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May 10, 2008 at 8:30 PM #202347May 11, 2008 at 4:20 PM #202453
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi nyb –
I live in Scripps and specialize in the I15 corridor. I know La Costa Valley and the coastal areas very well but I would not say I am a specialist in these areas. Same goes with the what I call the eastern rim which includes Cielo, Crosby etc.. Both Jim Klinge and sdr have offices that are in the north county coastal area and would be considered neighborhood experts in those regions. Not sure if the EXACT submarket they focus in is RSF or not. They can comment.
As far as submitting a 15-20% lowball offer to any of the listings in the Crosby I would say that you would have a better chance of success in July then May. That may not preclude you from trying though. Each listing needs to be analyzed in terms of length on the market, level of distress or possible distress, etc… With that said, could it hurt to lob them an offer? No I don’t think it could at all. One thing for sure, you never know if you don’t try right? Also you let them know politely that you don’t mean to be insulting or anything like that, and if they don’t take it you check back in a few weeks.
As for the a sample of Crosby dues let’s look at the 16991 Going My Way home that was originally at 1.579 and is now 1.399. It has been on the market 285 days. They slid the price down a few times at the end of 07 and the beginning of 08 but have not budged since then. Are they due for another notch down? Absolutely. Will they notch it down 20%? My read on sellers like this is not a chance. Now I am only looking at one mapcode within the Crosby which is 1169 A2 and there have been 2 closed sales in all of 08 back in Feb. There are NO pendings and there are 7 active listings. Similarly this same listing was listed last year and expired. So to say these guys have been on the market a long time is an understatement. Are these sellers potentially in distress? Potentially they are.
As for your costs of living there? Right now they list the HOA at 475 a month and 6500 a year MR. If you got it for say 1.2M just to use a nice number you are looking at a minimum of 2k a month between property tax, hoa and mr. So that is what, 1.8%? I am to lazy to bring up the calc tool on my laptop…
Anyways like all of the high end stuff… I see these places all coming down… eventually… as they do come down they will get slurped up by people with money… so it will take awhile to get something for a million but no way does it hurt to try.
SD Realtor
May 11, 2008 at 4:20 PM #202499ParticipantHi nyb –
I live in Scripps and specialize in the I15 corridor. I know La Costa Valley and the coastal areas very well but I would not say I am a specialist in these areas. Same goes with the what I call the eastern rim which includes Cielo, Crosby etc.. Both Jim Klinge and sdr have offices that are in the north county coastal area and would be considered neighborhood experts in those regions. Not sure if the EXACT submarket they focus in is RSF or not. They can comment.
As far as submitting a 15-20% lowball offer to any of the listings in the Crosby I would say that you would have a better chance of success in July then May. That may not preclude you from trying though. Each listing needs to be analyzed in terms of length on the market, level of distress or possible distress, etc… With that said, could it hurt to lob them an offer? No I don’t think it could at all. One thing for sure, you never know if you don’t try right? Also you let them know politely that you don’t mean to be insulting or anything like that, and if they don’t take it you check back in a few weeks.
As for the a sample of Crosby dues let’s look at the 16991 Going My Way home that was originally at 1.579 and is now 1.399. It has been on the market 285 days. They slid the price down a few times at the end of 07 and the beginning of 08 but have not budged since then. Are they due for another notch down? Absolutely. Will they notch it down 20%? My read on sellers like this is not a chance. Now I am only looking at one mapcode within the Crosby which is 1169 A2 and there have been 2 closed sales in all of 08 back in Feb. There are NO pendings and there are 7 active listings. Similarly this same listing was listed last year and expired. So to say these guys have been on the market a long time is an understatement. Are these sellers potentially in distress? Potentially they are.
As for your costs of living there? Right now they list the HOA at 475 a month and 6500 a year MR. If you got it for say 1.2M just to use a nice number you are looking at a minimum of 2k a month between property tax, hoa and mr. So that is what, 1.8%? I am to lazy to bring up the calc tool on my laptop…
Anyways like all of the high end stuff… I see these places all coming down… eventually… as they do come down they will get slurped up by people with money… so it will take awhile to get something for a million but no way does it hurt to try.
