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July 13, 2008 at 8:51 AM #238664July 13, 2008 at 8:56 AM #238469EconProfParticipant
Here’s a doomsday scenario that, while not likely, could play itself out in the next few days or weeks as a result of the IndyMac failure. Consider these events:
1. The many depositors with over $100k in their IndyMac accounts are SOL.
2. Depositors in other smaller and weaker banks across the country with over FDIC limits in their accounts panic and withdraw.
3. The weakest banks (Downey, WaMu, Wachovia, etc.) face the biggest flood of withdrawals.
4. The strongest banks get stronger, the weakest fail. (note to stocktradr: Go long on Wells, short Wachovia).
Whether this happens or not, we’ll know in a few days.July 13, 2008 at 8:56 AM #238604EconProfParticipantHere’s a doomsday scenario that, while not likely, could play itself out in the next few days or weeks as a result of the IndyMac failure. Consider these events:
1. The many depositors with over $100k in their IndyMac accounts are SOL.
2. Depositors in other smaller and weaker banks across the country with over FDIC limits in their accounts panic and withdraw.
3. The weakest banks (Downey, WaMu, Wachovia, etc.) face the biggest flood of withdrawals.
4. The strongest banks get stronger, the weakest fail. (note to stocktradr: Go long on Wells, short Wachovia).
Whether this happens or not, we’ll know in a few days.July 13, 2008 at 8:56 AM #238612EconProfParticipantHere’s a doomsday scenario that, while not likely, could play itself out in the next few days or weeks as a result of the IndyMac failure. Consider these events:
1. The many depositors with over $100k in their IndyMac accounts are SOL.
2. Depositors in other smaller and weaker banks across the country with over FDIC limits in their accounts panic and withdraw.
3. The weakest banks (Downey, WaMu, Wachovia, etc.) face the biggest flood of withdrawals.
4. The strongest banks get stronger, the weakest fail. (note to stocktradr: Go long on Wells, short Wachovia).
Whether this happens or not, we’ll know in a few days.July 13, 2008 at 8:56 AM #238662EconProfParticipantHere’s a doomsday scenario that, while not likely, could play itself out in the next few days or weeks as a result of the IndyMac failure. Consider these events:
1. The many depositors with over $100k in their IndyMac accounts are SOL.
2. Depositors in other smaller and weaker banks across the country with over FDIC limits in their accounts panic and withdraw.
3. The weakest banks (Downey, WaMu, Wachovia, etc.) face the biggest flood of withdrawals.
4. The strongest banks get stronger, the weakest fail. (note to stocktradr: Go long on Wells, short Wachovia).
Whether this happens or not, we’ll know in a few days.July 13, 2008 at 8:56 AM #238674EconProfParticipantHere’s a doomsday scenario that, while not likely, could play itself out in the next few days or weeks as a result of the IndyMac failure. Consider these events:
1. The many depositors with over $100k in their IndyMac accounts are SOL.
2. Depositors in other smaller and weaker banks across the country with over FDIC limits in their accounts panic and withdraw.
3. The weakest banks (Downey, WaMu, Wachovia, etc.) face the biggest flood of withdrawals.
4. The strongest banks get stronger, the weakest fail. (note to stocktradr: Go long on Wells, short Wachovia).
Whether this happens or not, we’ll know in a few days.July 13, 2008 at 9:01 AM #238474crParticipantAll along this deflating bubble we’ve heard the argument there will never be another Great Depression. Given the size of our country now, it’s diversification, the international marketplace and of course the government’s assurances, I’ve bought the argument.
Now I’m not so sure. A run on the banks helped cause the GD, and now the banks are running out of money on their own. New manufacturing jobs helped end the GD and circulate wealth domestically. Now we import everything, and continue reducing mfg jobs. Granted our trade deficit is actually declining slightly due to a weak dollar, but there is no massive untapped job source or labor force.
What bank is next? I agree on WaMu, and that may start a bank run despite the FDIC.
SunTrust? KeyCorp?
July 13, 2008 at 9:01 AM #238609crParticipantAll along this deflating bubble we’ve heard the argument there will never be another Great Depression. Given the size of our country now, it’s diversification, the international marketplace and of course the government’s assurances, I’ve bought the argument.
