Why I am leaving San Diego

[jstoesz]

[quote=UCGal][quote=jstoesz]yeah but that is true for every older neighborhood in the country…

Imported retirees bring in new money which skews the data.

Look no further than carmel valley (aka tract home hell) to find crazy overpriced, non-retiree neighborhoods.

There is a small argument for prop 13 screwing us, I am just not persuaded by the magnitude of the effect.[/quote]

Carmel Valley (92130) – avg age of the HOME is 7 years. So the vast majority of owners moved there in the past decade.

Clairemont (92117) – avg age of the HOME is 43 years old. It stands to reason that there are more owners that have been there fore decades.

In other words – it doesn’t matter what my neighbor who just bought paid for their house, if I bought 20 years ago. But if it’s a new neighborhood – everyone paid current (high) prices.[/quote]

Maybe I am being obtuse, but what are you getting at? Are you saying a home is only worth what the next buyer is willing to pay?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jstoesz – You need to do what you are comfortable with. If you are not comfortable buying in SD county, that’s great, do what you need to do for you and your family.

But, here’s some perspective on historical affordability in the area …
We moved to SD from the midwest. I spent 10 years in college, my wife spent 5, we were being paid 2x the median household income in San Diego in the mid 1990’s. When we bought in 1996, we could afford a median-priced 1100 square foot 3/1 in Clairemont with a single-car garage. And that was at the most affordable stage of the market in 20 years !

You are right, prices are crazy in San Diego, even when they are at the most affordable levels of a generation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jstoesz – You need to do what you are comfortable with. If you are not comfortable buying in SD county, that’s great, do what you need to do for you and your family.

But, here’s some perspective on historical affordability in the area …
We moved to SD from the midwest. I spent 10 years in college, my wife spent 5, we were being paid 2x the median household income in San Diego in the mid 1990’s. When we bought in 1996, we could afford a median-priced 1100 square foot 3/1 in Clairemont with a single-car garage. And that was at the most affordable stage of the market in 20 years !

You are right, prices are crazy in San Diego, even when they are at the most affordable levels of a generation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jstoesz – You need to do what you are comfortable with. If you are not comfortable buying in SD county, that’s great, do what you need to do for you and your family.

But, here’s some perspective on historical affordability in the area …
We moved to SD from the midwest. I spent 10 years in college, my wife spent 5, we were being paid 2x the median household income in San Diego in the mid 1990’s. When we bought in 1996, we could afford a median-priced 1100 square foot 3/1 in Clairemont with a single-car garage. And that was at the most affordable stage of the market in 20 years !

You are right, prices are crazy in San Diego, even when they are at the most affordable levels of a generation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jstoesz – You need to do what you are comfortable with. If you are not comfortable buying in SD county, that’s great, do what you need to do for you and your family.

But, here’s some perspective on historical affordability in the area …
We moved to SD from the midwest. I spent 10 years in college, my wife spent 5, we were being paid 2x the median household income in San Diego in the mid 1990’s. When we bought in 1996, we could afford a median-priced 1100 square foot 3/1 in Clairemont with a single-car garage. And that was at the most affordable stage of the market in 20 years !

You are right, prices are crazy in San Diego, even when they are at the most affordable levels of a generation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jstoesz – You need to do what you are comfortable with. If you are not comfortable buying in SD county, that’s great, do what you need to do for you and your family.

But, here’s some perspective on historical affordability in the area …
We moved to SD from the midwest. I spent 10 years in college, my wife spent 5, we were being paid 2x the median household income in San Diego in the mid 1990’s. When we bought in 1996, we could afford a median-priced 1100 square foot 3/1 in Clairemont with a single-car garage. And that was at the most affordable stage of the market in 20 years !

You are right, prices are crazy in San Diego, even when they are at the most affordable levels of a generation.

[jstoesz]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=jstoesz]you guys were talking about a neighborhood…rich’s charts are county wide.

Now have the incomes of those living in that neighborhood of clairemont gone up? That is harder data to find…

Here is the current.

http://realestate.aol.com/92117-neighborhood

Wow 7.7X annual household income…that’s real affordable![/quote]

I am not disagreeing with your charts at all. I am just saying that a lot has changed

I pointed out Rich’s graph and you made the point that it was county-wide and not really relevant. I simply picked a neghborhood that is pretty well characterized by the charts, since it tends to be pretty close to the median over the past 20 years (maybe slightly above).

It’s not complicated. These areas are more affordable today than they were in the mid 1990’s or anytime in the past 33+ years.[/quote]

I guess people 30 years ago where cool with overpriced housing too. Or SD as a whole has gotten a lot worse. In addition, 30 years ago interest wasn’t at 3.5% either. Remember, never over pay for something no matter how cheap the money is.