SD Realtor
May 11, 2008 at 4:20 PM #202526ParticipantHi nyb –
I live in Scripps and specialize in the I15 corridor. I know La Costa Valley and the coastal areas very well but I would not say I am a specialist in these areas. Same goes with the what I call the eastern rim which includes Cielo, Crosby etc.. Both Jim Klinge and sdr have offices that are in the north county coastal area and would be considered neighborhood experts in those regions. Not sure if the EXACT submarket they focus in is RSF or not. They can comment.
As far as submitting a 15-20% lowball offer to any of the listings in the Crosby I would say that you would have a better chance of success in July then May. That may not preclude you from trying though. Each listing needs to be analyzed in terms of length on the market, level of distress or possible distress, etc… With that said, could it hurt to lob them an offer? No I don’t think it could at all. One thing for sure, you never know if you don’t try right? Also you let them know politely that you don’t mean to be insulting or anything like that, and if they don’t take it you check back in a few weeks.
As for the a sample of Crosby dues let’s look at the 16991 Going My Way home that was originally at 1.579 and is now 1.399. It has been on the market 285 days. They slid the price down a few times at the end of 07 and the beginning of 08 but have not budged since then. Are they due for another notch down? Absolutely. Will they notch it down 20%? My read on sellers like this is not a chance. Now I am only looking at one mapcode within the Crosby which is 1169 A2 and there have been 2 closed sales in all of 08 back in Feb. There are NO pendings and there are 7 active listings. Similarly this same listing was listed last year and expired. So to say these guys have been on the market a long time is an understatement. Are these sellers potentially in distress? Potentially they are.
As for your costs of living there? Right now they list the HOA at 475 a month and 6500 a year MR. If you got it for say 1.2M just to use a nice number you are looking at a minimum of 2k a month between property tax, hoa and mr. So that is what, 1.8%? I am to lazy to bring up the calc tool on my laptop…
Anyways like all of the high end stuff… I see these places all coming down… eventually… as they do come down they will get slurped up by people with money… so it will take awhile to get something for a million but no way does it hurt to try.
SD Realtor
May 11, 2008 at 4:20 PM #202549ParticipantHi nyb –
I live in Scripps and specialize in the I15 corridor. I know La Costa Valley and the coastal areas very well but I would not say I am a specialist in these areas. Same goes with the what I call the eastern rim which includes Cielo, Crosby etc.. Both Jim Klinge and sdr have offices that are in the north county coastal area and would be considered neighborhood experts in those regions. Not sure if the EXACT submarket they focus in is RSF or not. They can comment.
As far as submitting a 15-20% lowball offer to any of the listings in the Crosby I would say that you would have a better chance of success in July then May. That may not preclude you from trying though. Each listing needs to be analyzed in terms of length on the market, level of distress or possible distress, etc… With that said, could it hurt to lob them an offer? No I don’t think it could at all. One thing for sure, you never know if you don’t try right? Also you let them know politely that you don’t mean to be insulting or anything like that, and if they don’t take it you check back in a few weeks.
As for the a sample of Crosby dues let’s look at the 16991 Going My Way home that was originally at 1.579 and is now 1.399. It has been on the market 285 days. They slid the price down a few times at the end of 07 and the beginning of 08 but have not budged since then. Are they due for another notch down? Absolutely. Will they notch it down 20%? My read on sellers like this is not a chance. Now I am only looking at one mapcode within the Crosby which is 1169 A2 and there have been 2 closed sales in all of 08 back in Feb. There are NO pendings and there are 7 active listings. Similarly this same listing was listed last year and expired. So to say these guys have been on the market a long time is an understatement. Are these sellers potentially in distress? Potentially they are.
As for your costs of living there? Right now they list the HOA at 475 a month and 6500 a year MR. If you got it for say 1.2M just to use a nice number you are looking at a minimum of 2k a month between property tax, hoa and mr. So that is what, 1.8%? I am to lazy to bring up the calc tool on my laptop…
Anyways like all of the high end stuff… I see these places all coming down… eventually… as they do come down they will get slurped up by people with money… so it will take awhile to get something for a million but no way does it hurt to try.
