new_way_to_track_foreclosures

Compare these numbers to PQ, CMR or SR and MM.[/quote]

I am actually counting on the distressed sales to bring the prices down more in those areas. And thanks for pointing that out about UC so I shouldn’t waste too much time waiting for it.

I am interested much more in the sales price not in the rate. And I don’t see the rates increasing dramtatically over the next couple of years, even though I am HOPING for it.

[quote=bearishgurl]No, they are not “inferior locations” in and of themselves but are “inferior locations to UC,” especially in your case, since you work near UC. That’s why UC is more expensive. Location is the most important factor in determining value of RE in CA coastal counties. There’s nothing anyone can do about this. [/quote]
I disagree they are inferior to UC. They are farther away by 5-10 miles from our current workplaces, yes, but like you said it’s a trade off for more modern/newer houses and other amenities. Each area has their good points and bad points.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=poorgradstudent]Has anyone already pointed out what a terrible measure of student success API is? All it tends to reflect is the demographics of who lives in the district and to some degree what a student’s peer group would be like at that school. It tells nothing about how likely a particular school is to help a student reach their potential.[/quote]

Overall, this is a great post, poorgradstudent. I’ve been saying this here for a few months now but it has apparently fallen mostly on deaf ears.

[quote=poorgradstudent] . . . A 3/2 in South Park is a lot more expensive than a 3/2 in less desirable areas.[/quote]

Yes, and a lot better-built, as well. But for a family, buying and moving into one of these would entail enrolling their 16-year old in SD High’s renowned International Baccalaureate Program. No takers here.

[quote=poorgradstudent]Santee, La Mesa and Chula Vista are all much cheaper than most of San Diego proper. We’re actually finding that San Diego real estate is expensive not so much in San Diego, but in areas of San Diego we actually want to live in.[/quote]

This is subjective, poorgradstudent. I can’t speak for Santee, but parent-buyers in LM and Chula primarily grew up in the exact same high school attendance area they are shopping in for their own children and can sometimes be convinced to “move away” (=<5 miles) from their "home turf" to an adjacent rival-school attendance area.

[quote=poorgradstudent]From my browsing real estate listings in Seattle, San Jose and Minneapolis in neighborhoods comparable to the ones I like here, I don't see that big a difference in price . . .[/quote]

I've done a little research of my own here and I agree that in cities equally desirable as San Diego (for different reasons), the residential RE is priced comparably with SD.

[quote=poorgradstudent]Off-hand, the only part of the country I can confidently say is cheaper with as good or better of an economy is Houston and Dallas. Notably their real estate market was one of the quickest to recover, and five years from now probably will be just as expensive.[/quote]

A TX buyer will always get more "bang for the buck" due to an abundance of land (read: "cheap") and laws on its books which have the effect of causing its RE to stagnate in value or rise very slowly.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=poorgradstudent]Has anyone already pointed out what a terrible measure of student success API is? All it tends to reflect is the demographics of who lives in the district and to some degree what a student’s peer group would be like at that school. It tells nothing about how likely a particular school is to help a student reach their potential.[/quote]

Overall, this is a great post, poorgradstudent. I’ve been saying this here for a few months now but it has apparently fallen mostly on deaf ears.

[quote=poorgradstudent] . . . A 3/2 in South Park is a lot more expensive than a 3/2 in less desirable areas.[/quote]

Yes, and a lot better-built, as well. But for a family, buying and moving into one of these would entail enrolling their 16-year old in SD High’s renowned International Baccalaureate Program. No takers here.

[quote=poorgradstudent]Santee, La Mesa and Chula Vista are all much cheaper than most of San Diego proper. We’re actually finding that San Diego real estate is expensive not so much in San Diego, but in areas of San Diego we actually want to live in.[/quote]

This is subjective, poorgradstudent. I can’t speak for Santee, but parent-buyers in LM and Chula primarily grew up in the exact same high school attendance area they are shopping in for their own children and can sometimes be convinced to “move away” (=<5 miles) from their "home turf" to an adjacent rival-school attendance area.

[quote=poorgradstudent]From my browsing real estate listings in Seattle, San Jose and Minneapolis in neighborhoods comparable to the ones I like here, I don't see that big a difference in price . . .[/quote]

I've done a little research of my own here and I agree that in cities equally desirable as San Diego (for different reasons), the residential RE is priced comparably with SD.