My only rational justification follows.

Lets take this chosen at random closing.

home. http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100051052-5321_Peyton_Pl_San_Diego_CA_92117

Its 86 price in today’s dollars is 233k…it just closed for 485k.

So either San Diego got a whole lot crappier thus making Clairemont a more attractive neighborhood by comparison to all the other parts or everyone in SD makes a lot more inflation adjusted money money thereby doubling the value of everyone’s home, yet not improving the quality of the homes (a dubious supposition). Either that or that chart is not representative of Clairemont…

[jstoesz]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=jstoesz]you guys were talking about a neighborhood…rich’s charts are county wide.

Now have the incomes of those living in that neighborhood of clairemont gone up? That is harder data to find…

Here is the current.

http://realestate.aol.com/92117-neighborhood

Wow 7.7X annual household income…that’s real affordable![/quote]

I am not disagreeing with your charts at all. I am just saying that a lot has changed

I pointed out Rich’s graph and you made the point that it was county-wide and not really relevant. I simply picked a neghborhood that is pretty well characterized by the charts, since it tends to be pretty close to the median over the past 20 years (maybe slightly above).

It’s not complicated. These areas are more affordable today than they were in the mid 1990’s or anytime in the past 33+ years.[/quote]

I guess people 30 years ago where cool with overpriced housing too. Or SD as a whole has gotten a lot worse. In addition, 30 years ago interest wasn’t at 3.5% either. Remember, never over pay for something no matter how cheap the money is.

My only rational justification follows.

Lets take this chosen at random closing.

home. http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100051052-5321_Peyton_Pl_San_Diego_CA_92117

Its 86 price in today’s dollars is 233k…it just closed for 485k.

So either San Diego got a whole lot crappier thus making Clairemont a more attractive neighborhood by comparison to all the other parts or everyone in SD makes a lot more inflation adjusted money money thereby doubling the value of everyone’s home, yet not improving the quality of the homes (a dubious supposition). Either that or that chart is not representative of Clairemont…

[jstoesz]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=jstoesz]you guys were talking about a neighborhood…rich’s charts are county wide.

Now have the incomes of those living in that neighborhood of clairemont gone up? That is harder data to find…

Here is the current.

http://realestate.aol.com/92117-neighborhood

Wow 7.7X annual household income…that’s real affordable![/quote]

I am not disagreeing with your charts at all. I am just saying that a lot has changed

I pointed out Rich’s graph and you made the point that it was county-wide and not really relevant. I simply picked a neghborhood that is pretty well characterized by the charts, since it tends to be pretty close to the median over the past 20 years (maybe slightly above).

It’s not complicated. These areas are more affordable today than they were in the mid 1990’s or anytime in the past 33+ years.[/quote]

I guess people 30 years ago where cool with overpriced housing too. Or SD as a whole has gotten a lot worse. In addition, 30 years ago interest wasn’t at 3.5% either. Remember, never over pay for something no matter how cheap the money is.

My only rational justification follows.

Lets take this chosen at random closing.

home. http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100051052-5321_Peyton_Pl_San_Diego_CA_92117

Its 86 price in today’s dollars is 233k…it just closed for 485k.

So either San Diego got a whole lot crappier thus making Clairemont a more attractive neighborhood by comparison to all the other parts or everyone in SD makes a lot more inflation adjusted money money thereby doubling the value of everyone’s home, yet not improving the quality of the homes (a dubious supposition). Either that or that chart is not representative of Clairemont…

[jstoesz]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=jstoesz]you guys were talking about a neighborhood…rich’s charts are county wide.

Now have the incomes of those living in that neighborhood of clairemont gone up? That is harder data to find…

Here is the current.

http://realestate.aol.com/92117-neighborhood

Wow 7.7X annual household income…that’s real affordable![/quote]

I am not disagreeing with your charts at all. I am just saying that a lot has changed

I pointed out Rich’s graph and you made the point that it was county-wide and not really relevant. I simply picked a neghborhood that is pretty well characterized by the charts, since it tends to be pretty close to the median over the past 20 years (maybe slightly above).

It’s not complicated. These areas are more affordable today than they were in the mid 1990’s or anytime in the past 33+ years.[/quote]

I guess people 30 years ago where cool with overpriced housing too. Or SD as a whole has gotten a lot worse. In addition, 30 years ago interest wasn’t at 3.5% either. Remember, never over pay for something no matter how cheap the money is.

My only rational justification follows.

Lets take this chosen at random closing.

home. http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100051052-5321_Peyton_Pl_San_Diego_CA_92117

Its 86 price in today’s dollars is 233k…it just closed for 485k.