SD Realtor
May 11, 2008 at 4:20 PM #202587ParticipantHi nyb –
I live in Scripps and specialize in the I15 corridor. I know La Costa Valley and the coastal areas very well but I would not say I am a specialist in these areas. Same goes with the what I call the eastern rim which includes Cielo, Crosby etc.. Both Jim Klinge and sdr have offices that are in the north county coastal area and would be considered neighborhood experts in those regions. Not sure if the EXACT submarket they focus in is RSF or not. They can comment.
As far as submitting a 15-20% lowball offer to any of the listings in the Crosby I would say that you would have a better chance of success in July then May. That may not preclude you from trying though. Each listing needs to be analyzed in terms of length on the market, level of distress or possible distress, etc… With that said, could it hurt to lob them an offer? No I don’t think it could at all. One thing for sure, you never know if you don’t try right? Also you let them know politely that you don’t mean to be insulting or anything like that, and if they don’t take it you check back in a few weeks.
As for the a sample of Crosby dues let’s look at the 16991 Going My Way home that was originally at 1.579 and is now 1.399. It has been on the market 285 days. They slid the price down a few times at the end of 07 and the beginning of 08 but have not budged since then. Are they due for another notch down? Absolutely. Will they notch it down 20%? My read on sellers like this is not a chance. Now I am only looking at one mapcode within the Crosby which is 1169 A2 and there have been 2 closed sales in all of 08 back in Feb. There are NO pendings and there are 7 active listings. Similarly this same listing was listed last year and expired. So to say these guys have been on the market a long time is an understatement. Are these sellers potentially in distress? Potentially they are.
As for your costs of living there? Right now they list the HOA at 475 a month and 6500 a year MR. If you got it for say 1.2M just to use a nice number you are looking at a minimum of 2k a month between property tax, hoa and mr. So that is what, 1.8%? I am to lazy to bring up the calc tool on my laptop…
Anyways like all of the high end stuff… I see these places all coming down… eventually… as they do come down they will get slurped up by people with money… so it will take awhile to get something for a million but no way does it hurt to try.
SD Realtor
May 11, 2008 at 9:01 PM #202503sdrealtor
ParticipantNY,
I’m a bit surprised no one has pointed out Olivenhain as an area for you to watch and/or check out. It is a fabulous area close to everything with everything you would want. Think Colts Neck/Holmdel if you know those areas in NJ. There are lots of 1/2 acre to 2 acre properties there with mature trees. If you have any questions, I’d be happy to point you in the proper direction. My true expertise lies in everything along the coast from Carmel Valley/Del Mar to Oceanside. More specifically my greatest expertise is in Encinitas/South Carlsbad (La Costa). I can pretty much tell you who your neighbors are, what builders are best, which floorplans have/will continue to sell best, what street and even what side of the street you would want to live on. Having grown up back East for about 30 years, it is the closest place I have found in SoCal to having a real sense of place and/or community.As for RSF, I wouldnt hold my hopes up too high of getting something other than a teardown anywhere close to $1M. The areas you mentioned like The Crosby/Cielo arent true RSF. They are closer to Escondido than RSF. I’m not sure what part of NY you are from but if you crave access to anything you will likely feel very isolated out there. I come from a long line of NYers and could never live that far out.
BTW, what part of NY are you from?
sdr
May 11, 2008 at 9:01 PM #202550ParticipantNY,
I’m a bit surprised no one has pointed out Olivenhain as an area for you to watch and/or check out. It is a fabulous area close to everything with everything you would want. Think Colts Neck/Holmdel if you know those areas in NJ. There are lots of 1/2 acre to 2 acre properties there with mature trees. If you have any questions, I’d be happy to point you in the proper direction. My true expertise lies in everything along the coast from Carmel Valley/Del Mar to Oceanside. More specifically my greatest expertise is in Encinitas/South Carlsbad (La Costa). I can pretty much tell you who your neighbors are, what builders are best, which floorplans have/will continue to sell best, what street and even what side of the street you would want to live on. Having grown up back East for about 30 years, it is the closest place I have found in SoCal to having a real sense of place and/or community.As for RSF, I wouldnt hold my hopes up too high of getting something other than a teardown anywhere close to $1M. The areas you mentioned like The Crosby/Cielo arent true RSF. They are closer to Escondido than RSF. I’m not sure what part of NY you are from but if you crave access to anything you will likely feel very isolated out there. I come from a long line of NYers and could never live that far out.