[quote=poorgradstudent]Off-hand, the only part of the country I can confidently say is cheaper with as good or better of an economy is Houston and Dallas. Notably their real estate market was one of the quickest to recover, and five years from now probably will be just as expensive.[/quote]

A TX buyer will always get more "bang for the buck" due to an abundance of land (read: "cheap") and laws on its books which have the effect of causing its RE to stagnate in value or rise very slowly.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=poorgradstudent]Has anyone already pointed out what a terrible measure of student success API is? All it tends to reflect is the demographics of who lives in the district and to some degree what a student’s peer group would be like at that school. It tells nothing about how likely a particular school is to help a student reach their potential.[/quote]

Overall, this is a great post, poorgradstudent. I’ve been saying this here for a few months now but it has apparently fallen mostly on deaf ears.

[quote=poorgradstudent] . . . A 3/2 in South Park is a lot more expensive than a 3/2 in less desirable areas.[/quote]

Yes, and a lot better-built, as well. But for a family, buying and moving into one of these would entail enrolling their 16-year old in SD High’s renowned International Baccalaureate Program. No takers here.

[quote=poorgradstudent]Santee, La Mesa and Chula Vista are all much cheaper than most of San Diego proper. We’re actually finding that San Diego real estate is expensive not so much in San Diego, but in areas of San Diego we actually want to live in.[/quote]

This is subjective, poorgradstudent. I can’t speak for Santee, but parent-buyers in LM and Chula primarily grew up in the exact same high school attendance area they are shopping in for their own children and can sometimes be convinced to “move away” (=<5 miles) from their "home turf" to an adjacent rival-school attendance area.

[quote=poorgradstudent]From my browsing real estate listings in Seattle, San Jose and Minneapolis in neighborhoods comparable to the ones I like here, I don't see that big a difference in price . . .[/quote]

I've done a little research of my own here and I agree that in cities equally desirable as San Diego (for different reasons), the residential RE is priced comparably with SD.

[quote=poorgradstudent]Off-hand, the only part of the country I can confidently say is cheaper with as good or better of an economy is Houston and Dallas. Notably their real estate market was one of the quickest to recover, and five years from now probably will be just as expensive.[/quote]

A TX buyer will always get more "bang for the buck" due to an abundance of land (read: "cheap") and laws on its books which have the effect of causing its RE to stagnate in value or rise very slowly.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=poorgradstudent]Has anyone already pointed out what a terrible measure of student success API is? All it tends to reflect is the demographics of who lives in the district and to some degree what a student’s peer group would be like at that school. It tells nothing about how likely a particular school is to help a student reach their potential.[/quote]

Overall, this is a great post, poorgradstudent. I’ve been saying this here for a few months now but it has apparently fallen mostly on deaf ears.

[quote=poorgradstudent] . . . A 3/2 in South Park is a lot more expensive than a 3/2 in less desirable areas.[/quote]

Yes, and a lot better-built, as well. But for a family, buying and moving into one of these would entail enrolling their 16-year old in SD High’s renowned International Baccalaureate Program. No takers here.

[quote=poorgradstudent]Santee, La Mesa and Chula Vista are all much cheaper than most of San Diego proper. We’re actually finding that San Diego real estate is expensive not so much in San Diego, but in areas of San Diego we actually want to live in.[/quote]

This is subjective, poorgradstudent. I can’t speak for Santee, but parent-buyers in LM and Chula primarily grew up in the exact same high school attendance area they are shopping in for their own children and can sometimes be convinced to “move away” (=<5 miles) from their "home turf" to an adjacent rival-school attendance area.

[quote=poorgradstudent]From my browsing real estate listings in Seattle, San Jose and Minneapolis in neighborhoods comparable to the ones I like here, I don't see that big a difference in price . . .[/quote]

I've done a little research of my own here and I agree that in cities equally desirable as San Diego (for different reasons), the residential RE is priced comparably with SD.

[quote=poorgradstudent]Off-hand, the only part of the country I can confidently say is cheaper with as good or better of an economy is Houston and Dallas. Notably their real estate market was one of the quickest to recover, and five years from now probably will be just as expensive.[/quote]

A TX buyer will always get more "bang for the buck" due to an abundance of land (read: "cheap") and laws on its books which have the effect of causing its RE to stagnate in value or rise very slowly.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=poorgradstudent]Has anyone already pointed out what a terrible measure of student success API is? All it tends to reflect is the demographics of who lives in the district and to some degree what a student’s peer group would be like at that school. It tells nothing about how likely a particular school is to help a student reach their potential.[/quote]

Overall, this is a great post, poorgradstudent. I’ve been saying this here for a few months now but it has apparently fallen mostly on deaf ears.