So either San Diego got a whole lot crappier thus making Clairemont a more attractive neighborhood by comparison to all the other parts or everyone in SD makes a lot more inflation adjusted money money thereby doubling the value of everyone’s home, yet not improving the quality of the homes (a dubious supposition). Either that or that chart is not representative of Clairemont…

[jstoesz]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=jstoesz]you guys were talking about a neighborhood…rich’s charts are county wide.

Now have the incomes of those living in that neighborhood of clairemont gone up? That is harder data to find…

Here is the current.

http://realestate.aol.com/92117-neighborhood

Wow 7.7X annual household income…that’s real affordable![/quote]

I am not disagreeing with your charts at all. I am just saying that a lot has changed

I pointed out Rich’s graph and you made the point that it was county-wide and not really relevant. I simply picked a neghborhood that is pretty well characterized by the charts, since it tends to be pretty close to the median over the past 20 years (maybe slightly above).

It’s not complicated. These areas are more affordable today than they were in the mid 1990’s or anytime in the past 33+ years.[/quote]

I guess people 30 years ago where cool with overpriced housing too. Or SD as a whole has gotten a lot worse. In addition, 30 years ago interest wasn’t at 3.5% either. Remember, never over pay for something no matter how cheap the money is.

My only rational justification follows.

Lets take this chosen at random closing.

home. http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100051052-5321_Peyton_Pl_San_Diego_CA_92117

Its 86 price in today’s dollars is 233k…it just closed for 485k.

So either San Diego got a whole lot crappier thus making Clairemont a more attractive neighborhood by comparison to all the other parts or everyone in SD makes a lot more inflation adjusted money money thereby doubling the value of everyone’s home, yet not improving the quality of the homes (a dubious supposition). Either that or that chart is not representative of Clairemont…

[sdrealtor]

jstoez
One thing you are completely missing is that around here people are far more likely to age in place than other parts of the country. No need to retire to a warm climate, they are already here. No need to move because property taxes went up, Prop 13 takes care of that. House too big for you, just keep it because housing is expensive here, tehre is a steady infulx of new residents and you can easily rent it out for a nice amount.

In many nice ZIPS in SD county you have a lot of homes owned by low income retirees who want to and can afford to stay here. That keeps supply low and helps skew income lower tahn it would be if you looked at who was moving in rather than everyone who already lives there. When you get down to it, the median income for a ZIP is pretty meaningless in real estate. What matters is the incomes of the folks who want to, can afford to and actually buy a home there.

[sdrealtor]

jstoez
One thing you are completely missing is that around here people are far more likely to age in place than other parts of the country. No need to retire to a warm climate, they are already here. No need to move because property taxes went up, Prop 13 takes care of that. House too big for you, just keep it because housing is expensive here, tehre is a steady infulx of new residents and you can easily rent it out for a nice amount.

In many nice ZIPS in SD county you have a lot of homes owned by low income retirees who want to and can afford to stay here. That keeps supply low and helps skew income lower tahn it would be if you looked at who was moving in rather than everyone who already lives there. When you get down to it, the median income for a ZIP is pretty meaningless in real estate. What matters is the incomes of the folks who want to, can afford to and actually buy a home there.

[sdrealtor]

jstoez
One thing you are completely missing is that around here people are far more likely to age in place than other parts of the country. No need to retire to a warm climate, they are already here. No need to move because property taxes went up, Prop 13 takes care of that. House too big for you, just keep it because housing is expensive here, tehre is a steady infulx of new residents and you can easily rent it out for a nice amount.

In many nice ZIPS in SD county you have a lot of homes owned by low income retirees who want to and can afford to stay here. That keeps supply low and helps skew income lower tahn it would be if you looked at who was moving in rather than everyone who already lives there. When you get down to it, the median income for a ZIP is pretty meaningless in real estate. What matters is the incomes of the folks who want to, can afford to and actually buy a home there.

[sdrealtor]

jstoez
One thing you are completely missing is that around here people are far more likely to age in place than other parts of the country. No need to retire to a warm climate, they are already here. No need to move because property taxes went up, Prop 13 takes care of that. House too big for you, just keep it because housing is expensive here, tehre is a steady infulx of new residents and you can easily rent it out for a nice amount.

In many nice ZIPS in SD county you have a lot of homes owned by low income retirees who want to and can afford to stay here. That keeps supply low and helps skew income lower tahn it would be if you looked at who was moving in rather than everyone who already lives there. When you get down to it, the median income for a ZIP is pretty meaningless in real estate. What matters is the incomes of the folks who want to, can afford to and actually buy a home there.

[Author]

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