Why Borrowers May Not Benefit From Rate Cut

[RatherOpinionated]

(From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL) 12/12
By Jane J. Kim
Not all borrowers are benefiting from the Fed’s moves to cut interest rates.
The problem: Loans that are tied to a variety of interest-rate benchmarks —
some of which aren’t necessarily moving in lockstep with Fed action.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates by a quarter of
a percentage point to 4.25% — the central bank’s third rate cut since
mid-September — to help ease the credit crunch and reduce the economy’s
chances of falling into a recession. The moves have helped some borrowers who
have seen interest rates on their credit cards and home-equity lines of credit
fall. Interest rates on many fixed-rate mortgages also have dropped amid a
decline in Treasury yields as investors sought out safe investments.
But rates remain stubbornly high on other loans, including student debt and
many adjustable-rate loans made to the same type of subprime borrowers whose
troubles are now reverberating throughout the global financial system. These
rates remain high because many of these loans are tied to the London interbank
offered rate, or Libor, and not to more conventional interest-rate benchmarks
such as Treasurys or banks’ prime rate.
Libor, which is an interest rate banks charge on loans to each other,
normally tracks the federal-funds rate closely. But continuing worries over
the credit crisis have kept Libor unusually high — partly because banks are
reluctant to lend to one another — even as other short-term interest rates
have fallen in recent months. The U.S. dollar three-month Libor yesterday was
5.11%, down from 5.36% in late June. Over the same period, three-month
Treasury bill yields have fallen much more steeply, to 2.95% from 4.8%. “The
Libor spread is screaming that there is a big, big stress point in the banking
system,” says James Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC, a
market-research firm in Chicago.
Borrowers may need to read the fine print of their loan agreement or contact
their lender to know what benchmark their loan is tied to. The biggest impact
is likely to be felt among borrowers with ARMs that are about to reset. “If
you have a Libor-indexed ARM and you’re facing a reset, that’s going to be
very disadvantageous because of the divergence between the Libor and Treasury
yields,” says Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com.
For example, consumers with an ARM whose annual reset rate is linked to
one-year Libor are likely to see their interest rate jump to 6.75% or more. By
contrast, a similar loan that’s linked to one-year Treasurys is likely to
reset to a rate that’s about 5.75%, he says.
Libor is frequently used to set rates for ARMs made to subprime borrowers —
mainly people with scuffed credit — as well as many ARMs that fall into the
“jumbo loan” category, which currently refers to most mortgages for $417,000
or more, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president of mortgage-tracker HSH
Associates. Also, roughly half of non-subprime ARMs that were originated in
recent years are tied to Libor, he estimates.
The higher Libor rates complicate the Fed’s efforts to assist troubled
borrowers and prevent problems related to the housing crisis from spreading
further through the economy.
“The more problems we have in the subprime-mortgage market, the more the
likelihood of defaults and foreclosures,” says Ray Stone of Stone & McCarthy
Research Associates. The federal government has outlined a “rate freeze”
program that calls on mortgage servicers to modify certain subprime-mortgage
loans to avoid foreclosure.
A recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that the
six-month Libor rate will determine the reset rates for an estimated 99% of
subprime ARMs and 38% of Alt-A ARMs in the U.S. that have been securitized. A
further 1% of subprime ARMs and 22% of Alt-A ARMs will reset based on the
one-year Libor rate. Alt-A is a category between prime and subprime that often
involves borrowers who don’t fully document their income or assets.
In recent years, lenders began pegging a greater percentage of loans to
Libor as more of this debt was securitized and sold to investors around the
world, analysts say. Since Libor is a global interest-rate benchmark,
investors have an easier time hedging their interest-rate risk because their
investments are pegged to a common index, says Bankrate.com’s Mr. McBride.
Another factor: Since the U.S. Treasury Department stopped selling one-year
Treasurys in 2001, more lenders started tying their hybrid adjustable-rate
mortgages to Libor because they believed the Libor index more accurately
reflected their funding costs over time than other benchmarks, says Lou
Barnes, partner at Boulder West Financial Services, a Colorado mortgage bank.
Other Libor-based loans include certain types of student loans. About half
of student lenders peg their private, variable-rate student loans to Libor.
The best rates on private student loans are typically prime minus one
percentage point or Libor plus 1.8 percentage point, says Mark Kantrowitz,
publisher of FinAid.org, a financial-aid Web site. Normally, those rates are
very similar, but right now, Libor-based rates are a little bit higher, he
says.
That doesn’t mean borrowers with Libor-linked loans should jump to other
types of loans. Private student loans pegged to Libor, for example, have
historically tended to charge a slightly lower rate than loans tied to prime
over the life of the loan, says Mr. Kantrowitz.
Homeowners, on the other hand, may be better off in Treasury-linked ARMs
over Libor-linked products, if both are available on comparable mortgages.
Historically, in times of credit crisis, Libor rates have tended to spike,
says Mr. Barnes, the mortgage banker. But Treasury yields at such times often
are driven down by investors seeking safe investments, he says.
One bright spot for savers: Higher Libor rates have helped sustain healthy
returns in money-market mutual funds. These funds’ holdings of Libor-linked
debt have helped to offset declining yields on other investments. An estimated
20% to 25% of money-market assets are in floating-rate debt, much of which is
linked to Libor, says Peter Crane of Crane Data LLC. That has helped to keep
average yields on money-market mutual funds, currently about 4.57%, about a
quarter of a percentage point higher than they would normally be in the
current interest-rate environment.
The Fed rate cuts have helped borrowers of some other types of loans,
especially those tied to banks’ prime rate. Average rates on home-equity lines
of credit have dropped to 7.60% from 8.25% in early September, while
variable-rate credit cards are now charging 13.46% on average, down from
13.97%, according to Bankrate.com.
—
Rate Expectations

