Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Where are you putting your investment $$$ ??
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Diego Mamani.
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October 19, 2007 at 2:29 PM #90199October 19, 2007 at 2:29 PM #90210
stockstradr
ParticipantMyself I’m mostly in cash, gold, and TIPS, with a few speculative bets against the American consumer (SCC, retailer put options). My expectations include continued dollar decline, falling discretionary consumer spending during the winter gradually developing into recession, eventually second round of credit crunch, this time driven by mass defaults in Prime/Alt-A sectors. When the dust settles, time will come to buy a house and move into stocks.
Brilliant. Totally agree, with minor exception that I have far more than “a few speculative bets” on the American Consumer (stopping their credit card / refi spending, causing a recession and and stock market collapse)
Weeks like this one are 7% (up) weeks for my portfolio. Yes, I understand the risks (and benefits!) of LEVERAGE. However, in the spirit of “full disclosure” I admit I’m getting my butt kicked on the Bear positions I took on oil at $82/bbl.
Regarding future Dow moves…
Let that American Consumer go home now and get frightened from reading scare headlines about how the Dow dropped 3.5% this week, ahead of the 1987 Crash anniversary. Let some tasty panic build ahead of Mondays market open. A 500+ point drop in the Dow on Monday would be just what the Doctor ordered. I’m not predicting it, just saying it is within the realm of possibility.October 19, 2007 at 2:38 PM #90201New_Renter
ParticipantRunning Bear,
Care to reveal which Swiss Bank you chose, and also what others you considered? What is the minimum account size they will accept? I have heard everything from $50K to $1M, depending on the bank. I am seriously considering making a trip over there myself.Until then, Everbank foreign currency CD’s are the hot ticket. My understanding is that the only way to open a Swiss account is to go there in person…..is this true?
October 19, 2007 at 2:38 PM #90212ParticipantRunning Bear,
Care to reveal which Swiss Bank you chose, and also what others you considered? What is the minimum account size they will accept? I have heard everything from $50K to $1M, depending on the bank. I am seriously considering making a trip over there myself.Until then, Everbank foreign currency CD’s are the hot ticket. My understanding is that the only way to open a Swiss account is to go there in person…..is this true?
October 19, 2007 at 4:06 PM #90225Running Bear
ParticipantGents,
I had a nice little chuckle with your surprise that a bank can’t be real if it doesn’t do loans. I discussed with some friends recently how our current banking system is not the 0% risk that people assume it is. Let me ask you a simple question. Why were banks created in the first place? Was it an investment vehicle? Or a place to hold and protect your wealth? How about this one. Do you want your money where you tell your bank to put it or leveraged over and over again on residential and commercial loans in bubble markets? So far this year we have had 3 banks taken over by the FDIC. With the coming housing crash and following commercial market tank, do you really think we won’t lose any more banks?
The answer to your question about how the bank makes its money is through fees charged to customers like me. I pay a small fee for the investments I make just like a broker charges and for holding my deposits in their bank. I have no problem paying these fees in order to know that my money is sitting in their bank and not in a high rise condo project in Miami.
Opening a bank account like the one I did is for one main reason, wealth protection. I searched for the bank with the cleanest balance sheet and as little risk to financial turmoil. It will cost me a fee to have that protection but because of the size of the money I am moving there it is worth it to me. This isn’t necessary for every person.
For the person asking whether you have to go over there to open an account the answer is yes for the private banks.
I am not expecting large gains from this move. I think the short term outlook for the markets is negative and I will park liquid assets over there and wait for the right time to make my investments. Having a very safe 5% return on my investments for the next year is completely acceptable for me.
Hope I answered all your questions.
October 19, 2007 at 4:06 PM #90236ParticipantGents,
I had a nice little chuckle with your surprise that a bank can’t be real if it doesn’t do loans. I discussed with some friends recently how our current banking system is not the 0% risk that people assume it is. Let me ask you a simple question. Why were banks created in the first place? Was it an investment vehicle? Or a place to hold and protect your wealth? How about this one. Do you want your money where you tell your bank to put it or leveraged over and over again on residential and commercial loans in bubble markets? So far this year we have had 3 banks taken over by the FDIC. With the coming housing crash and following commercial market tank, do you really think we won’t lose any more banks?
The answer to your question about how the bank makes its money is through fees charged to customers like me. I pay a small fee for the investments I make just like a broker charges and for holding my deposits in their bank. I have no problem paying these fees in order to know that my money is sitting in their bank and not in a high rise condo project in Miami.
Opening a bank account like the one I did is for one main reason, wealth protection. I searched for the bank with the cleanest balance sheet and as little risk to financial turmoil. It will cost me a fee to have that protection but because of the size of the money I am moving there it is worth it to me. This isn’t necessary for every person.
For the person asking whether you have to go over there to open an account the answer is yes for the private banks.
I am not expecting large gains from this move. I think the short term outlook for the markets is negative and I will park liquid assets over there and wait for the right time to make my investments. Having a very safe 5% return on my investments for the next year is completely acceptable for me.
Hope I answered all your questions.
October 19, 2007 at 4:18 PM #90231mgubnyc1
ParticipantI was thinking this is a safe place to park 800,000, after all it does come with a 30,000 theatre! all window dressings and maybe they would even throw in the custom furniture for another 20 or 30K this is possibly the best deal in french valley at this time!!!
check it out, it won’t last long at this price!!
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=962133
October 19, 2007 at 4:18 PM #90242ParticipantI was thinking this is a safe place to park 800,000, after all it does come with a 30,000 theatre! all window dressings and maybe they would even throw in the custom furniture for another 20 or 30K this is possibly the best deal in french valley at this time!!!
check it out, it won’t last long at this price!!