BTW, what part of NY are you from?
sdr
May 11, 2008 at 9:01 PM #202575ParticipantNY,
I’m a bit surprised no one has pointed out Olivenhain as an area for you to watch and/or check out. It is a fabulous area close to everything with everything you would want. Think Colts Neck/Holmdel if you know those areas in NJ. There are lots of 1/2 acre to 2 acre properties there with mature trees. If you have any questions, I’d be happy to point you in the proper direction. My true expertise lies in everything along the coast from Carmel Valley/Del Mar to Oceanside. More specifically my greatest expertise is in Encinitas/South Carlsbad (La Costa). I can pretty much tell you who your neighbors are, what builders are best, which floorplans have/will continue to sell best, what street and even what side of the street you would want to live on. Having grown up back East for about 30 years, it is the closest place I have found in SoCal to having a real sense of place and/or community.As for RSF, I wouldnt hold my hopes up too high of getting something other than a teardown anywhere close to $1M. The areas you mentioned like The Crosby/Cielo arent true RSF. They are closer to Escondido than RSF. I’m not sure what part of NY you are from but if you crave access to anything you will likely feel very isolated out there. I come from a long line of NYers and could never live that far out.
BTW, what part of NY are you from?
sdr
May 11, 2008 at 9:01 PM #202602ParticipantNY,
I’m a bit surprised no one has pointed out Olivenhain as an area for you to watch and/or check out. It is a fabulous area close to everything with everything you would want. Think Colts Neck/Holmdel if you know those areas in NJ. There are lots of 1/2 acre to 2 acre properties there with mature trees. If you have any questions, I’d be happy to point you in the proper direction. My true expertise lies in everything along the coast from Carmel Valley/Del Mar to Oceanside. More specifically my greatest expertise is in Encinitas/South Carlsbad (La Costa). I can pretty much tell you who your neighbors are, what builders are best, which floorplans have/will continue to sell best, what street and even what side of the street you would want to live on. Having grown up back East for about 30 years, it is the closest place I have found in SoCal to having a real sense of place and/or community.As for RSF, I wouldnt hold my hopes up too high of getting something other than a teardown anywhere close to $1M. The areas you mentioned like The Crosby/Cielo arent true RSF. They are closer to Escondido than RSF. I’m not sure what part of NY you are from but if you crave access to anything you will likely feel very isolated out there. I come from a long line of NYers and could never live that far out.
BTW, what part of NY are you from?
sdr
May 11, 2008 at 9:01 PM #202637ParticipantNY,
I’m a bit surprised no one has pointed out Olivenhain as an area for you to watch and/or check out. It is a fabulous area close to everything with everything you would want. Think Colts Neck/Holmdel if you know those areas in NJ. There are lots of 1/2 acre to 2 acre properties there with mature trees. If you have any questions, I’d be happy to point you in the proper direction. My true expertise lies in everything along the coast from Carmel Valley/Del Mar to Oceanside. More specifically my greatest expertise is in Encinitas/South Carlsbad (La Costa). I can pretty much tell you who your neighbors are, what builders are best, which floorplans have/will continue to sell best, what street and even what side of the street you would want to live on. Having grown up back East for about 30 years, it is the closest place I have found in SoCal to having a real sense of place and/or community.As for RSF, I wouldnt hold my hopes up too high of getting something other than a teardown anywhere close to $1M. The areas you mentioned like The Crosby/Cielo arent true RSF. They are closer to Escondido than RSF. I’m not sure what part of NY you are from but if you crave access to anything you will likely feel very isolated out there. I come from a long line of NYers and could never live that far out.
