Why I am leaving San Diego

[CA renter]

[quote=briansd1][quote=CA renter]

It is the DURATION of the downturn that will cause the most pain, not the depth.[/quote]

I kinda agree… except that we are not in a downturn anymore. I’ve had a recovery, not a strong recovery, but still a recovery.

I honestly don’t believe that if we had let the financial system completely collapse, we’d be in a recovery.

So far our $15 trillion economy is growing. If he had let it collapse to $12 trillion, we’d still be in the hole (that’s what peak buyers of real estate are facing; they won’t be made whole for a long time).[/quote]

Please understand that an economic recovery is NOT at all about making speculators or asset buyers whole or even profitable. An economic recovery (in my mind) means that the root causes of the downturn are purged (too much debt, and the too-high prices that were caused by all that debt). It means that people who want to work are able to find jobs that can support themselves and their families. It means that we have **stopped making all of our purchases with debt/leverage,** and are able to use our wages to buy what we need and some of what we want.

It means we are not digging ourselves a deeper hole, but filling in the hole that caused our problems in the first place.

We are nowhere near a true recovery. They are masking the symptoms of the problems, but the problems are every bit as real and as large as they were in 2008 — but with the way we’ve “financed” the bailouts, it is now the taxpayers who are taking the losses rather than the speculators who caused all the problems in the first place. THAT is what makes me so furious about all the bailouts — the wrong parties are being harmed, while the perpetrators are walking away with their cash. That is clearly very wrong.

BTW, I agree with you about where the money should have gone — infrastructure, unemployment insurance, jobs programs, etc., NOT to the financial players.

[CA renter]

[quote=jstoesz]Maybe I am some crazy doom and gloomer about our economy. But I think we are in worse shape than we were in 08 and 09. We have covered up our problems for the last 3 years in the hopes that another bubble will float them away. If we would have bottomed at 12 trillion, I think we will bottom much lower now.

We are one unsuccessful bond auction away from insolvency. And the chances of this go up every day…[/quote]

Just read this after my last post.

Again, you’ve nailed it.

[CA renter]

[quote=jstoesz]Maybe I am some crazy doom and gloomer about our economy. But I think we are in worse shape than we were in 08 and 09. We have covered up our problems for the last 3 years in the hopes that another bubble will float them away. If we would have bottomed at 12 trillion, I think we will bottom much lower now.

We are one unsuccessful bond auction away from insolvency. And the chances of this go up every day…[/quote]

Just read this after my last post.

Again, you’ve nailed it.

[CA renter]

[quote=jstoesz]Maybe I am some crazy doom and gloomer about our economy. But I think we are in worse shape than we were in 08 and 09. We have covered up our problems for the last 3 years in the hopes that another bubble will float them away. If we would have bottomed at 12 trillion, I think we will bottom much lower now.

We are one unsuccessful bond auction away from insolvency. And the chances of this go up every day…[/quote]

Just read this after my last post.

Again, you’ve nailed it.

[CA renter]

[quote=jstoesz]Maybe I am some crazy doom and gloomer about our economy. But I think we are in worse shape than we were in 08 and 09. We have covered up our problems for the last 3 years in the hopes that another bubble will float them away. If we would have bottomed at 12 trillion, I think we will bottom much lower now.

We are one unsuccessful bond auction away from insolvency. And the chances of this go up every day…[/quote]

Just read this after my last post.

Again, you’ve nailed it.

[CA renter]

[quote=jstoesz]Maybe I am some crazy doom and gloomer about our economy. But I think we are in worse shape than we were in 08 and 09. We have covered up our problems for the last 3 years in the hopes that another bubble will float them away. If we would have bottomed at 12 trillion, I think we will bottom much lower now.

We are one unsuccessful bond auction away from insolvency. And the chances of this go up every day…[/quote]

Just read this after my last post.

Again, you’ve nailed it.

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=CA renter]Also, just want to clarify…I don’t think jp or I are looking for that “special” Del Mar house that everyone else wants to buy.

