Where did the inventory go?

[PerryChase]

Our Realtor posters have reported a decrease in inventory, and sales picking up.

OCRenter, posed an interesting question on his blog. Where did the inventory go?
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2007/02/so-where-did-inventory-go.html

If you look back at last year’s inventory and sales, you promptly realize that not all who listed sold. Well, what happened to those houses? Are the owners renting them out? Are the owners stay put? Or are they going NOD?

I don’t have access to inventory and sales data to surmise as to what happened. I wonder if we have “pent up” inventory ready to flood the market.

[4plexowner]

I have insight into one of the fall listings – this is Jim’s story:

Jim had his house on the market in Sep, Oct and Nov – there was little activity and no offers although he was priced in the lower end of his market. Jim took his house off the market in December so he could come back on in 2007 as a ‘new’ listing.

Now, a house down the street has listed for $50K less than the lower end of Jim’s listing price from the fall.

Since Jim doesn’t have to sell he is now thinking about his options in light of another $50K drop in prices.

Jim still thinks his house is worth its peak 2005 price and now a neighbor is on the market for a full $100K less than that peak price – ouch!

~

I think this may be happening for some of San Diego’s would-be-sellers – they have a number in their head for what their house is worth but the market (reality) no longer supports that number. In Jim’s case, there is a full $100K difference between the current market and the number in his head – if he sells at today’s price he will be ‘losing’ that $100K. Jim hasn’t decided whether to re-list his house or not – he may remodel instead of selling and buying a move-up home.

[PD]

I think that you are right and that a lot of people who tried to sell in ’06 have decided to ride out the downturn… if they can. I know of mulitple houses in my area that are off the market because they couldn’t get their wishing price. Maybe they were just trying to cash in? Or maybe people really believe that prices will start to go up again and are just waiting for the magic bounce before they all pile back onto the market?

Now that subprime is blowing up, it will be interesting to see what happens to the “starter home” markets. I bet we see more decreases in sales volume. Further, I think a lot more houses are going to fall out of escrow because they can’t get the money.

On a slightly different topic, I’ve noticed that there are one or two realtors here in Coronado who have every single one of their listings priced much higher than comparables. WTF? I drove by two houses for sale yesterday on the same street. They were very similiar houses but one was listed 20% higher.

[no_such_reality]

It’s a monopoly/oligopoly thing. Basically, when you have only a few that handle almost all of the housing in a neighborhood, they have pricing power. They also can create the psychology in the neighborhood. You can look at comps that say $800K all you want, but if there are ten homes in the neighborhood with one or two realtors that have them all listed between $950K an $1.1M, most buyers will start to mentally equate $950K with the low end of that market.

It’s a lot like an ipod, if you want the Apple label and not a comparable machine, you’re stuck paying MSRP, which is basically Apple’s Wish Pricing which they can currently enforce.

[PerryChase]

I agree with the psychology thing. I’m been looking at houses on ZipRealty for a while and I’ve been desensitized to what “real value” is. I now tend to spot “relative value,” that is value relative to other listings.

Then one my friends relocated to Indianapolis. So I looked at real estate there just for the heck of it. Well, in Indianapolis (a big foreclosure market) you can get houses for less then $100/sf, even in the toniest neighborhoods. That’s what brought me back to reality of how way, way, way overpriced San Diego is.

[sddreaming]

Probably half of my ziprealty listings went inactive on me in January. I think most of these people wanted to see if they could make an easy few million by selling their homes at bubble prices. When low or no offers came, they took them off.

[PD]

A couple of my ziprealty listings went inactive today. The funny thing is that I was watching both of them because they had high DOM and the wishing price was too high. I expect to see them again. 🙂

[BuyerWillEPB]

Today, I observed two houses near where I live in Clairemont.

One has been taken off the market completely. The listing has been removed from Zip Realty, and the For Sale sign has been removed from the front lawn. They had an asking price of $499K for about 4 months, I estimate. I don’t think it sold, and it has not shown up in Zillow as recently sold.

The other house just around the corner from the above house has been taken off the Zip Realty listing, but they still have the For Sale sign in the front lawn. I expect this one will be relisted soon. The previous asking (wishing) price was $620K. Perhaps they are taking a rest to reconsider. 🙂

[sddreaming]

Here’s an interesting one. It’s in Carmel Valley. MLS #076007878. It was for sale in 2006 for:

12/05/06 — $2,300,000 to $2,200,000
01/15/07 — $2,200,000 to $2,150,000

It then went inactive. Accoring to Zillow, there was a sales transaction for $1M. It then went back on the market as MLS #076007878. Oh, gosh, that’s the same number. Now it is on sale for $1,900,000. What is up with this?

[sdcellar]

Unfortunately, I believe Zillow lists some loans and foreclosure sales as ordinary sales as well, so it can be hard to tell what’s going on sometimes. Others with access to better sources can differentiate.

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