Not all loan rates have tracked the Fed cuts. Here’s what to expect:

— Borrowers with ARMs tied to Libor aren’t seeing much relief.

— Yields on money-market funds holding Libor-linked debt haven’t dropped
as quickly.

— Expect lower rates on home-equity lines of credit and some credit cards.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Not all loan rates have tracked the Fed cuts. Here’s what to expect:

— Borrowers with ARMs tied to Libor aren’t seeing much relief.

This is simply Not true.

The 1-year LIBOR stood at 5.425% in July 2007.
It is currently at 4.46%.
reference
http://www.moneycafe.com/library/libor.htm

That’s almost a full point in relief for ARMS tied to 12-month LIBOR.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Not all loan rates have tracked the Fed cuts. Here’s what to expect:

— Borrowers with ARMs tied to Libor aren’t seeing much relief.

This is simply Not true.

The 1-year LIBOR stood at 5.425% in July 2007.
It is currently at 4.46%.
reference
http://www.moneycafe.com/library/libor.htm

That’s almost a full point in relief for ARMS tied to 12-month LIBOR.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Not all loan rates have tracked the Fed cuts. Here’s what to expect:

— Borrowers with ARMs tied to Libor aren’t seeing much relief.

This is simply Not true.

The 1-year LIBOR stood at 5.425% in July 2007.
It is currently at 4.46%.
reference
http://www.moneycafe.com/library/libor.htm

That’s almost a full point in relief for ARMS tied to 12-month LIBOR.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Not all loan rates have tracked the Fed cuts. Here’s what to expect:

— Borrowers with ARMs tied to Libor aren’t seeing much relief.

This is simply Not true.

The 1-year LIBOR stood at 5.425% in July 2007.
It is currently at 4.46%.
reference
http://www.moneycafe.com/library/libor.htm

That’s almost a full point in relief for ARMS tied to 12-month LIBOR.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Not all loan rates have tracked the Fed cuts. Here’s what to expect:

— Borrowers with ARMs tied to Libor aren’t seeing much relief.

This is simply Not true.