There is this weird misconception on housing blogs that those of us who complain about the intervention or high prices are simply “whiners” who are looking for million-dollar properties to drop to $200K. That’s not the case with any of the bubble-sitters I’m aware of. We’re looking for very ordinary homes — no McMansions and no granite, please! — and just want prices to go to levels that are aligned with historical norms and price/rent ratios. We want prices to go where they would go without all the unprecedented intervention. That is NOT feeling “entitled” by any stretch of the imagination.[/quote]

I understand all of this. I also understand you only have 2-4 zip codes you are shopping in. Nothing wrong with this, CAR. This is the case with most buyers. But the 2-4 zip codes you are limited by are all “move-up” areas. Unless looking for a <1300 sf SFR or condo, first timers do not gravitate to the zips you are shopping in.

You're probably aware that buyers who are not first timers often have 20% - 100% cash at their disposal to make a deal, whether or not they choose to put it all down. It's not at all uncommon for a 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th timer, etc to put 30% - 40% down and take out a reasonable mortgage for the balance, according to their age and tax writeoff needs, regardless of how much cash they have at their disposal.

I agree that the areas you are looking in are not typically "all-cash" streets or oceanfront/pano ocean view properties. Most of your competition would be taking mortgages out.

Since what you are probably seeking in on tract, I think you should go to the Megan's law website ASAP and list, one by one, the offenders and their charges, date of offense, etc (does it include this info? . . . haven't looked) for each and every tract you are interested in shopping in, regardless of current inventory available in it. Keep your notes handy and when a property comes on the market you want to view and if you like what you view, go down and research the individual offenders that live nearby BEFORE you place an offer. Get their STORY if you can.

If the site (or crim. file) gives the age or DOB, and the indiv. is now 70+ years old, I don't think I'd worry too much about him being a potential predator to your children.

scaredy is right. We don't have any control over whether a sex-registrant moves in near us AFTER we have already closed escrow.

I know how much you want to buy a home for your family and am just offering some suggestions here.[/quote]

One more clarification...we (and many other bubble-sitters) are not first-time buyers.

Also, just because someone has cash does not mean that they want to spend it on overpriced assets that are being propped up by massive, unprecedented govt/central bank intervention. Believe it or not, there are cash buyers in our area, and the ones I know were afraid of inflation/currency destruction. Buying a house with cash is often a bet on anticipated currency moves. Some of us are afraid of inflation, and some are afraid of deflation. Both are very valid worries in this environment. We just have to place our bets on which side we think will win out in the long run.

One thing I can say for certain: this market is NOT based on fundamentals of any sort.

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=CA renter]Also, just want to clarify…I don’t think jp or I are looking for that “special” Del Mar house that everyone else wants to buy.

There is this weird misconception on housing blogs that those of us who complain about the intervention or high prices are simply “whiners” who are looking for million-dollar properties to drop to $200K. That’s not the case with any of the bubble-sitters I’m aware of. We’re looking for very ordinary homes — no McMansions and no granite, please! — and just want prices to go to levels that are aligned with historical norms and price/rent ratios. We want prices to go where they would go without all the unprecedented intervention. That is NOT feeling “entitled” by any stretch of the imagination.[/quote]

I understand all of this. I also understand you only have 2-4 zip codes you are shopping in. Nothing wrong with this, CAR. This is the case with most buyers. But the 2-4 zip codes you are limited by are all “move-up” areas. Unless looking for a <1300 sf SFR or condo, first timers do not gravitate to the zips you are shopping in.

You're probably aware that buyers who are not first timers often have 20% - 100% cash at their disposal to make a deal, whether or not they choose to put it all down. It's not at all uncommon for a 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th timer, etc to put 30% - 40% down and take out a reasonable mortgage for the balance, according to their age and tax writeoff needs, regardless of how much cash they have at their disposal.

I agree that the areas you are looking in are not typically "all-cash" streets or oceanfront/pano ocean view properties. Most of your competition would be taking mortgages out.