BTW, what part of NY are you from?
sdr
May 11, 2008 at 10:53 PM #202543Anonymous
GuestHi NY,
I echo everyones comments, do avoid Oceanside. I’m following The Crosby and The Lakes fairly closely and doubt you’ll find any takers at $1mil. Have a look at San Antonio Rose St. in Crosby, I’ve seen a couple homes pop up there for $1.1 but they are under 4k sq. ft. More info here: http://www.redfin.com/search#lat=33.03807902341769&long=-117.14916944503784&zoomLevel=16®ion_id=38126®ion_type=2&market=socal&v=2
Lennar is building 2 new communities in the Lakes (models open in June), Espada and Revena. TBD on pricing but they say “low millions”.
I like Scripps Preserve in Stonebridge, but don’t like the heat that far east. Traffic can also be a problem during commute hours but it doesn’t sound like that is an issue for you. The supporting infrastructure in Scripps is also a bit older than you’d find in west of the 15 in 92127.
The tax rate in The Lakes and the Crosby are similar, about 1.6%. This includes special assessments/MR. Homeowners in The Lakes is about $540 and I believe the Crosby is around $520.
+B
May 11, 2008 at 10:53 PM #202590GuestHi NY,
I echo everyones comments, do avoid Oceanside. I’m following The Crosby and The Lakes fairly closely and doubt you’ll find any takers at $1mil. Have a look at San Antonio Rose St. in Crosby, I’ve seen a couple homes pop up there for $1.1 but they are under 4k sq. ft. More info here: http://www.redfin.com/search#lat=33.03807902341769&long=-117.14916944503784&zoomLevel=16®ion_id=38126®ion_type=2&market=socal&v=2
Lennar is building 2 new communities in the Lakes (models open in June), Espada and Revena. TBD on pricing but they say “low millions”.
I like Scripps Preserve in Stonebridge, but don’t like the heat that far east. Traffic can also be a problem during commute hours but it doesn’t sound like that is an issue for you. The supporting infrastructure in Scripps is also a bit older than you’d find in west of the 15 in 92127.
The tax rate in The Lakes and the Crosby are similar, about 1.6%. This includes special assessments/MR. Homeowners in The Lakes is about $540 and I believe the Crosby is around $520.
+B
May 11, 2008 at 10:53 PM #202615GuestHi NY,
I echo everyones comments, do avoid Oceanside. I’m following The Crosby and The Lakes fairly closely and doubt you’ll find any takers at $1mil. Have a look at San Antonio Rose St. in Crosby, I’ve seen a couple homes pop up there for $1.1 but they are under 4k sq. ft. More info here: http://www.redfin.com/search#lat=33.03807902341769&long=-117.14916944503784&zoomLevel=16®ion_id=38126®ion_type=2&market=socal&v=2
Lennar is building 2 new communities in the Lakes (models open in June), Espada and Revena. TBD on pricing but they say “low millions”.
I like Scripps Preserve in Stonebridge, but don’t like the heat that far east. Traffic can also be a problem during commute hours but it doesn’t sound like that is an issue for you. The supporting infrastructure in Scripps is also a bit older than you’d find in west of the 15 in 92127.
The tax rate in The Lakes and the Crosby are similar, about 1.6%. This includes special assessments/MR. Homeowners in The Lakes is about $540 and I believe the Crosby is around $520.
+B
May 11, 2008 at 10:53 PM #202640GuestHi NY,
I echo everyones comments, do avoid Oceanside. I’m following The Crosby and The Lakes fairly closely and doubt you’ll find any takers at $1mil. Have a look at San Antonio Rose St. in Crosby, I’ve seen a couple homes pop up there for $1.1 but they are under 4k sq. ft. More info here: http://www.redfin.com/search#lat=33.03807902341769&long=-117.14916944503784&zoomLevel=16®ion_id=38126®ion_type=2&market=socal&v=2
Lennar is building 2 new communities in the Lakes (models open in June), Espada and Revena. TBD on pricing but they say “low millions”.
I like Scripps Preserve in Stonebridge, but don’t like the heat that far east. Traffic can also be a problem during commute hours but it doesn’t sound like that is an issue for you. The supporting infrastructure in Scripps is also a bit older than you’d find in west of the 15 in 92127.
The tax rate in The Lakes and the Crosby are similar, about 1.6%. This includes special assessments/MR. Homeowners in The Lakes is about $540 and I believe the Crosby is around $520.
+B
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