About a year after a recession has been announced.
First, we find out about recessions more than 2 quarters after the fact.
Second, it takes some time for a recession to have an effect on housing, because people lose their jobs first and their houses later, or they have to sell to make ends meet.
Third, psychology is negatively affected after the latter 2.
That applies to cyclical recessions, not like the 2008 housing led recession.
It will be time to buy again when interest rates are back to at least 6%. I don’t think there will be a crash anytime soon, though. Not next year, not in 2020.
[quote=ltsdd]It will be time to buy again when interest rates are back to at least 6%. I don’t think there will be a crash anytime soon, though. Not next year, not in 2020.[/quote]
I think high/rising rates would indicate a peak. When things are bad, the Fed will drive rates down to get activity moving again
Based on the last cycle, 3-5 years after the peak. Admittedly your area may very. My bestie and Temecula guy got smoking deals in Temecula earlier, because it crashed earlier. I bout in MV in Aug 12 and missed the bottom by 9 months or so.
If my memory serves me the peak was somewhere between Aug of 05 and Aug of 06, depending on which set of numbers you were looking at. I tend to remember it as the former. So for me the bottom came 6 years after. The last cycle was ahistoric and the largest ever seen so our mileage may very.
Also if mortgages go back above historical averages, something like 8% on a 30 year fixed I’m guessing it’ll be time to buy.
Looking at aggregate numbers is one thing…. but when you buy, compare your PPSF purchase within a neighborhood. I’m so smart in the art of the deal because I paid the lowest PPSF, not once but twice. That was quite a feat, well past the statistical bottom.
It’s like a game. You need a sense of competition and humor.
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