Now I’m not so sure. A run on the banks helped cause the GD, and now the banks are running out of money on their own. New manufacturing jobs helped end the GD and circulate wealth domestically. Now we import everything, and continue reducing mfg jobs. Granted our trade deficit is actually declining slightly due to a weak dollar, but there is no massive untapped job source or labor force.
What bank is next? I agree on WaMu, and that may start a bank run despite the FDIC.
SunTrust? KeyCorp?
July 13, 2008 at 9:01 AM #238617crParticipantAll along this deflating bubble we’ve heard the argument there will never be another Great Depression. Given the size of our country now, it’s diversification, the international marketplace and of course the government’s assurances, I’ve bought the argument.
Now I’m not so sure. A run on the banks helped cause the GD, and now the banks are running out of money on their own. New manufacturing jobs helped end the GD and circulate wealth domestically. Now we import everything, and continue reducing mfg jobs. Granted our trade deficit is actually declining slightly due to a weak dollar, but there is no massive untapped job source or labor force.
What bank is next? I agree on WaMu, and that may start a bank run despite the FDIC.
SunTrust? KeyCorp?
July 13, 2008 at 9:01 AM #238667crParticipantAll along this deflating bubble we’ve heard the argument there will never be another Great Depression. Given the size of our country now, it’s diversification, the international marketplace and of course the government’s assurances, I’ve bought the argument.
Now I’m not so sure. A run on the banks helped cause the GD, and now the banks are running out of money on their own. New manufacturing jobs helped end the GD and circulate wealth domestically. Now we import everything, and continue reducing mfg jobs. Granted our trade deficit is actually declining slightly due to a weak dollar, but there is no massive untapped job source or labor force.
What bank is next? I agree on WaMu, and that may start a bank run despite the FDIC.
SunTrust? KeyCorp?
July 13, 2008 at 9:01 AM #238679crParticipantAll along this deflating bubble we’ve heard the argument there will never be another Great Depression. Given the size of our country now, it’s diversification, the international marketplace and of course the government’s assurances, I’ve bought the argument.
Now I’m not so sure. A run on the banks helped cause the GD, and now the banks are running out of money on their own. New manufacturing jobs helped end the GD and circulate wealth domestically. Now we import everything, and continue reducing mfg jobs. Granted our trade deficit is actually declining slightly due to a weak dollar, but there is no massive untapped job source or labor force.
What bank is next? I agree on WaMu, and that may start a bank run despite the FDIC.
SunTrust? KeyCorp?
July 13, 2008 at 9:07 AM #238489RaybyrnesParticipantBubblesitter
“I’m kicking myself for not doing a short play last year when the writing on the wall was so clear for WaMu.”
Why not short it now? 5 to 0 is still a profitable trade. I can tell you that there is currently a run on the bank.Large depositors have been pulling their money out big time this week. That is going to put the dowward spiral in hyper mode. Next week is going to be an interesting week. I am wondering what the government is going to do to keep our banking industry from completely melting down.
July 13, 2008 at 9:07 AM #238624RaybyrnesParticipantBubblesitter
“I’m kicking myself for not doing a short play last year when the writing on the wall was so clear for WaMu.”
Why not short it now? 5 to 0 is still a profitable trade. I can tell you that there is currently a run on the bank.Large depositors have been pulling their money out big time this week. That is going to put the dowward spiral in hyper mode. Next week is going to be an interesting week. I am wondering what the government is going to do to keep our banking industry from completely melting down.
July 13, 2008 at 9:07 AM #238630RaybyrnesParticipantBubblesitter
“I’m kicking myself for not doing a short play last year when the writing on the wall was so clear for WaMu.”
Why not short it now? 5 to 0 is still a profitable trade. I can tell you that there is currently a run on the bank.Large depositors have been pulling their money out big time this week. That is going to put the dowward spiral in hyper mode. Next week is going to be an interesting week. I am wondering what the government is going to do to keep our banking industry from completely melting down.
July 13, 2008 at 9:07 AM #238683RaybyrnesParticipantBubblesitter
“I’m kicking myself for not doing a short play last year when the writing on the wall was so clear for WaMu.”
Why not short it now? 5 to 0 is still a profitable trade. I can tell you that there is currently a run on the bank.Large depositors have been pulling their money out big time this week. That is going to put the dowward spiral in hyper mode. Next week is going to be an interesting week. I am wondering what the government is going to do to keep our banking industry from completely melting down.
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