The 1-year LIBOR stood at 5.425% in July 2007.
It is currently at 4.46%.
reference
http://www.moneycafe.com/library/libor.htm

That’s almost a full point in relief for ARMS tied to 12-month LIBOR.

[DaCounselor]

FSD is right. The Libor spread has been pretty high, but after we get through year-end and in conjunction with the money-drop announced today (which is not likely to be the last) I expect the spread to contract. My wild guess and I don’t think I’m venturing too far out on a limb is that we will see more Fed cuts as we enter ’08. I think we will ease to 3.5 and see a Libor spread contraction and the 6 mo. and 1 yr. Libor both below 4.0.

My 2 top mortgage broker sources maintain that they sold a ton of 3/1 and 5/1 10 yr. IO ARMS in ’04 and ’05 with initial rates in the 5.5-5.75 range, 1 yr Libor index with 2.0-2.25 margins. From the looks of where we are headed, these loan resets may result in minimal if any payment increases. In addition, if they are on the front end of an 80/20 package with (as I’m told) a HELOC 2nd tied to the prime rate plus a 2.0-2.25 margin, well, the payments on the 2nd have been falling since the first Fed cut, and again are likely to fall further as we go forward.

So the question begged is what percentage of the impending resets are on these types of loans, where the payment adjustment will be minimal if any on the 1st and is actually falling on the 2nd? This I do not know.

[DaCounselor]

FSD is right. The Libor spread has been pretty high, but after we get through year-end and in conjunction with the money-drop announced today (which is not likely to be the last) I expect the spread to contract. My wild guess and I don’t think I’m venturing too far out on a limb is that we will see more Fed cuts as we enter ’08. I think we will ease to 3.5 and see a Libor spread contraction and the 6 mo. and 1 yr. Libor both below 4.0.

My 2 top mortgage broker sources maintain that they sold a ton of 3/1 and 5/1 10 yr. IO ARMS in ’04 and ’05 with initial rates in the 5.5-5.75 range, 1 yr Libor index with 2.0-2.25 margins. From the looks of where we are headed, these loan resets may result in minimal if any payment increases. In addition, if they are on the front end of an 80/20 package with (as I’m told) a HELOC 2nd tied to the prime rate plus a 2.0-2.25 margin, well, the payments on the 2nd have been falling since the first Fed cut, and again are likely to fall further as we go forward.

So the question begged is what percentage of the impending resets are on these types of loans, where the payment adjustment will be minimal if any on the 1st and is actually falling on the 2nd? This I do not know.

[DaCounselor]

FSD is right. The Libor spread has been pretty high, but after we get through year-end and in conjunction with the money-drop announced today (which is not likely to be the last) I expect the spread to contract. My wild guess and I don’t think I’m venturing too far out on a limb is that we will see more Fed cuts as we enter ’08. I think we will ease to 3.5 and see a Libor spread contraction and the 6 mo. and 1 yr. Libor both below 4.0.

My 2 top mortgage broker sources maintain that they sold a ton of 3/1 and 5/1 10 yr. IO ARMS in ’04 and ’05 with initial rates in the 5.5-5.75 range, 1 yr Libor index with 2.0-2.25 margins. From the looks of where we are headed, these loan resets may result in minimal if any payment increases. In addition, if they are on the front end of an 80/20 package with (as I’m told) a HELOC 2nd tied to the prime rate plus a 2.0-2.25 margin, well, the payments on the 2nd have been falling since the first Fed cut, and again are likely to fall further as we go forward.

So the question begged is what percentage of the impending resets are on these types of loans, where the payment adjustment will be minimal if any on the 1st and is actually falling on the 2nd? This I do not know.

[DaCounselor]

FSD is right. The Libor spread has been pretty high, but after we get through year-end and in conjunction with the money-drop announced today (which is not likely to be the last) I expect the spread to contract. My wild guess and I don’t think I’m venturing too far out on a limb is that we will see more Fed cuts as we enter ’08. I think we will ease to 3.5 and see a Libor spread contraction and the 6 mo. and 1 yr. Libor both below 4.0.