Since what you are probably seeking in on tract, I think you should go to the Megan's law website ASAP and list, one by one, the offenders and their charges, date of offense, etc (does it include this info? . . . haven't looked) for each and every tract you are interested in shopping in, regardless of current inventory available in it. Keep your notes handy and when a property comes on the market you want to view and if you like what you view, go down and research the individual offenders that live nearby BEFORE you place an offer. Get their STORY if you can.

If the site (or crim. file) gives the age or DOB, and the indiv. is now 70+ years old, I don't think I'd worry too much about him being a potential predator to your children.

scaredy is right. We don't have any control over whether a sex-registrant moves in near us AFTER we have already closed escrow.

I know how much you want to buy a home for your family and am just offering some suggestions here.[/quote]

One more clarification...we (and many other bubble-sitters) are not first-time buyers.

Also, just because someone has cash does not mean that they want to spend it on overpriced assets that are being propped up by massive, unprecedented govt/central bank intervention. Believe it or not, there are cash buyers in our area, and the ones I know were afraid of inflation/currency destruction. Buying a house with cash is often a bet on anticipated currency moves. Some of us are afraid of inflation, and some are afraid of deflation. Both are very valid worries in this environment. We just have to place our bets on which side we think will win out in the long run.

One thing I can say for certain: this market is NOT based on fundamentals of any sort.

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=CA renter]Also, just want to clarify…I don’t think jp or I are looking for that “special” Del Mar house that everyone else wants to buy.

There is this weird misconception on housing blogs that those of us who complain about the intervention or high prices are simply “whiners” who are looking for million-dollar properties to drop to $200K. That’s not the case with any of the bubble-sitters I’m aware of. We’re looking for very ordinary homes — no McMansions and no granite, please! — and just want prices to go to levels that are aligned with historical norms and price/rent ratios. We want prices to go where they would go without all the unprecedented intervention. That is NOT feeling “entitled” by any stretch of the imagination.[/quote]

I understand all of this. I also understand you only have 2-4 zip codes you are shopping in. Nothing wrong with this, CAR. This is the case with most buyers. But the 2-4 zip codes you are limited by are all “move-up” areas. Unless looking for a <1300 sf SFR or condo, first timers do not gravitate to the zips you are shopping in.

You're probably aware that buyers who are not first timers often have 20% - 100% cash at their disposal to make a deal, whether or not they choose to put it all down. It's not at all uncommon for a 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th timer, etc to put 30% - 40% down and take out a reasonable mortgage for the balance, according to their age and tax writeoff needs, regardless of how much cash they have at their disposal.

I agree that the areas you are looking in are not typically "all-cash" streets or oceanfront/pano ocean view properties. Most of your competition would be taking mortgages out.

Since what you are probably seeking in on tract, I think you should go to the Megan's law website ASAP and list, one by one, the offenders and their charges, date of offense, etc (does it include this info? . . . haven't looked) for each and every tract you are interested in shopping in, regardless of current inventory available in it. Keep your notes handy and when a property comes on the market you want to view and if you like what you view, go down and research the individual offenders that live nearby BEFORE you place an offer. Get their STORY if you can.

If the site (or crim. file) gives the age or DOB, and the indiv. is now 70+ years old, I don't think I'd worry too much about him being a potential predator to your children.

scaredy is right. We don't have any control over whether a sex-registrant moves in near us AFTER we have already closed escrow.

I know how much you want to buy a home for your family and am just offering some suggestions here.[/quote]

One more clarification...we (and many other bubble-sitters) are not first-time buyers.

Also, just because someone has cash does not mean that they want to spend it on overpriced assets that are being propped up by massive, unprecedented govt/central bank intervention. Believe it or not, there are cash buyers in our area, and the ones I know were afraid of inflation/currency destruction. Buying a house with cash is often a bet on anticipated currency moves. Some of us are afraid of inflation, and some are afraid of deflation. Both are very valid worries in this environment. We just have to place our bets on which side we think will win out in the long run.