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=962133
October 19, 2007 at 4:25 PM #90233nostradamus
ParticipantHi Running Bear,
Can’t you safely get 5% on up to $50M with a local bank on the CDARS network? They spread your deposit amongst as many banks as necessary to ensure you get full FDIC coverage:
With your Swiss account are you hedged against the weakening dollar?
October 19, 2007 at 4:25 PM #90244ParticipantHi Running Bear,
Can’t you safely get 5% on up to $50M with a local bank on the CDARS network? They spread your deposit amongst as many banks as necessary to ensure you get full FDIC coverage:
With your Swiss account are you hedged against the weakening dollar?
October 19, 2007 at 4:41 PM #90237ParticipantRunning Bear, I would really appreciate it if you could respond with the name of the private swiss bank you chose. This would potentially save me (and anyone else considering this) alot of time doing the research. I’ve done a bit of of looking already, just enough to know that there a quite a few choices over there in private institutions. Thanks in advance.
October 19, 2007 at 4:41 PM #90248ParticipantRunning Bear, I would really appreciate it if you could respond with the name of the private swiss bank you chose. This would potentially save me (and anyone else considering this) alot of time doing the research. I’ve done a bit of of looking already, just enough to know that there a quite a few choices over there in private institutions. Thanks in advance.
October 19, 2007 at 4:47 PM #90241ParticipantThat is the point. I don’t want to be in dollar denominated assets right now. I think we will have a short term bounce in the dollar but my long term outlook is negative. We have lost over 40% of the value of the dollar over the last 6 years and that was when our economy was going strong and the Fed didn’t have its finger on the button ready to flood the market with credit and money at a moments notice.
I encourage you to do some reading on Helo Ben and see what you think his philosophy is. He was a student of the Great Depression and his conclusion was the Fed at the time didn’t cut rates fast enough and therefore caused it to last much longer then it should have. If our country is heading toward a large asset deflation and recession, what do you think he will do? I believe he will very aggressively cut interest rates and flood the market with cash and credit. What effect do you think this will have on the dollar and your wealth held in dollars?
If you believe the housing market is tanking and going down, you need to keep looking down that road and see what the greater consequences are for this economy. If you think that housing is going to drop by a large amount just so we can buy some good deals, you aren’t looking at the broader economy.
The last point is if you believe this country is the only place where there is a housing bubble and credit bubble you need to start reading some articles in England, Spain, Ireland, etc. There is a global asset bubble/credit bubble and I am prepared for the worse case scenario but hoping for the best. We will know much more in the next 18 months how a lot of this stuff will fall out and I will move out of my ultra conservative stance when I have a better read.
I see a large downside risk here in stocks without a huge upside benefit.
my2cents
October 19, 2007 at 4:47 PM #90252ParticipantThat is the point. I don’t want to be in dollar denominated assets right now. I think we will have a short term bounce in the dollar but my long term outlook is negative. We have lost over 40% of the value of the dollar over the last 6 years and that was when our economy was going strong and the Fed didn’t have its finger on the button ready to flood the market with credit and money at a moments notice.
I encourage you to do some reading on Helo Ben and see what you think his philosophy is. He was a student of the Great Depression and his conclusion was the Fed at the time didn’t cut rates fast enough and therefore caused it to last much longer then it should have. If our country is heading toward a large asset deflation and recession, what do you think he will do? I believe he will very aggressively cut interest rates and flood the market with cash and credit. What effect do you think this will have on the dollar and your wealth held in dollars?
If you believe the housing market is tanking and going down, you need to keep looking down that road and see what the greater consequences are for this economy. If you think that housing is going to drop by a large amount just so we can buy some good deals, you aren’t looking at the broader economy.
The last point is if you believe this country is the only place where there is a housing bubble and credit bubble you need to start reading some articles in England, Spain, Ireland, etc. There is a global asset bubble/credit bubble and I am prepared for the worse case scenario but hoping for the best. We will know much more in the next 18 months how a lot of this stuff will fall out and I will move out of my ultra conservative stance when I have a better read.
I see a large downside risk here in stocks without a huge upside benefit.
my2cents
October 19, 2007 at 6:05 PM #90251
CoronitaParticipantMyself I'm mostly in cash, gold, and TIPS, with a few speculative bets against the American consumer (SCC, retailer put options). My expectations include continued dollar decline, falling discretionary consumer spending during the winter gradually developing into recession, eventually second round of credit crunch, this time driven by mass defaults in Prime/Alt-A sectors. When the dust settles, time will come to buy a house and move into stocks.
Brilliant. Totally agree, with minor exception that I have far more than "a few speculative bets" on the American Consumer (stopping their credit card / refi spending, causing a recession and and stock market collapse)
Weeks like this one are 7% (up) weeks for my portfolio. Yes, I understand the risks (and benefits!) of LEVERAGE. However, in the spirit of "full disclosure" I admit I'm getting my butt kicked on the Bear positions I took on oil at $82/bbl.
Regarding future Dow moves…
Let that American Consumer go home now and get frightened from reading scare headlines about how the Dow dropped 3.5% this week, ahead of the 1987 Crash anniversary. Let some tasty panic build ahead of Mondays market open. A 500+ point drop in the Dow on Monday would be just what the Doctor ordered. I'm not predicting it, just saying it is within the realm of possibility.I knew you would post today. You're getting to be pretty predictable. 🙂
BTW, I'm curious? Does your 7% increase in your portfolio include 7 percent from the lowest of the loss, or 7% returns? The only reason why I ask, is that I recall you mentioned you went "heavy" into the SDS reverse index fund a few days after the rally inspired 1/2 point interest cut. and I recall trading in the mid to upper 52's. Just wondering that 7% increase would take you around to the 55's which SDS isn't currently trading at. Yes, I have a good memory. 🙂
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