My 2 top mortgage broker sources maintain that they sold a ton of 3/1 and 5/1 10 yr. IO ARMS in ’04 and ’05 with initial rates in the 5.5-5.75 range, 1 yr Libor index with 2.0-2.25 margins. From the looks of where we are headed, these loan resets may result in minimal if any payment increases. In addition, if they are on the front end of an 80/20 package with (as I’m told) a HELOC 2nd tied to the prime rate plus a 2.0-2.25 margin, well, the payments on the 2nd have been falling since the first Fed cut, and again are likely to fall further as we go forward.

So the question begged is what percentage of the impending resets are on these types of loans, where the payment adjustment will be minimal if any on the 1st and is actually falling on the 2nd? This I do not know.

[DaCounselor]

FSD is right. The Libor spread has been pretty high, but after we get through year-end and in conjunction with the money-drop announced today (which is not likely to be the last) I expect the spread to contract. My wild guess and I don’t think I’m venturing too far out on a limb is that we will see more Fed cuts as we enter ’08. I think we will ease to 3.5 and see a Libor spread contraction and the 6 mo. and 1 yr. Libor both below 4.0.

My 2 top mortgage broker sources maintain that they sold a ton of 3/1 and 5/1 10 yr. IO ARMS in ’04 and ’05 with initial rates in the 5.5-5.75 range, 1 yr Libor index with 2.0-2.25 margins. From the looks of where we are headed, these loan resets may result in minimal if any payment increases. In addition, if they are on the front end of an 80/20 package with (as I’m told) a HELOC 2nd tied to the prime rate plus a 2.0-2.25 margin, well, the payments on the 2nd have been falling since the first Fed cut, and again are likely to fall further as we go forward.

So the question begged is what percentage of the impending resets are on these types of loans, where the payment adjustment will be minimal if any on the 1st and is actually falling on the 2nd? This I do not know.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

DaCounselor – Thanks for the info. There has been much hay made with respect to the mortgage reset chart. Many of the resets for sub-prime as well as Alt-a and prime that occurred in 2006 and 2007 were huge jumps, and the resulting jumps in foreclosures are influenced by those in concert with declining prices.

Many have speculated that the second wave of loan resets coming in the next 12 months will be worse than the effect of the resets thus far. However, people need to consider the potential that many alt-A and prime borrowers with loan resets in 2008-2009 will not be hit nearly as hard as the sub-prime folks circa 2006.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

DaCounselor – Thanks for the info. There has been much hay made with respect to the mortgage reset chart. Many of the resets for sub-prime as well as Alt-a and prime that occurred in 2006 and 2007 were huge jumps, and the resulting jumps in foreclosures are influenced by those in concert with declining prices.

Many have speculated that the second wave of loan resets coming in the next 12 months will be worse than the effect of the resets thus far. However, people need to consider the potential that many alt-A and prime borrowers with loan resets in 2008-2009 will not be hit nearly as hard as the sub-prime folks circa 2006.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

DaCounselor – Thanks for the info. There has been much hay made with respect to the mortgage reset chart. Many of the resets for sub-prime as well as Alt-a and prime that occurred in 2006 and 2007 were huge jumps, and the resulting jumps in foreclosures are influenced by those in concert with declining prices.

Many have speculated that the second wave of loan resets coming in the next 12 months will be worse than the effect of the resets thus far. However, people need to consider the potential that many alt-A and prime borrowers with loan resets in 2008-2009 will not be hit nearly as hard as the sub-prime folks circa 2006.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

DaCounselor – Thanks for the info. There has been much hay made with respect to the mortgage reset chart. Many of the resets for sub-prime as well as Alt-a and prime that occurred in 2006 and 2007 were huge jumps, and the resulting jumps in foreclosures are influenced by those in concert with declining prices.

Many have speculated that the second wave of loan resets coming in the next 12 months will be worse than the effect of the resets thus far. However, people need to consider the potential that many alt-A and prime borrowers with loan resets in 2008-2009 will not be hit nearly as hard as the sub-prime folks circa 2006.

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