One thing I can say for certain: this market is NOT based on fundamentals of any sort.

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=CA renter]Also, just want to clarify…I don’t think jp or I are looking for that “special” Del Mar house that everyone else wants to buy.

There is this weird misconception on housing blogs that those of us who complain about the intervention or high prices are simply “whiners” who are looking for million-dollar properties to drop to $200K. That’s not the case with any of the bubble-sitters I’m aware of. We’re looking for very ordinary homes — no McMansions and no granite, please! — and just want prices to go to levels that are aligned with historical norms and price/rent ratios. We want prices to go where they would go without all the unprecedented intervention. That is NOT feeling “entitled” by any stretch of the imagination.[/quote]

I understand all of this. I also understand you only have 2-4 zip codes you are shopping in. Nothing wrong with this, CAR. This is the case with most buyers. But the 2-4 zip codes you are limited by are all “move-up” areas. Unless looking for a <1300 sf SFR or condo, first timers do not gravitate to the zips you are shopping in.

You're probably aware that buyers who are not first timers often have 20% - 100% cash at their disposal to make a deal, whether or not they choose to put it all down. It's not at all uncommon for a 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th timer, etc to put 30% - 40% down and take out a reasonable mortgage for the balance, according to their age and tax writeoff needs, regardless of how much cash they have at their disposal.

I agree that the areas you are looking in are not typically "all-cash" streets or oceanfront/pano ocean view properties. Most of your competition would be taking mortgages out.

Since what you are probably seeking in on tract, I think you should go to the Megan's law website ASAP and list, one by one, the offenders and their charges, date of offense, etc (does it include this info? . . . haven't looked) for each and every tract you are interested in shopping in, regardless of current inventory available in it. Keep your notes handy and when a property comes on the market you want to view and if you like what you view, go down and research the individual offenders that live nearby BEFORE you place an offer. Get their STORY if you can.

If the site (or crim. file) gives the age or DOB, and the indiv. is now 70+ years old, I don't think I'd worry too much about him being a potential predator to your children.

scaredy is right. We don't have any control over whether a sex-registrant moves in near us AFTER we have already closed escrow.

I know how much you want to buy a home for your family and am just offering some suggestions here.[/quote]

One more clarification...we (and many other bubble-sitters) are not first-time buyers.

Also, just because someone has cash does not mean that they want to spend it on overpriced assets that are being propped up by massive, unprecedented govt/central bank intervention. Believe it or not, there are cash buyers in our area, and the ones I know were afraid of inflation/currency destruction. Buying a house with cash is often a bet on anticipated currency moves. Some of us are afraid of inflation, and some are afraid of deflation. Both are very valid worries in this environment. We just have to place our bets on which side we think will win out in the long run.

One thing I can say for certain: this market is NOT based on fundamentals of any sort.

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=CA renter]Also, just want to clarify…I don’t think jp or I are looking for that “special” Del Mar house that everyone else wants to buy.

There is this weird misconception on housing blogs that those of us who complain about the intervention or high prices are simply “whiners” who are looking for million-dollar properties to drop to $200K. That’s not the case with any of the bubble-sitters I’m aware of. We’re looking for very ordinary homes — no McMansions and no granite, please! — and just want prices to go to levels that are aligned with historical norms and price/rent ratios. We want prices to go where they would go without all the unprecedented intervention. That is NOT feeling “entitled” by any stretch of the imagination.[/quote]

I understand all of this. I also understand you only have 2-4 zip codes you are shopping in. Nothing wrong with this, CAR. This is the case with most buyers. But the 2-4 zip codes you are limited by are all “move-up” areas. Unless looking for a <1300 sf SFR or condo, first timers do not gravitate to the zips you are shopping in.