[quote=poorgradstudent] . . . A 3/2 in South Park is a lot more expensive than a 3/2 in less desirable areas.[/quote]

Yes, and a lot better-built, as well. But for a family, buying and moving into one of these would entail enrolling their 16-year old in SD High’s renowned International Baccalaureate Program. No takers here.

[quote=poorgradstudent]Santee, La Mesa and Chula Vista are all much cheaper than most of San Diego proper. We’re actually finding that San Diego real estate is expensive not so much in San Diego, but in areas of San Diego we actually want to live in.[/quote]

This is subjective, poorgradstudent. I can’t speak for Santee, but parent-buyers in LM and Chula primarily grew up in the exact same high school attendance area they are shopping in for their own children and can sometimes be convinced to “move away” (=<5 miles) from their "home turf" to an adjacent rival-school attendance area.

[quote=poorgradstudent]From my browsing real estate listings in Seattle, San Jose and Minneapolis in neighborhoods comparable to the ones I like here, I don't see that big a difference in price . . .[/quote]

I've done a little research of my own here and I agree that in cities equally desirable as San Diego (for different reasons), the residential RE is priced comparably with SD.

[quote=poorgradstudent]Off-hand, the only part of the country I can confidently say is cheaper with as good or better of an economy is Houston and Dallas. Notably their real estate market was one of the quickest to recover, and five years from now probably will be just as expensive.[/quote]

A TX buyer will always get more "bang for the buck" due to an abundance of land (read: "cheap") and laws on its books which have the effect of causing its RE to stagnate in value or rise very slowly.

[carlsbadworker]

I really feel funny about this thread.

There are lots of rational people on this site, but as Benjamin Franklin once said, “So convenient a thing it is to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to find or make a reason for anything one has a mind to do.”

Unlike a few years ago, when the price is really out-of-whack, at this time, the price (together with the interest rate) is no longer that extreme therefore I am sure pretty one can find reasons to justify any of the price. And you guys just keep arguing with each other as if one can prove one’s data/logic is better than the other’s.

I will think the predictive power of rationality to forecast the real estate price no longer exists at this time (because of the price and the amount of government/FED intervention). I would rather talk about game plans to react with the future price changes rather than forecasting it…or trying to rationalize it.

[carlsbadworker]

I really feel funny about this thread.

There are lots of rational people on this site, but as Benjamin Franklin once said, “So convenient a thing it is to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to find or make a reason for anything one has a mind to do.”

Unlike a few years ago, when the price is really out-of-whack, at this time, the price (together with the interest rate) is no longer that extreme therefore I am sure pretty one can find reasons to justify any of the price. And you guys just keep arguing with each other as if one can prove one’s data/logic is better than the other’s.

I will think the predictive power of rationality to forecast the real estate price no longer exists at this time (because of the price and the amount of government/FED intervention). I would rather talk about game plans to react with the future price changes rather than forecasting it…or trying to rationalize it.

[carlsbadworker]

I really feel funny about this thread.

There are lots of rational people on this site, but as Benjamin Franklin once said, “So convenient a thing it is to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to find or make a reason for anything one has a mind to do.”

Unlike a few years ago, when the price is really out-of-whack, at this time, the price (together with the interest rate) is no longer that extreme therefore I am sure pretty one can find reasons to justify any of the price. And you guys just keep arguing with each other as if one can prove one’s data/logic is better than the other’s.

I will think the predictive power of rationality to forecast the real estate price no longer exists at this time (because of the price and the amount of government/FED intervention). I would rather talk about game plans to react with the future price changes rather than forecasting it…or trying to rationalize it.

[carlsbadworker]

I really feel funny about this thread.

There are lots of rational people on this site, but as Benjamin Franklin once said, “So convenient a thing it is to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to find or make a reason for anything one has a mind to do.”

Unlike a few years ago, when the price is really out-of-whack, at this time, the price (together with the interest rate) is no longer that extreme therefore I am sure pretty one can find reasons to justify any of the price. And you guys just keep arguing with each other as if one can prove one’s data/logic is better than the other’s.

I will think the predictive power of rationality to forecast the real estate price no longer exists at this time (because of the price and the amount of government/FED intervention). I would rather talk about game plans to react with the future price changes rather than forecasting it…or trying to rationalize it.

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