You're probably aware that buyers who are not first timers often have 20% - 100% cash at their disposal to make a deal, whether or not they choose to put it all down. It's not at all uncommon for a 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th timer, etc to put 30% - 40% down and take out a reasonable mortgage for the balance, according to their age and tax writeoff needs, regardless of how much cash they have at their disposal.

I agree that the areas you are looking in are not typically "all-cash" streets or oceanfront/pano ocean view properties. Most of your competition would be taking mortgages out.

Since what you are probably seeking in on tract, I think you should go to the Megan's law website ASAP and list, one by one, the offenders and their charges, date of offense, etc (does it include this info? . . . haven't looked) for each and every tract you are interested in shopping in, regardless of current inventory available in it. Keep your notes handy and when a property comes on the market you want to view and if you like what you view, go down and research the individual offenders that live nearby BEFORE you place an offer. Get their STORY if you can.

If the site (or crim. file) gives the age or DOB, and the indiv. is now 70+ years old, I don't think I'd worry too much about him being a potential predator to your children.

scaredy is right. We don't have any control over whether a sex-registrant moves in near us AFTER we have already closed escrow.

I know how much you want to buy a home for your family and am just offering some suggestions here.[/quote]

One more clarification...we (and many other bubble-sitters) are not first-time buyers.

Also, just because someone has cash does not mean that they want to spend it on overpriced assets that are being propped up by massive, unprecedented govt/central bank intervention. Believe it or not, there are cash buyers in our area, and the ones I know were afraid of inflation/currency destruction. Buying a house with cash is often a bet on anticipated currency moves. Some of us are afraid of inflation, and some are afraid of deflation. Both are very valid worries in this environment. We just have to place our bets on which side we think will win out in the long run.

One thing I can say for certain: this market is NOT based on fundamentals of any sort.

[no_such_reality]

[quote=CA renter][quote=jstoesz]Maybe I am some crazy doom and gloomer about our economy. But I think we are in worse shape than we were in 08 and 09. We have covered up our problems for the last 3 years in the hopes that another bubble will float them away. If we would have bottomed at 12 trillion, I think we will bottom much lower now.

We are one unsuccessful bond auction away from insolvency. And the chances of this go up every day…[/quote]

Just read this after my last post.

Again, you’ve nailed it.[/quote]

And if that happens, you’ll be wishing you were a survivor in a zombie apocalypse.

[no_such_reality]

[quote=CA renter][quote=jstoesz]Maybe I am some crazy doom and gloomer about our economy. But I think we are in worse shape than we were in 08 and 09. We have covered up our problems for the last 3 years in the hopes that another bubble will float them away. If we would have bottomed at 12 trillion, I think we will bottom much lower now.

We are one unsuccessful bond auction away from insolvency. And the chances of this go up every day…[/quote]

Just read this after my last post.

Again, you’ve nailed it.[/quote]

And if that happens, you’ll be wishing you were a survivor in a zombie apocalypse.

[no_such_reality]

[quote=CA renter][quote=jstoesz]Maybe I am some crazy doom and gloomer about our economy. But I think we are in worse shape than we were in 08 and 09. We have covered up our problems for the last 3 years in the hopes that another bubble will float them away. If we would have bottomed at 12 trillion, I think we will bottom much lower now.

We are one unsuccessful bond auction away from insolvency. And the chances of this go up every day…[/quote]

Just read this after my last post.

Again, you’ve nailed it.[/quote]

And if that happens, you’ll be wishing you were a survivor in a zombie apocalypse.

[no_such_reality]

[quote=CA renter][quote=jstoesz]Maybe I am some crazy doom and gloomer about our economy. But I think we are in worse shape than we were in 08 and 09. We have covered up our problems for the last 3 years in the hopes that another bubble will float them away. If we would have bottomed at 12 trillion, I think we will bottom much lower now.

We are one unsuccessful bond auction away from insolvency. And the chances of this go up every day…[/quote]

Just read this after my last post.

Again, you’ve nailed it.[/quote]

And if that happens, you’ll be wishing you were a survivor in a zombie apocalypse.

[Author]

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